TYLER: Which team has a better chance to reach the BCS National Championship Game, No. 1 Alabama or No. 3 Boise State?
KYLE: I‘m not going to argue that Boise State is the better team, but I think the Broncos have a better chance of reaching the national championship game than the Tide. Boise State usually starts much further down in the polls and has to work its way up as the season progresses, but this year the Broncos are starting high enough to end up in one of the top two spots in the final BCS poll. Boise State plays No. 10 Virginia Tech and No. 24 Oregon State (who I think will win the Pac-10) in the first three weeks, which should give them enough cred if they run the table like last season. The WAC is probably worse than it was a season ago, so I don’t see the Broncos losing to anyone in their conference.
TYLER: No team outside the power conferences has had a better chance to reach the national championship than Boise State will this season. That said, the Broncos still face issues similar to the ones they did when finishing the year unbeaten in 2006 and 2009. Sure, starting the season ranked in the top five gives them an edge. But will preseason hype help you if your strength of schedule is weak? With only two opponents in the preseason top 25, Boise State better hope Oregon State has a good season, and are we confident in the Beavers?
The Broncos can go undefeated this year. But if two teams from bigger conferences accomplish the same feat, Boise State will be left out in the cold once again. Alabama’s road is obviously much more difficult. But, in a round-about-way, that tough road actually gives them an edge compared to the Broncos.
KYLE: The chances of two power-conference teams going undefeated isn’t very high. Since Aught-5, when an undefeated Texas and USC met in the title game, only three teams have entered the ‘ship undefeated. And LSU even made the title game with two loses in 2007. Boise has enough juice this year to get the nod over a two-loss team, if they go undefeated. And may even have the juice to get the nod over a one-loss team from the Big East, ACC or Big Ten. And of course I’m confident in the Beavers, they’re DAMN good -- see what I did there?
TYLER: I did see. And I’m not going to make a joke about turning the Tide on this argument.
Alabama obviously faces a steep challenge this season. The team lost eight starters on defense, plays in the toughest division in the nation and has a target on its back all season. But the offense returns eight starters, including Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram. And he might be only the team’s third best offensive weapon. Freak of nature Julio Jones could dominate any defensive backfield if healthy, and backup running back Trent Richardson should see an expanded role after torching Texas in the national championship game last season.
Of course, this isn’t a debate about talent, because Alabama would blow Boise State out athletically. But, because of that level of talent, the Crimson Tide is used to high expectations. Alabama was viewed as a national championship contender from the outset of 2009, beginning the year ranked fifth. Even though Boise State started at No. 14 in that same preseason poll, the Broncos were not in the title conversation until the end of the year.
KYLE: Boise St. is just as loaded on offense as Alabama, as they return every starter on that side of ball, including Heisman hopeful Kellen Moore at quarterback, top receivers Titus Young and Austin Pettis, and backfield speedster Jeremy Avery. In fact, I’m willing to bet Boise State has the highest scoring offense in the nation this season. ‘Bama needed their defense to bail them out of some tough jams last year (see:Tennessee) when quarterback Greg McElroy struggled and the running game wasn’t on point. Rolando McClain and Terrence Cody aren’t walking through those doors, Tyler. (Hopefully, Cody isn’t running through those doors either. Mount Cody’s got more jiggle than Jell-O.) On defense, they return all but one starter (first-round NFL Draft pick Kyle Wilson), so they should be able to hold opponents under the 45 points per game their offense will be putting up. Neither of the Broncos’ early season tests come on the road. They take on VT at a neutral site. And as good as those Beavers are, you don’t just walk into Boise and leave the smurf turf with a win. In the end, there’s room for both of them. And I wouldn’t be shocked to see a Boise State-Alabama matchup.
