During the past two seasons, the Gators have not played well in the “clutch.” Fortunately for them, “clutch” probably isn’t real.
Since the start of the 2011-12 season, Florida has run 11 offensive possessions while trailing by three or fewer points with less than 3 minutes to play. The Gators have scored just seven points, or .636 points per possession, in those scenarios.
That number is terrible, but having a bad 11 possessions is like having a bad 7 minutes. It happens, and it doesn’t mean anything about Florida’s ability to perform in crunch time.
Even the points per possession number is suspect. If the Gators make one more shot, they’re an average “clutch” team. If they make two more, people are writing about how they’re one of the most clutch teams in the country.
When UF trailed Missouri by a point with 7 seconds left in Wednesday’s game, Kenny Boynton was wrong to pull up for a three. Was the shot as bad as everyone is making it out to be? No, not at all. His hesitation dribble left his defender off balance, giving Boynton a clean look. A shot with 7 seconds left gives UF time to grab an offensive board, or an opportunity to foul and extend the game after a miss.
When Missouri made a free throw to stretch its lead to three with 3.1 seconds remaining, Boynton made a great pass to get Mike Rosario an open look for the tie. But I guess there’s no such thing as a “clutch” pass.
In his four years at Florida, Boynton has been involved in a lot of “clutch” situations. He’s had 23 touches while the Gators were trailing by three or fewer points with 3 or fewer minutes to play. He’s hit 2 of 12 shots, scored nine points and grabbed an offensive rebound. He has zero turnovers in those situations. Are those great stats? No, not at all. But they amount to the equivalent of a bad game. Not something anyone should make sweeping judgments about.
While the sample size is too small to be critical of the results, it’s almost never too small to be critical of the process.
This year, UF has had six offensive possessions in which it needed a “clutch” play, and it has scored just three points. During those possessions, Scottie Wilbekin has taken three shots, Boynton has taken two and Mike Rosario has taken one. Fifteen of UF’s 16 touches in those situations have been by that trio. Erik Murphy touched the ball once — just long enough to give it up again. Patric Young has done nothing but screen.
Last year, the Gators had only five possessions in which they needed a “clutch” play. They scored four points, both putbacks by Young. In all, UF grabbed four offensive boards on those possessions — food for thought for those who believe Boynton let go of that three too quickly.
Guards dominated in 2011-12, taking 6 of UF’s 9 “clutch” shot attempts and getting 14 of its 21 touches in “clutch” time.
Maybe if they passed, Florida would be more “clutch.”
During the 2009-11 seasons, UF was a little better in the “clutch,” scoring 33 points in 30 possessions for a 1.1 points per possession average. As you can see in the appendix on alligatorSports.org, the Gators passed the ball considerably more than they have in recent late game situations today. Of course, the result was mostly the same, with Boynton and Walker playing hero ball and taking 21 of the 30 shots. But in those instances it worked, which will sometimes happen when you’re dealing with a 30-shot sample. There’s a lot of variation — way too much to put a classification on how “clutch” a player or team is.
The UF teams that won back-to-back titles in 2005-07 scored one point per “clutch” possession, with totals of 34 points on 34 possessions that are similar to, but just a step below, the 2009-11 squads.
So, the UF teams that won it all in consecutive seasons were actually less “clutch” than the 2009-11 group, which was twice bounced from the NCAA Tournament after coming up short in close games. Either that, or maybe “clutch” isn’t real.
Contact Greg Luca at gluca@alligator.org.
Appendix
Is Florida clutch? Here’s how the Gators have performed during the past four seasons and the 05-07 title runs on offensive possessions facing a deficit of three or fewer points in the final 3 minutes of games.
Florida Points Per “Clutch” Possession by Season
2012-13: 6 possessions, 3 points, .5 points per possession
2011-12: 5 possessions, 4 points, .8 points per possession
2011-13: 11 possessions, 7 points, .636 points per possession
2010-11: 16 possessions, 20 points, 1.25 points per possession
2009-10: 14 possessions, 13 points, .929 points per possession
2009-11: 33 points, 30 possessions, 1.1 points per possession
2006-07: 10 possessions, 11 points, 1.1 points per possession
2005-06: 24 possessions, 23 points, .958 points per possessions
2005-07: 34 possessions, 34 points, 1 point per possession
2012-13
6 possessions, 3 points, .5 points per possession.
