Just like the Corleones and the Tattaglias.
This was the memorable phrase I recently read in a BBC news report on the current troubles in
Iran. A large portion of these troubles can be traced to the strong and colorful personalities, which are the driving forces in post-revolution Iran.
The current protests and the corresponding police crackdown come as a result of the disputed presidential election, which put hard-liner Mahmoud "The Holocaust Was Fake" Ahmadinejad back in power. The runner-up, the more reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi, has charged voting irregularities, intimidation and election fraud. This assertion has been tentatively supported by such independent think tanks as London's Chatham House. For example, in areas that were showing extreme support for Mousavi, Ahmadinejad was reported to have done far better than expected- to a degree that has been characterized as "highly improbable." And so charges were levied, and the people joined the battle for the soul of Iran.
It isn't really Iran's president that holds ultimate power, so it isn't entirely Ahmadinejad and Mousavi that are driving these events. Speaking in terms of "The Godfather," they are not the Corleones and Tattaglias spoken of - more like the Pentangeli and the Rosato brothers. Instead, it is former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who are the powerful men butting heads behind the scenes. The reasoning is not hard to fathom. Ahmadinejad is a supporter of the status quo and supports power concentration in the hands of the supreme leader - and so Khamenei backed him. Mousavi is a reformist and seeks to move certain powers, specifically control of Iran's nuclear capacity and police forces, away from the supreme leader and into the hands of the President - and so reformist Rafsanjani backed him. These are the two most powerful men in Iran and both are, like Keyser Soze, the kinds of men who can wrangle the wills of men.
Shortly after the protests began, Khamenei issued a public proclamation that any further protests would be met with police action, and the leaders would be held responsible. There was a Mousavi-supported protest scheduled for the following day, and the media were abuzz with questions over whether it would proceed.
In the end, it did, with Mousavi going so far as to say that he is "ready for martyrdom." Don't mistake the language - he urged his supporters to practice nonviolence. In the ensuing chaos, there were several arrests by the Khamenei-loyal police force. Among these arrests were several family members of Rafsanjani, including his daughter. They were released shortly thereafter, but there is no doubt the arrest was meant to send a message. Undeterred, the Rafsanjani-Mousavi opposition is not backing down.
And so we will wait, and watch and see where things go from here. Personally, I'm hoping for Ahmadinejad's defeat only because it diminishes his chances of ever becoming supreme leader, and the thought of a supreme leader who denies the Holocaust and has access to nuclear power is just too vulgar for my tastes.
As Obama issues messages telling Iran that the West is watching, I doubt that many people there care. The Iranians on both sides of this issue are fighting for what they perceive to be the right thing for their country, and it's arrogant for any other nation to assume that its opinion matters. Beginning Monday, the Iranian legislature started recounting a random 10 percent of ballots to check for irregularities.
Let's hope that all goes well, before Iran's young democracy sleeps with the fishes.
Eric Chianese is an English senior. His column appears weekly.
