Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm dropped back to pass and floated the ball off his back foot to the right. It found the hands of tight end Eli Wolf for 22 yards and a first down.
On a day where the Bulldogs dealt Florida several gut punches, that was the final blow.
The completion was on a 3rd and 7 late in the fourth quarter and let Georgia run out the clock for its third-consecutive win in Jacksonville. In a game for the SEC East crown, the Gators were outplayed and outgunned in a familiar fashion.
Florida has enjoyed a rebound on all fronts since hiring Dan Mullen in 2017. The offense is the best it’s been since the graduation of Tim Tebow, the defense has been stellar for the most part and the Gators have gone 21-5 with two New Year’s Six bowl victories in as many years.
But for a program with three national titles, a state packed with football talent and a fanbase that yearns to return to the years when the Gators were perennial national title contenders, simply knocking at the door of national relevancy isn’t enough. With Year 3 of the Mullen era a month and a half away, expectations are high for Florida to take the next step.
I decided to take a look at the five losses the Gators have had since Mullen took over to see what they had in common and what that could mean for the future.
Fair warning, though, that these should probably be taken with a grain of salt. I’m only talking about five games here, so this is your small-sample-size alert.
Limit the number of drives Florida has
This one is straight out of Kirby Smart’s playbook.
Four of UF’s five losses under Mullen have come in games where it had 10 or fewer drives, and it has a record of just 3-4 in those games. Slowing games down has mostly worked for opposing teams, and it’s been especially effective in Jacksonville.
Jimmy’s and Joe’s vs. Xs and Os
The most valid criticism of Mullen’s time in Gainesville is that he hasn’t recruited at an elite level. He deserves plenty of credit for being a great offensive mind and talent developer, but having more success on the recruiting trail would make his job a little easier.
Three of the Gators’ five losses have been to teams who were higher than them on 247Sports’ talent composite rankings, but they are also 5-3 in games against more talented opponents. Florida is also 11-3 against teams in the top 25 of the talent composite rankings under Mullen.
Beating elite teams that recruit better has been a problem during Mullen’s tenure, but the Gators have still done a good job punching above their weight class.
Up-and-down offensive performances
Since Mullen returned to the Swamp, the Gators’ offense has been the best it has been since he roamed the sidelines with Tim Tebow. Florida has scored 34.1 points per game in Mullen’s first two seasons, a mark that hadn’t been matched since 2009, which was Tebow’s final season in Gainesville.
But the story has been different in UF’s losses. The Gators are averaging just 19 points per game in their losses compared to nearly 38 points per game in wins. Below is a table of offensive stats from all 26 games with Mullen at the helm and shaded from red (bad) to good (blue). (Note: The shading is relative to other UF games in this sample. Just because a square is in red doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s that bad, just that it’s bad compared to the other games)
Florida’s offense did a 180 in 2019 compared to the year prior. Its strong running game but lack of confidence in then-quarterback Feleipe Franks for the first three-quarters of 2018 turned into an offense with a dependable starter in Kyle Trask and a woeful running game in 2019.
Franks had a decent game against Kentucky in 2018, but his back-to-back miserable performances against Georgia and Missouri— he had a QBR of 30.6 against the Tigers—sunk the Gators.
Trask had the opposite issue. His start against LSU was arguably his best of the season, but an ineffective rushing attack and a porous defense (which I will get to) resulted in a Florida loss. On the other hand, his worst starts of the season were against Auburn and Missouri, both fairly comfortable wins.
The key for the Gators in big games moving forward will be continuing to emphasize the importance of the quarterback. They proved last season that they can win without a running game, and Mullen has done all of this with two quarterbacks that he inherited.
Collapses in the secondary
Unsurprisingly, most of Florida’s worst defensive performances have come in losses under Mullen. Opponents have scored 33.4 points per game in those five losses, and all five are in the top seven worst defensive performances according to Predicted Points Added (PPA) per play in the Mullen era.
Most notably, the secondary has been especially porous in Florida’s defeats, a black mark for a school that sells itself as “DBU.” Here’s a look at how UF’s defense has performed on passing plays, rushing plays, passing downs (2nd and 7+) and standard downs (anything that’s not a passing down) according to PPA. Remember that positive numbers here are bad and negative numbers are good because we’re looking at the defense.
The common trend is that the Gators haven’t been good enough on passing plays and—by extension—passing downs.
The most dramatic example of this was Florida’s matchup against LSU in Death Valley last season. There’s no shame in getting lit up by a future Heisman Trophy winner in Joe Burrow, but the Gators’ defense was embarrassingly terrible against the Tigers. Burrow completed 21 out of 24 passes for nearly 300 yards (12.2 yards per attempt—meaning that he was essentially picking up a first down any time he threw a pass) and threw three touchdowns for a near-perfect QBR of 98.4.
That was Burrow’s best QBR of the season, but the Gators were also completely outmatched in stopping the run. The Tigers had an unreal .45 PPA per rush against the Gators and racked up over 200 yards on the ground. LSU only faced four third downs the entire game.
Florida’s performance on defense against the Tigers wasn’t just the worst of the Mullen era, but it was also one of the most pathetic showings by any defense last season. Here’s a look at the defenses that gave up the most PPA per play in a single game in 2019.
LSU’s offense had a PPA per play of .74 against Florida, the seventh-highest of any offense in a single game last season. The Gators’ defense hasn’t been anywhere near as bad in any of its other losses—the second-highest PPA per play it has allowed was .35 against Kentucky in 2018—but it has still failed to show up in many of its biggest games.
What now?
As previously acknowledged, it is dangerous to make wide-sweeping generalizations about Mullen and his staff on just five games, but I do think there are a few patterns in the Gators’ losses.
The recruiting deficit is a real problem, but that could be changing. After two commitments from five-star cornerback Jason Marshall and four-star Corey Collier earlier this week, UF’s class has jumped to sixth in the country. Another strong season in 2020 could help boost future classes as well.
The offense, even at its worst, has mostly been good enough to keep Florida in games, even when its defense has collapsed. But the defense has done the same thing in the Gators’ wins a few times, too. UF had solid performances defensively in its wins over LSU in 2018 and Auburn in 2019—two of its biggest wins in the Mullen era—that helped overcome some offensive shortcomings. But getting both units at a consistently good level will help it not just emerge victorious in Jacksonville but also put them in playoff (or whatever the 2020 equivalent will be) contention.
Follow Brendan on Twitter @Bfarrell727 and contact him at bfarrell@alligator.org.