Touches: Scottie Wilbekin 8, Mike Rosario 4, Kenny Boynton 3, Erik Murphy 1
Shots: Wilbekin 3, Boynton 2, Rosario 1.
Offensive rebounds: 0
On the road against Missouri, 02/19/13, 53-60 loss.
Down 2, 2:47 left: Wilbekin brings the ball up, uses a screen from Patric Young and misses a quick, somewhat open, off-balance mid-range jumper with 2:40 left.
Down 2, 1:57 left out of timeout: Wilbekin gets a screen from Young, passes to Murphy, gets the ball back, uses a screen from Murphy and makes a wild, spinning step-back three with 7 seconds on the shot clock.
Down 1, 1:15 left: Wilbekin brings the ball up and passes to the wing to Rosario, who passes back to Wilbekin in the corner. Wilbekin uses an on-ball screen from Young and passes to Rosario out top. Rosario passes to Kenny on the wing, where he misses a pretty good look at a three in between defenders with 50 seconds left.
Down 1, :19.1 left: Wilbekin dribbles up the floor, uses a ball screen to get to the wing, dribbles back to the top, passes to Boynton and then slides out to the wing. Wilbekin could have attempted to drive his man, and coach Billy Donovan said he got rid of the ball too early. Boynton gives Jabari Brown a little bit of a shake and had him off balance but missed the shot. Shooting early gave UF a chance to get a rebound or foul and extend the game. As the play was developing, Rosario ran to the corner. Murphy ran down the floor, got to the low block and then cut to the opposite corner. Young set the screen and then ran to the short corner. Young never really looked like he wanted the ball or was interested in posting up. Boynton ran almost to the corner, slid out to the wing, caught the pass and then took the shot. Donovan said Boynton should have tried to drive to his right, either to get to the rim or to force Murphy’s defender to help, which would have created an opening for a pass to Murphy on the perimeter.
Down 3, :03 left: Boynton makes a great pass from the backcourt to get Rosario an open look from the corner. Great play by Boynton to know how much time was left and not panic. Rosario shoots an airball at the buzzer.
On the road against Arizona, 12/15/12, 65-64 loss.
Down 1, :07 left: Wilbekin inbounds to Boynton, who passes to Rosario just across half court. Rosario is shut off going to his right, falls and loses control of the ball. It bounces to Wilbekin, who misses a desperation three at the buzzer.
2011-12
5 possessions, 4 points, .8 points per possession
Touches: Erving Walker 7, Young 6, Brad Beal 3, Wilbekin 2, Boynton 2, Will Yeguete 1,
Shots: Walker 3, Young 3, Beal 2, Boynton 1
Offensive rebounds: 4 (4 second-chance points)
In the NCAA Tournament against Louisville, 03/24/12, 72-68 loss.
Down 1, 1:02 left: Ball inbounded to Young against pressure. He passes to Walker, who hands off to Beal. Beal drives around Young’s screen, crosses over, and takes it to the bucket for a left-handed layup that gets blocked by Louisville center Gorgui Dieng. Young scrambles for the offensive rebound and gets it to Walker for the uncontested midrange jumper, but the shot hits the back iron.
Down 1, :19 left: Beal gets a steal and is immediately called for a travel. This was one of a few possessions removed from the numbers because time or another circumstance kept it from accurately representing how UF’s offense would have operated in that situation.
Down 3, :16.7 left: Ball inbounded to Walker. He hands off to Beal, who uses a screen from Young to get an open look at a game-tying three with 11.7 seconds left. On the other side, Boynton is working off a Murphy screen. Lots of player movement. Beal rebounds his own miss, kicks it to Boynton for an open three with 7 seconds left. He misses.
