At the time of writing, it has been less than 24 hours since the results of the Iowa caucus were released. Although the results proved interesting, Iowa is far from the final arbiter of the primary process.
In fact, it is really just the beginning.
However, the results may yet help pave the way as to how the rest of the primary season will turn out.
The Iowa caucus has been notorious in recent years for failing to predict the eventual Republican Party nominee. Even so, Ted Cruz’s victory has exposed weaknesses in Trump’s strategy.
I am willing to predict that Cruz will get a lot of media buzz and campaign donations for his win in Iowa, but he will have trouble finding evangelicals, the group of conservatives he polls most strongly with, in the next couple of states. Nevertheless, Ted Cruz showed everybody that Donald Trump is not invincible in the political arena.
If any other candidate had gotten second place they would have been considered a winner in some type of manner, but for Trump, he might as well have finished last. If anything could and should be learned from Iowa, it is that Trump needs a change in strategy.
Simply being a celebrity and going out to speak will not get your supporters to mobilize and vote for you: An actual campaign apparatus will be needed on the ground. This could be a problem for “Super Tuesday” when a campaign that has proved inadequate in getting a single state to mobilize voters has to contend with seven.
Trump has to become organized like the establishment he is trying to fight, or he is doomed to repeat the errors of Iowa. Most importantly, he should probably not talk about polls anymore, seeing as how most of them were wrong. Trump will probably win New Hampshire, but his future beyond that is a bit shaky.
Marco Rubio had one of the best nights of any Republican nominee by far, placing in the expected third but gaining a much larger vote than anybody had anticipated. He nearly matched Trump in percentage of vote and tied with him in delegates.
If you are a moderate Republican who has been looking for relative normalcy within this turbulent election cycle, Rubio may be who you are looking for. In the next couple of weeks everybody should keep an eye out for him on the campaign trail.
On the Democratic Party side it was a close race, with literal coin tosses happening in some precincts in order to decide between Hillary and Bernie.
If anything can be learned from this, it is that the Democratic primary process is going to be a lot longer than anybody had predicted a couple of months ago.
Sanders’ traction in a heavily rural state like Iowa not only shows that his messages are resonating with a lot of people, but the places that would typically go to Clinton may not be that easy to win now. This close clash in Iowa can only help Sanders and may prove dangerous to the Clinton camp, who certainly do not want a drawn out primary season.
Even though New Hampshire is only a week away, there are a couple of key things still up in the air.
The rhetoric is naturally going to change, but there is also another debate for the Republican candidates this weekend, and any gaffe or “moment” could tip New Hampshire to an unexpected winner. But for now, the predictions are set on Sanders and Trump, which seems to be a likely outcome since most voters in New Hampshire are independent.
Time will only tell who the winners will be, but I can now say with a little more confidence the idea of a Trump presidency is becoming a little bit more absurd.
Kevin Foster is a UF political science senior. His column appears on Thursdays.
