Phil: When Florida kicks off its season against Toledo on Saturday at 12:21 p.m. in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, the Gators will be favored by 24 points.
I guess that means the odds makers have short memories.
It was less than a year ago when Florida opened its 2012 season with an extremely unimpressive showing against Bowling Green. The Gators led 17-14 entering the fourth quarter and would have been trailing if Falcons kicker Stephen Stein had not missed a pair of chip-shot field goal attempts.
UF won the game 27-14, but all anyone who cared about the team could talk about is how poorly the offense performed.
I don’t see things going much differently on Saturday. Sure, I am buying into Jeff Driskel having developed into a better quarterback. He certainly has a fun new set of toys in freshmen receivers Demarcus Robinson and Ahmad Fulwood.
But even without starting running back Matt Jones, the Gators are going to try to methodically bludgeon the Rockets with their run game. Because of that, the score is going to stay closer than many Gators fans would prefer.
Joe: If you’ve truly bought into Driskel’s improvement in the passing game, where is your confidence? If Driskel and the receivers are going to go off on any team this year, it will be Toledo.
The Rockets’ pass defense ranked 116th in the NCAA last season by allowing 290.8 yards per game through the air. It’s been a year, but I can’t imagine they’ve made an astronomical (!) improvement in one year’s time.
I know UF is adamant about establishing the run, but c’mon. Why not flex the muscles of the new-and-improved passing game against a team that gives you more margin for error than others?
I can hear offensive coordinator Brent Pease giving the command now: “Driskel, this is Houston. You are clear to launch.”
Like you, I fully expect Florida to pound the ball in the ground game against Toledo. But even if Pease only lets Driskel loose for a couple of long throws, that’s potentially 14 points. That’s already more than half of the spread.
Phil: Joe, since you are so interested in finding team rankings, go to the NCAA website and find where Florida’s passing offense finished the 2012 season.
I don’t have all day, so I will give you some pointers. After selecting passing offense you click through to the last page and keep scrolling toward the bottom.
Yep, there they are, No. 114 nationally.
Oh, and if you take a closer look, you will see four of the six teams in the nation that threw for fewer yards per game than the Gators last season ran the option. That’s just pathetic.
So, while I do believe the UF passing attack will improve, it will not be enough for the Gators to outscore opponents by more than three touchdowns.
Look at last year’s results for some perspective.
Florida had a dominant defense — a unit that lost seven starters and will likely have some regression in 2013 — but still would not have covered a 24-point spread against any of the three “cupcake” opponents it faced.
After sneaking past Bowling Green, Florida escaped with its life against Louisiana-Lafayette and shut out Jacksonville State 23-0. I won’t be expecting anything different Saturday.
Pease will likely be saying, “Houston, we have a problem.”
Joe: You make some compelling points, but I’m going to dismantle your argument faster than your beloved Red Sox collapsed on Bobby Valentine’s watch. Well, I’m going to try to make your argument flame out that spectacularly.
You discount that 2013 marks Driskel’s second season running Pease’s offense. Expect a more confident and assured Driskel under center. Being the clear-cut starting quarterback will help with that.
Florida is confident enough in freshmen Robinson and Fulwood to reduce Loucheiz Purifoy’s role in the offense.
I suspect we’ll see some of Joker Phillips’ influence on how the Gators’ pass-catchers attack the Rockets’ defensive backs.
Also, the Gators should be pretty damn good at running the football even without Matt Jones in the lineup. Toledo’s run defense tied for 78th nationally with 182.3 rushing yards allowed per game.
Even an injury-ravaged version of Florida’s offensive line should have no problem paving the way for Mack Brown, Mark Herndon and Valdez Showers to have good days in the box score.
UF’s offense will be light years (another space joke, because they’re the Rockets!) ahead of Toledo’s defense.
Phil: You’re focusing quite a bit on the UF offense, which I understand, but take a second and look at what the Florida defense will be up against.
Toledo finished 32nd in total offense last season — averaging 445.2 yards (or 111.2 yards more than Florida) per game.
The Rockets return Terrance Owens — a dependable veteran at quarterback — and receivers who several Gators have described as some of the best they will face this season. UF has two new safeties who have not played a single snap together and will be without starting linebacker Antonio Morrison.
Odds are the Gators will not be nearly as sharp Saturday as they will be by the time SEC play begins. A few mental lapses and Toledo will have 10-14 points. You’re telling me you think the Florida offense — improvements and all — can get to at least 35 points?
Houston, we have a failure to launch.
Joe: If Florida drops off defensively this year, I don’t expect Toledo to be the team that exposes D.J. Durkin’s unit. With all due respect to the Rockets, I just don’t see them putting up that many points on Saturday.
The Gators are eager to prove that they are just as tough as last year’s defense and will boldly go where no Gators point spread in a season opener has gone since 2011. Over.
Follow Phil Heilman on Twitter @phillip_heilman. Follow Joe Morgan on Twitter @joe_morgan.
Jeff Driskel throws a pass during warm-ups prior to Florida’s 27-14 win against Bowling Green on Sept. 1 in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