On the road against Rutgers, 12/29/11, 85-83 loss in 2 OT
Down 1, 1:27 left in OT: Wilbekin brings the ball up and passes to Boynton on the wing. Boynton passes to Beal out top, and Beal passes to Wilbekin on the wing. After Beal sets a screen off the ball, Wilbekin passes to Young on the block. Young backs down, misses a lefty hook, gets his own rebounds and finishes with his left hand.
Down 2, 8.7 seconds left in double OT: Walker brings the ball up and tries to pass to Boynton, but the ball is deflected out of bounds. Down 2 with 4.3 seconds left, Walker receives the inbound, gets a screen from Young, weaves through traffic and misses an off-balance midrange jumper.
At home against Arizona, 12/7/11, 78-72 win in OT
Down 1, 36.2 seconds left: Walker brings the ball up and passes to Young. Young passes to Yeguete, who passes to Boynton before setting a screen away from the ball to get Walker open on top. Walker receives the pass from Boynton, steps into a contested three and misses. Young gets the offensive rebound and sticks it back. Before Walker ran off the screen from Yeguete, he set an off-ball screen in the lane for Young, but his man hedged to take away the post entry pass.
2010-11
16 possessions, 20 points, 1.25 points per possession
2009-11 shots: Boynton 9 (3 FTAs), Walker 12 (2 FTAs), Alex Tyus 1 (2 FTAs), Chandler Parsons 4, Vernon Macklin 3 (2 FTAs), Dan Werner 1
In the NCAA Tournament against Butler, 03/26/11, 74-71 loss in OT
Down 3, 2:43 left: Walker brings the ball up and passes to Boynton, who got open using baseline screens from Tyus and Parsons. Boynton uses an on-ball screen from Young and then passes to Walker. Walker uses a screen from Tyus, gets double-teamed, drives in the lane and kicks to Boynton for a wide-open, game-tying three with 2:22 left.
Down 2, 1:53 left: Walker walks it up, uses screens from Tyus and Young, gets to the wing and knocks down an open look. He was 0-for-8 from the field before hitting that three with 1:41 left.
Down 2, 1:21 left: Walker brings it up, uses a ball screen from Tyus and is fouled on the dribble. He hits one of two free throws with 1:07 remaining.
Down 1, 29.2 left out of a timeout: Walker walks it up, uses a double screen from Tyus and Young and hands off to Boynton. Boynton immediately misses an open but deep look at a three with 19 seconds left. After a four-man scramble for the rebound, Butler gets the ball on the alternating possession with 13.9 remaining.
Down 3, 10.6 seconds left: Walker takes the inbound, brings the ball up the floor, barely uses a screen from Tyus and misses a pull-up three from 5 feet beyond the arc with 8 seconds left.
At home against Tennessee, 02/12/11, 61-60 win
Down 1, 46.8 seconds left out of a timeout: Wilbekin gets the inbound and hands to Walker, who walks the ball up the floor. Walker uses a screen from Young and passes to Tyus on the perimeter. Tyus passes to Wilbekin, who uses a screen from Tyus to turn the corner. Wilbekin passes to Young in the paint, but the pass bounces off of the center and into the arms of a cutting Tyus, who goes up for a dunk and is fouled. He misses both free throws with 31 seconds left.
Down 1, 25.5 seconds left: Tyus rebounds a missed free throw and hands to Walker. Walker rejects a Murphy screen, drives and hits the layup with 14 seconds left.
At home against Vanderbilt, 02/01/11, 65-61 OT win
Down 1, 2:20 left out of a timeout: Tyus passes in to Walker. Walker passes to Boynton on the wing. Boynton passes out top to Parsons, who sends it back to Boynton on the wing. Boynton uses a screen from Parsons to get out top. He passes to Walker, who passes it back to Boynton out top. Parsons runs to the free-throw line and receives a pass from Boynton. Parsons faces up and dribbles out to the wing, then passes back out top to Boynton. Boynton passes to Walker on the wing. Walker drives the lane and kicks to Parsons, who pump fakes, steps in and knocks down a wide open mid-range jumper with 1:55 to go.
