The past year in cinema is seen by many as one of the tightest races in Oscar history, and with the variety of powerful performances up for Hollywood’s biggest honors, this movie-goer agrees in full. Lupita, Matthew, Chiwetel, Alfonso — so many names, so little trophies to distribute. To close out the 2014 award season (and subsequent Trophy Hunting coverage this semester), I’m tackling six of the biggest categories in Tinseltown’s most coveted ceremony and casting my votes for the year’s biggest frontrunners. Note: I am not all-seeing. I may not get this right. If I do, then I will celebrate accordingly. If I don’t, I will probably still celebrate accordingly. It is the Oscars, after all…
Best Picture
- Frontrunner: “American Hustle”
- Underdog: “12 Years A Slave”
These two films have been neck-and-neck all awards season. Each film has strong casts with equally strong directors, as well as enough critic and audience praise. Honestly, it could go either way, but the slight edge goes to “American Hustle” winning the Golden Globe over “12 Years A Slave.”
Best Actor in a Leading Role
- Frontrunner: Matthew McConaughey in “Dallas Buyers Club”
- Underdog: Chiwetel Ejiofor in “12 Years A Slave”
I can attest that both of these actors deserve all the accolades they can get. Both have grit and gusto in their roles: one as a medication hustler diagnosed with AIDS and another as a former free man kidnapped and forced back into slavery. Yet, in another close race, I think McConaughey’s almost sweep of awards season thus far will not fail him on Oscar night.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
- Frontrunner: Cate Blanchett in “Blue Jasmine”
- Underdog: Sandra Bullock in “Gravity”
Although this category isn’t as close as the others, there are still five powerhouse leading ladies up for the statue. Blanchett has won nearly all of the awards in this category all season long, and I don’t think that Oscar night will be an exception to the trend. Bullock gave a wonderful performance in her space-thriller, but it may not have enough gravitational force to pull it away from Blanchett.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
- Frontrunner: Jared Leto in “Dallas Buyers Club”
- Underdog: Barkhad Abdi in “Captain Phillips”
Out of all of the categories, this is the only one that, to me, has a clear winner. Jared Leto has become a sort of darling of this awards season with both critic and audience appraisal of his performance as the complex but endlessly lively Rayon. Everything about Leto’s portrayal has the quintessential makings of a star performance — the overall transformation (including major weight loss and lots of feminine ensemble pieces), the chemistry with McConaughey — everything. Don’t get me wrong, Abdi’s Somali captor in “Phillips” is a huge breakout role, but Leto’s certainly in for the win.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
- Frontrunner: Jennifer Lawrence in “American Hustle”
- Underdog: Lupita Nyong’o in “12 Years A Slave”
Now before I get blasted for this line-up, let me preface this by saying that I think this is the closest race of the night. Lawrence, to me, is the only true standout performance in “American Hustle” that would have a chance of winning an award in such tough categories — and she beat out Nyong’o at the Golden Globes earlier this year. But the beautiful Lupita has won every other award — and everyone seems to be rallying for her. This will definitely be one of the moments that will keep viewers (and everyone in that room) on the edge of their seats.
Best Directing
- Frontrunner: “Gravity” - Alfonso Cuaron
- Underdog: “12 Years A Slave” - Steve McQueen
Cuaron has been receiving major attention for his sci-fi thriller, while McQueen has garnered praise for his raw look into Southern slavery. Both made breathtaking films (which I am not exaggerating — both films had moments that literally suspended my breathing for a second), but I think the cinematography and overall direction of “Gravity” will give the edge (and the Oscar) to Cuaron.
Best Original Song
- Frontrunner: “Let it Go” - “Frozen”
- Underdog: “Ordinary Love” - U2
This one is a little tougher. Between “Frozen”’s anthemic ballad “Let It Go” and Pharrell William’s bouncy, buoyant “Happy” from “Despicable Me 2,” it could go either way. Throw in a little competition from, oh, I don’t know, U2, and this one could be a serious toss-up. Hopefully the performances of each of the songs (as well as “The Moon Song” from “Her”) will foreshadow a winner.
Best Original Screenplay
This is an easy one. If Spike Jonze doesn’t win for the funny, tender “Her,” then all hope is lost. That may sound a little melodramatic, but in a year where this film didn’t get nearly enough nominations for what it deserved in terms of performances (hello, Joaquin Phoenix, I still love you), this one should be a given.
Catch the Oscars on Sunday at 7 p.m. on ABC. And fear not — “Trophy Hunting” will be back next season with all the scoop on awards season. Send your thoughts in Twitter form @AlligatorAvenue.
[A version of this story ran on page 10 on 2/27/2014 under the headline "Trophy Hunting: super-sized Academy Awards predictions"]
