The Favorite: Gonzaga
Even after a 31-2 season, many onlookers doubt whether the West Coast Conference champs can hang with the big boys. Those people are neglecting Gonzaga’s eight wins against NCAA Tournament teams, as well as its 5-0 mark against the Big 12. The Bulldogs combination of talent, size and depth is unheard of in a mid-major. After beefing up from 215 pounds to 238 during a redshirt season last year, junior center Kelly Olynyk returned to the floor as one of the NCAA’s best players. He starts alongside versatile power forward Elias Harris, with 7-foot-1 center Przemek Karnowski and 6-foot-9 forward Sam Dower contributing off the bench. Guards Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell both provide three-point shooting, while David Stockton subs in to make highlight-reel assists. The unsung hero for the Zags is WCC defensive player of the year Mike Hart, the nation’s best effort player. Hart has only ATTEMPTED 33 shots in 552 minutes this season, instead earning playing time with defense and rebounding.
Top Challenger: Ohio State
The Buckeyes’ calling card is defense. Point guard Aaron Craft is the premier perimeter defender in the NCAA and can be expected to relentlessly lock down any opponent’s top option. Where Ohio State sometimes lacks is scoring. Power forward Deshaun Thomas is one of the nation’s top offensive threats, averaging 19.5 points per game. Because 80 percent of his shots are jumpers (fact check this on hoop-math.com), he has the ability to stretch the floor against bigger defenders. But, when matched up with a smaller player, Thomas can score in the post. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, Thomas is the only consistent offensive option. Craft has shown the ability to score in spurts, at times taking over games on that end of the floor. Still, his shooting ability and raw talent are limited. Lenzelle Smith is a decent scorer, while LaQuinton Ross is active, if not always efficient, off the bench. Shannon Scott brings a distributing and defensive spark, while Amir Williams and Evan Ravenel rebound and protect the rim in the middle. Elite athlete/awesome dunker Sam Thompson rounds out the Ohio State rotation.
Storyline to Watch: Is New Mexico a legitimate contender?
The Lobos swept the Mountain West regular season and tournament titles, but how much does that really mean? KenPom rates the MWC the NCAA’s third toughest conference, but few aside from the real junkies have seen many of those teams play. New Mexico’s efficiency profile isn’t as strong as you’d expect from a 29-win team, thanks mostly to 16 wins by single digits. Point guard and MWC Player of the Year Kendall Williams has shown the ability to take over games, including a 46-point outburst in a win at Colorado State. Alex Kirk and Cameron Bairstow are a legitimate frontcourt tandem, and Tony Snell is an athletic perimeter defender who brings intermittent scoring. Doubt the Lobos at your own risk.
Player to Watch: Marshall Henderson, Ole Miss guard
Henderson is a gunner, plain and simple. The charismatic junior and quote machine is averaging 20.1 points per game. Although he’s launched 367 three-point attempts — just 13 shy of the NCAA single-season record — Henderson shoots a respectable 35.7 percent. Will he be stifled against a Wisconsin team that slows tempo and rarely gives up looks from the outside, or will Henderson catch fire and propel Ole Miss into the round of 32?
Sleeper: Belmont
The Bruins’ dynamic guard duo of Kerron Johnson and Ian Clark is one of the best in the field. Johnson is an elite driver and distributor, while Clark is a sharpshooter and lockdown defender. Despite rarely bringing full-court pressure, Belmont ranks ninth in the nation by forcing turnovers on 25 percent of opponents’ possessions. Arizona point guard Mark Lyons has been only average as a distributor in his first year with the program after playing off the ball at Xavier for three seasons. Arizona already takes a lot of threes, and Belmont’s pressure will make it even more difficult for the Wildcats to get the ball inside.
Contact Greg Luca at gluca@alligator.org.