Down 1, 1:40 left: Walker takes it up and passes to Tyus on the wing. Tyus passes to Boynton in the corner. Boynton dribbles out to the wing and passes out top to Walker, who almost immediately sends it back to Boynton on the wing. Boynton sends it to Parsons out top. Parsons uses a screen from Tyus and passes to Boynton on the wing. Boynton sends it back out top to Parsons, and he fires it to Walker on the wing. Walker drives into the paint and kicks to Boynton, who knocks down a three from the corner with 1:04 left.
At home against Jacksonville, 12/20/10, 71-68 OT loss
Down 1, 1:27 left: Walker takes the inbound and passes to Parsons in the backcourt to beat JU’s pressure. Parsons sends it back to Walker in the backcourt. Walker dribbles across the time line, immediately drives into the paint, jumps and misses a wild layup. Macklin tips it back in.
Down 1, :54.8 left: Walker takes the inbound pass, beats JU’s pressure and holds the ball out top. Walker passes to Tyus on the wing as Boynton runs off a Parsons screen on the baseline. Walker uses an off-ball screen from Macklin, and Tyus passes to Macklin as he flares out after the screen. Parsons flashes to the wing and gets the pass from Macklin. Walker uses an off-ball screen from Macklin to get wide open out top. Parsons feeds him in rhythm, but Walker misses the open three.
Down 3, :31.8 left: Walker and Parsons exchange passes to beat pressure in the backcourt before Walker splits a double team crossing the time line. His move gives UF a 4-on-3. The three JU defenders drop back to protect the paint against Macklin, Tyus and a driving Walker, so Walker kicks to Boynton for an open three from the corner. He misses, but Parsons gets the offensive rebound and puts it back with 19.6 seconds to play.
Down 3, :17.1 left: Inbound goes to Walker, who uses a screen from Macklin and probes the perimeter until 10, when he hands off to Parsons. Parsons passes to Boynton on the wing with 8. Boynton’s drive left is shut off by bad spacing — he’s too close to Parsons and his defender. Boynton hands off to Walker with 6.8. Walker takes it out to the wing and is shut off, so he takes it back out top. He stops abruptly 3 feet beyond the arc and makes a shot fake that gets his man down. Still, Walker doesn’t have a chance to regain his balance before putting up a three that misses at the buzzer.
In Orlando against UCF, 12/1/10, 57-54 loss*
Down 3, 1:24 left: Parsons holds out top. Tyus screens off the ball for Macklin and then flares out top to take the pass from Parsons. With Macklin being fronted in the post, Tyus throws him a lob and Macklin converts the layup.
Down 1, :44 left: Walker passes to Boynton, who misses an elbow jumper with 35 seconds to go.
Down 3, :24 left: Walker brings the ball up and passes to Parsons. As Parsons holds out top, Walker uses an off-ball screen from Macklin to get open for a deep three with 17 seconds left. Walker misses, Macklin taps out the rebound, and Boynton misses a good look at a three with 13.3 seconds to go.
Down 3, 3.4 left: Macklin rebounds UCF’s missed free throw but makes an errant pass with 1.2 seconds left. This was one of a few possessions removed from the numbers because time or another circumstance kept it from accurately representing how UF’s offense would have operated in that situation.
*Play-by-play descriptions from archived game stories and YouTube clips.
2009-10
14 possessions, 13 points, .929 points per possession
2009-11 shots: Boynton 9 (3 FTAs), Walker 12 (2 FTAs), Tyus 1 (2 FTAs), Parsons 4, Macklin 3 (2 FTAs), Werner 1
At home against Vanderbilt, 03/02/10, 64-60 loss
Down 1, 3:08 left: Walker dribbles the ball up the floor and uses a screen from Macklin. Werner gets free on top, receives the pass, drives the lane and misses the layup. Macklin grabs the offensive rebound, gets fouled and hits one of two free throws.
Down 2, 2:24 left: Walker brings the ball up, attacks off the dribble, pulls it out and waits. Parsons receives the pass on the right wing after a double off-ball screen. Boynton uses an off-ball screen to get free in the right corner, and Parsons feeds him the pass. Boynton drives to the basket and attempts a layup that hangs on the rim and rolls off.
