As a supporter of the presidential candidate Gov. Jeb Bush, I am frequently asked about the polls that show outsiders out-pacing establishment candidates by ever-increasing numbers. As well as the anti-Washington rhetoric of the election and about the throngs of people who show up to Trump-mania rallies. How can all of this be?
The answer I give to these inquiries is quick and simple: Republican Party primary-goers are kind of like college students.
Picture a typical Friday evening. The air is crisp. The bright lights of downtown establishments entice and lure the young and restless to their doors. You feel after a hard week of studying for organic chemistry and acquiring bad grades, you’ve earned a night of reckless inhibition. To make matters worse, you are still reeling from disappointment after your last romantic affair. Your fling seemed like it would last, but you remain dismayed and disenchanted. The guy, Mitt, was nice and rich, but you didn’t have much in common with him.
But now you’re at Club Caucus. One thing leads to another, and you start drinking. You feel if you indulge yourself, your grades, your social life and everything else in between will get better. And so you drink. Still not soothing the pain over your last fling, you drink some more.
Things start to feel great. You approach people who you would typically never associate with. Like the guy with bad hair at the bar: He’s brash and crude and talks about how "huge" things are. You don’t want to be a loser, as he says, so you spend a good amount of time with him as he rants about the state of the university and how he would run UF better than the administrators who make awful deals. Maybe he can help you with your collegiate career. And in your indulgent state, what he says sounds reasonable and exciting.
But what about the guy near the front of the club? He looks bright, and he’s a medical student — he can definitely help out with your difficult chemistry homework. He seems like a nice guy: smart and slightly aloof. But then again, he makes all sorts of odd claims, like how Century Tower is used to store Gatorade. He also likens people to Nazis. You’re indulging, so you’re taking in what he says and silently nodding your head.
Then comes the inevitable thought of the evening: Oh, God! What am I doing?
You start to sober up. Yes, your grades are not great and your last fling did not turn out so well. But the guys you just met are not going to solve any of those problems. They may sound like they might help, but you’re starting to realize these are some sketchy characters.
The purpose of this parable is to convey that GOP primary-goers, like students, are indulgent.
The last nominee, Mitt Romney, wasn’t Mr. Right, literally. He leaned left on many issues. So, Republicans became swept up with fantasies and became overindulgent. A fantasy candidate — a sort of brash, braggadocious, overly strong leader — will make things better. Rhetoric that would usually read as red flags seem permissible in the GOP’s altered, drunken state.
But then comes the inevitable sobering up. This typically comes with entering a ballot booth. When pressed, Republicans get it together and become pragmatic. At the end of the day, the goal of a GOP primary is to win a national election.
Just like college students, the GOP becomes overindulgent far too often. Remember 2012?
Around this time, we were swept up with Michele Bachmann-mania and Herman Cain-mania and Newt Gingrich-mania and Rick Santorum-mania. Primary-goers were in an altered state, but with some sleep, water and a good shower, they eventually sobered up.
Who became the nominee? Mitt Romney.
All in all, I say let the early primary voters have their fun. They have to wait another four years to become this excited again. I am confident the primary-goers will choose a responsible and great nominee. Rest assured, the GOP nominee won’t be the kind of character you would meet at Midtown.
Michael Beato is a UF political science senior. His column appears on Mondays.
