Jim McElwain had a smugness about him after Saturday’s comeback win against Kentucky. He looked like he was trying to avoid smiling, as if to send a message that winning close games is just what his team does. That there’s nothing special about it. It reminded me of something he said after last season’s goal-line stand, SEC East-clinching win at LSU.
“I just can’t tell you how proud I am of our players, our staff and happy for the Gator fans, you know, that, you know, don’t think we’re very good,” he said following that game on Nov. 19, “but all we do is end up back in Atlanta, right? So that’s pretty cool.”
McElwain clearly felt he proved something to Florida fans with that win, and I think it’s carried over to this season — especially following the loss to Michigan. After that game, he once again felt like he had something to prove. It showed in his post-Kentucky press conference.
“Our guys hung in there and figured out how to win the game,” he said. “Maybe it’s crazy, but I’m a firm believer in you figure out how to win. That’s what it’s all about.”
At a school that measures success on the scale of Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer, that constant need for validation and emphasis on winning clutch games seems reasonable. Because despite claiming consecutive division crowns, an increasingly louder group of Florida fans wants McElwain fired. One fan even started a GoFundMe page to pay for his $20-million buyout that, as of publication, had raised $107 and been shared 20 times.
But when McElwain brags that his team finds a way to win, it’s not talk. It’s backed up with numbers. So maybe that smugness is justified after all.
In his three years at UF, McElwain has won nine of 10 games decided by one possession or less. That 90-percent mark dwarfs any recent Gators coach starting with Spurrier, who took over at Florida in 1990.
Meyer is the best in the category with a 60-percent mark, while Spurrier is close behind at 59 percent.
Granted, McElwain’s sample size is much smaller than Meyer’s and Spurrier’s. But there’s more to it than raw percentages.
In addition to winning 90 percent of one-possession games, 33 percent of McElwain’s total games at UF have been decided by one possession. That’s nearly twice Spurrier’s percentage (19) and beats Meyer’s (25) as well.
In simpler terms, McElwain is playing in a lot of close games and winning almost all of them, while Spurrier and Meyer were more likely to blow teams out. He’s used that fact to claim legitimacy to Florida’s coaching throne when his team hasn’t passed the eye test. And for now, it’s enough to keep players happy and fans (mostly) appeased.
“A win’s a win,” defensive tackle Taven Bryan said following Saturday’s game. “Honestly, we’d like to just dominate so people can go home. But I ain’t complaining. I’ll take it.”
But in statistics, numbers usually regress to the mean. If you measure UF’s next 10 one-possession games, it’s unlikely McElwain will win nine of them again. They’re just too unpredictable.
He’d probably say it’s just the makeup of his team to be clutch, and many of his players agree. But again, it’s about probability. When you play that many close games, you’re bound to lose some of them. Even someone as accomplished as Spurrier barely won more than half of them.
So should McElwain be smug about his team being “clutch” right now? Absolutely. He’s earned it. Will that clutchness continue?
Probably not.
Ethan Bauer is a sports writer. Keep an eye out for his next column by following him on Twitter @ebaueri. You can contact him at ebauer@alligator.org.
UF coach Jim McElwain motions to the Gators defense during Florida's 28-27 win against Kentucky on Saturday at Kroger Field.