Down 2, 1:04 left: Parsons brings the ball up and passes to Walker on the wing. Parsons uses a screen off the ball from Macklin to cut down the lane. Walker and Macklin run a screen and roll. Walker drives, pulls up from the elbow and misses a contested jumper with 54 seconds left left.
Down 2, :24 left: Walker pokes the ball away from Vanderbilt’s Jermaine Beal for a steal that ends up in Parsons’ hands in the backcourt. Parsons jogs the ball up and hands to Walker on the left wing before UF calls timeout. With 17.3 seconds left, Parsons inbounds to Walker in the backcourt. He dribbles up and hands to Parsons on the wing. Parsons drives the left lane and kicks to Boynton, who slid from the right corner to the right wing to get a wide open look at a three. His shot goes off the rim and out.
On the road against Georgia, 02/27/10, 78-76 loss*
Down 2, 1:19 left: Walker misses a three with 37.7 seconds left.
Down 2, :13 left: From the alligatorSports archives: “With Florida down by two, Werner passed up an open 16-footer and attempted to get the ball to a wide-open Vernon Macklin by the basket, but Georgia forward Albert Jackson deflected it out of bounds with 0.1 seconds to go.”
“The play was designed for junior forward Chandler Parsons to come off two screens and get the ball on the wing. But the Bulldogs stuck to Parsons, and two Georgia defenders pressured him to make the pass to Werner.”
*Play-by-play descriptions from box score data and archived game stories.
On the road against Alabama, 02/04/10, 66-65 win*
Down 1, :37 left out of timeout: Walker misses a jumper with 21 seconds left. Boynton gets the offensive rebound, and UF takes a timeout. With 17.4 seconds left, the inbound goes to Walker in the backcourt. Without any passes or screens, he drives down the lane and rattles in a floater with 11 seconds to go.
*YouTube clips show only the final play.
On the road against Tennessee, 1/31/10, 61-60 loss*
Down 2, :42 left: Parsons hits a three from the top of the key.
Down 1, :17 left: From the alligatorSports archives: “Sophomore point guard Erving Walker passed out of a double team to Tyus, who spun to his right and put up a shot in traffic that fell off the iron.” Tyus set a screen for Walker, and Tennessee doubled Walker off the screen.
*Play-by-play descriptions from box score data and archived game stories.
At home against South Carolina, 1/23/10, 58-56 win
Down 2, :22 left: Inbound goes to Walker, and he jogs it up the floor. Boynton uses off-ball screens from Tyus and Werner, receives the pass on the wing, tries a catch-and-shoot three and is fouled. He makes all three.
Down 1, :05 left: Everyone reading this far is already familiar with this play. After Devan Downey gives South Carolina the lead with a miraculous shot, Werner inbounds to Walker. Walker brings the ball up the right side of the floor and runs across the top of the key. When he reaches the left elbow he throws a short pass to Parsons on the wing, and Parsons drills the three as the buzzer sounds.
On the road against N.C. State, 1/03/10, 62-61 OT win*
Down 3, :11 left: Walker is intentionally fouled and hits two free throws with 7 seconds to go.
Down 3, :07 left: Walker is intentionally fouled and hits two free throws with 3 seconds to go.
Down 2, :2.6 left: Parsons gets the rebound off the missed free throw and nails a heave from the opposite three-point arc to win at the buzzer.
*None of these plays were counted in the stats. Florida didn’t really have a legitimate offensive possession.
In Sunrise against Richmond, 12/19/09, 56-53 loss*
Down 3, 1:34 left: Boynton misses a quick three with 1:18 left.
Down 3, :36 left out of a timeout: Walker is fouled with 25 seconds left and hits one of two free throws.
Down 2, :23 left: Walker brings the ball up, uses a screen from Macklin to put his man on the floor and misses an open three with 12 seconds left. Macklin misses the tip in, gets another rebound and airballs an awkward attempt at a hook shot. Dan Werner grabs the loose ball but is stripped.
