Politics is a rough-and-tumble business. More than that, it’s also confusing. But rest assured, dear reader, this columnist is the one-stop shop for all of your political questions and quandaries. So without delay, let’s clarify some political points your Politico friend keeps on talking about:
1. No, Sen. Ted Cruz did not have a debate "Oops" moment.
Before we talk about Cruz, let’s go over what an oops moment actually is. Back in 2012, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas made a big political mistake. During one of the debates, the good Gov. outlined which federal agencies he would eliminate. He boldly announced he would get rid of three agencies: the Department of Education, the Department of Commerce and… what was the third one? He forgot the agency on the big stage. Oops.
Now Cruz, ironically also from Texas, during the last GOP debate declared which federal agencies he would eliminate — also ironic. Like Perry, he gave us a bold odd number: "Five major agencies that I would eliminate: the IRS, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Energy, uh, the Department of Commerce and (Housing and Urban Development)." Conservatives really don’t like the Department of Commerce.
The Cruz moment is different from the Perry flop because Cruz is a far superior debater and has a superior intellect. Perry’s moment destroyed him because it played into the perception that he was slow-witted and not all that bright. Cruz does not have that problem. He is rhetorically gifted, Ivy League educated and can debate circles around any Democrat. Comparing the two Texans is not warranted.
2. Yes, Gov. John Kasich will be the next to drop.
All of my liberal friends love Kasich. However, being the left’s favorite Republican probably doesn’t play well in conservative nation. That’s strike one. He also acts like a self-loathing conservative. He laments the policy positions of grass-roots conservatives. He lambasts their outsider candidates, and he is for every position a GOP primary voter is against: expanding Medicaid, OK-ing same-sex marriage and forging bi-partisanship. Strike two. A third is that he runs on being the former House Budget Chairman back in the Clinton days when he balanced the federal budget — undoubtedly a huge political victory and a huge conservative bona-fide if this was another election year. But it’s not another election year. This is the year of the outsider, the year of anti-Washington. Kasich fits the role of Candidate Washington. Three strikes and Kasich is most likely to drop out.
3. The reason Ben Carson, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are doing well is their temperament.
Stand aside, policy works! At this stage in the presidential election, hard facts and pen-and-paper policy proposals don’t matter. What matters is the most fundamental aspect of politics: Voters have to like a candidate’s temperament. Simple as that.
The electorate is seething at the political status quo. Americans feel that Washington and the elected representatives have left them by the wayside.
Enter Trump stage right and Sanders stage left. Both vent the frustrations of the average American well. Americans feel that even though the powerful won’t listen to them, they will listen to the billionaire and the socialist. Trump and Sanders give voices to the barista, the blue-collar worker, the mechanic and the disgruntled constituent.
Carson does well because of his life story. Keep in mind this is his central life story, not the side details the media was enraptured with. It’s the story about a mother who would not accept a handout, about a son who rose from abject poverty to become one of the most respected neurosurgeons in the world, about the American Dream at its finest. The establishment might laugh off this doctor that says nutty things — which he does — but Americans connect with the man and his story, and they believe at his core he is a good, hardworking Christian. They don’t mind his lack of experience, lack of policy knowledge or lack of biographical oversight. They like his temperament.
Michael Beato is a UF political science senior. His column appears on Mondays.
