With about eight minutes left and Florida nursing a four-point lead, Erving Walker drives the lane.
As he leaves his feet, Gators fans collectively inhale. After three seasons watching Walker at the point, they’re prepared to let out the frustrated groan that has accompanied so many of his turnovers.
What would it be this time? Would he land for a travel? Force up a wild layup that has no hope of cutting through the trees? Dump it off out of bounds?
On Saturday against Mississippi State, it was none of the above. Walker found Brad Beal sliding away from his man and into the weak-side corner, getting him the rock for an easy catch-and-shoot three.
Over the last five games, those plays have become commonplace.
Florida’s turnover numbers have been slashed drastically during its current winning steak, and the Gators’ ability to keep that number low will be as critical as any factor in determining the team’s fate.
Florida is currently tied for fifth in the nation in turnover percentage at 16 percent, almost five percentage points below the NCAA average of 20.7.
But, in the games UF has lost, a barrage of turnovers has led to a breakdown of the usually unstoppable offensive machine.
The four blemishes on Florida’s record were its four worst turnover percentage games of the year, ranging from 15
giveaways against Tennessee up to 20 against Syracuse.
Overall, Florida has averaged 17.3 turnovers in those losses.
In the last five outings, the Gators have given the ball away just 7.8 times per game, three lower than their season average and nearly 10 below the figure they have posted in losses.
Coach Billy Donovan said the recent surge is a result of the team making better decisions and learning how to utilize each other, things that had to develop during the first 15 games.
Now, the results are starting to show.
With six minutes left in Saturday’s first half, Beal used a Patric Young screen and then found the big man rolling to the basket without a moment’s hesitation, floating a lob his way for an easy two-handed slam.
Beal has just five turnovers in the last five games, a stark contrast from his early-season struggles. After averaging 2.6 giveaways per game during the first 16 games, he has had just one turnover per contest in the last five. This season he has posted five games with five or more turnovers and, not coincidentally, Florida has lost four of them.
To some extent, the same is true for Florida’s other two primary guards, Walker and Kenny Boynton. Walker has eight games with three or more turnovers this season, and Florida has lost four of them.
Boynton has four games with three or more turnovers, and UF has lost three of them.
While turnovers are obviously critical in and of themselves, they have also affected other areas of UF’s game.
To take stat-nerdiness to the next level, the correlation between turnovers and shooting percentage for UF is minus-.47. That means that as UF’s turnover count has gone up, there’s been a moderate relationship to shooting percentage going down.
This makes sense, given that turnovers break up the flow of the game and take UF’s many talented shooters out of their rhythm.
With so many weapons, all Florida needs to do is keep limiting giveaways to have a shot at a deep tournament run.
Contact Greg Luca at gluca@alligator.org.