*Play-by-play descriptions based on box score data, archived game stories and highlights on Richmond’s website.
2006-07*
10 possessions, 11 points, 1.1 points per possession
*Based on box score and play-by-play data.
In Sunrise against UAB, 12/30/06, 75-70 win
Down 3, 3:06 left: Brewer misses a three. Green gets the offensive rebound. Brewer makes a layup.
Down 3, 2:34 left: Brewer hits two free throws.
On the road against Florida State, 12/03/06, 70-66 loss
Down 2, :21 left: Green misses a three.
In Las Vegas against Kansas, 11/25/06, 82-80 loss in OT
Down 2, 1:25 left: Green misses a three.
Down 2, 1:05 left: Noah makes a dunk.
Down 2, :33 left: UF turnover.
Down 4, :10 left: Brewer drives the baseline, hits the layup and is fouled with 10 seconds left. He misses the free throw, grabs his own board and kicks it from the free-throw line to the left wing for Green. Green misses the jumper, but Noah taps it in. I wouldn’t normally count this possession because it began with UF down 4, but it was included because the four-point possession tied the game.
Down 1, 2:54 left in OT: Humphrey makes a three.
Down 1, :26 left in OT: Brewer missed a jumper.
Down 2, :05 left in OT: Brewer misses a three.
2005-06*
24 possessions, 23 points, .958 points per possessions
*Based on box score and play-by-play data.
In the NCAA Tournament against Georgetown, 03/24/06, 57-53 win
Down 2, 2:37 left: Lee Humphrey makes a three.
Down 1, 1:42 left: Al Horford misses.
Down 1, 1:01 left: Joakim Noah misses. Corey Brewer grabs an offensive rebound. Brewer makes a jumper, is fouled and makes a free throw.
At home against Tennessee, 02/22/06, 76-72 loss
Down 3, 2:53 left: Brewer makes jumper and is fouled but misses the and-one free throw.
Down 1, 2:34 left: Humphrey misses.
Down 1, 2:14 left: Taurean Green misses.
Down 3, 2:02 left: Green misses.
Down 3, 1:41 left: Brewer makes a three.
Down 3, 1:41 left: Brewer misses a three, Horford grabs the rebound, Humphrey makes a three.
Down 2, :16 left: Brewer misses a three.
On the road against Arkansas, 02/18/06, 85-81 loss in OT
Down 1, 2:17 left: Green misses jumper, Noah gets rebound, Green misses jumper, Brewer gets rebound, Brewer makes layup.
Down 1, 1:41 left: Chris Richard misses layup.
Down 3, :19 left: UF turnover.
At home against South Carolina, 2/08/06, 71-67 loss
Down 2, 3:03 left: Green misses a three.
Down 2, 2:15 left: Horford makes a layup.
Down 2, 1:41 left: UF turnover.
Down 3, :18 left: Green misses a three.
On the road against Tennessee, 1/21/06, 80-76 loss
Down 3, 3:14 left: Green misses a three, gets it back, draws a foul and makes two free throws.
Down 3, 2:43 left: Green makes a layup.
Down 3, 2:08 left: Green misses a three.
Down 3, 1:51 left: Noah makes a layup.
Down 2, 1:30 left: Humphrey misses a three.
Down 2, :56 left: Brewer is fouled and makes two free throws.
Down 2, :25 left: Humphrey misses a jumper with 13 seconds left
Kenny Boynton in the clutch
(Less than three minutes, UF trailing by no more than 3)
‘12-13: 3 touches, 0-for-2
‘11-12 1 touch, 0-for-1
‘10-11: 16 touches, 2-for-6, six points
‘09-10: 3 touches, 0-for-3, 3-for-3 FTs, 3 points, 1 offensive rebound
Total: 23 touches, 2-for-12, 9 points, 1 offensive rebound, 0 turnovers
Senior guard Kenny Boynton walks back to play defense after scoring during Florida’s 69-52 victory against Kentucky on Feb. 12 in the O’Connell Center.
