Since Butch Jones took over as coach of the Tennessee football team in 2013, the Volunteers have constantly been dubbed the spring Southeastern Conference East Division champions.
The Vols are always the sexy pick to make the title game, and when the voting of media members at SEC Media Days is released later this week, it’s likely that Tennessee will be the favorite to win the division.
Since I wasn't there to vote, here are my SEC East predictions:
1. Tennessee
Last season’s record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key players: QB Joshua Dobbs, HB Jalen Hurd, DE Derek Barnett
Analysis: I know, they’re always the preseason champs. I can hear people scoffing and muttering under their breath even while I’m writing this.
But it really is now or never for Tennessee.
Josh Dobbs, the Vols’ star quarterback, is a senior. Jalen Hurd, the 6-foot-4, 240-pound bruiser of a running back could also depart for the NFL, as could defensive playmaker Derek Barnett.
For now though, all three remain intact along with above-average players at other positions. All the pieces are there for the Vols, and this year, they’ll (finally) put them together. (Also, if Tennessee collapses, I swear I'll never pick them again.)
Prediction: 10-2, 6-2 SEC
2. Florida
Last season’s record: 10-4, 7-1 SEC
Key players: QB Luke Del Rio, WR Antonio Callaway, K Eddy Pineiro
Analysis: Last season’s SEC East champions should be better than a year ago, and they’ll certainly be in the mix to go to Atlanta. Luke Del Rio, Florida’s de facto starting quarterback, looked like a sure-fire upgrade over Treon Harris in the Spring game. The losses of receiver Demarcus Robinson and running back Kelvin Taylor will hurt, but the Gators have a stable of seemingly capable backs at their disposal to go along with four freshmen receivers.
The defense lost some big playmakers in cornerback Vernon Hargreaves, defensive lineman Jonathan Bullard and linebacker Antonio Morrison, but it also has plenty of veterans coming back.
And the biggest upgrade of all, of course, will be at kicker, where Eddy Pineiro looks the part of a future Lou Groza award winner. In short, they’ll be better. But I don’t know if they’ll be good enough to beat Tennessee.
Prediction: 9-3, 6-2 SEC
3. Georgia
Last season’s record: 10-3, 5-3 SEC
Key players: HB Nick Chubb, HB Sony Michel, LB Lorenzo Carter
Analysis: The key for Georgia is the health of its running backs. Nick Chubb is coming back from a gruesome knee injury that tore three ligaments while stablemate Sony Michel recently broke his arm. If those two can stay on the field, Georgia can compete with anyone in the East.
A lot will also depend on the play of UGA’s quarterback, which could be Greyson Lambert, Brice Ramsey or Jacob Eason. Still, Georgia is likely the last team with a real shot at winning the East, even with a new head coach in Kirby Smart.
Prediction: 7-5, 5-3 SEC
4. Kentucky
Last season’s record: 5-7, 2-6 SEC
Key players: QB Drew Barker, HB Boom Williams, LB Courtney Love
Analysis: Some might think I have Kentucky too high on this list, because in much the same way as Tennessee always lives in the shadow of unfulfilled expectations, so too does Kentucky. But I really like what the Wildcats’ offense can bring this year.
Quarterback Drew Barker was one of the most highly touted recruits to go to Kentucky in recent memory, and with Patrick Towles’ transfer, he’s the favorite to start. UK also has a few capable backs in Boom Williams and Jojo Kemp, who combined for 12 rushing touchdowns last season.
And on defense, another highly touted recruit — 6-foot-7, 360-pound defensive tackle Matt Elam — should be ready for a significant role if he can stay on the field. Like with Tennessee, the pieces seem to be there. It’s just a matter of execution.
Prediction: 7-5, 4-4 SEC
5. Vanderbilt
Last season’s record: 4-8, 2-6 SEC
Key players: QB Kyle Shurmur, HB Ralph Webb, LB Zach Cunningham
Analysis: When Derek Mason took over at Vandy in 2014, I thought he’d be ousted sooner rather than later. He went 3-9 overall — with squeaky wins over UMass, Charleston Southern and Old Dominion — in his first year. That’s bad, especially after his predecessor, James Franklin, had turned the perennial SEC doormat into a contender. But last season, Vanderbilt showed serious signs of improvement not just record-wise, but in terms of stability and making fewer mistakes. So while there are certainly questions — namely regarding underclassman Kyle Shurmer at quarterback — there are some things to like about the Commodores in 2016.
Prediction: 6-6, 3-5 SEC
6. Missouri
Last season’s record: 5-7, 1-7 SEC
Key players: QB Drew Lock, WR J’Mon Moore, WR Nate Brown
Analysis: Last season’s 5-7 campaign could’ve been worse for the Tigers. And this season probably will be. There’s just too much turmoil in having an underclassman under center, a new defensive-minded head coach and a new athletic director. That coupled with a lack of established playmakers has the making for a miserable year of football at Mizzou. Barring an unforeseen emergence of several players, the Tigers are likely doomed to another season of mediocrity.
Prediction: 5-7, 2-6 SEC
7. South Carolina
Last season’s record: 3-9, 1-7 SEC
Key players: QB Brandon McIlwain, LB Bryson Allen-Williams, DE Marquavius Lewis
Analysis: Rounding out the SEC East as the ultimate cellar-dweller is South Carolina. The reason, put simply, is that I have no logical reason to believe the Gamecocks will improve from last season. And last season, as their record shows, they were b-a-d. The lack of improvement starts with the hiring of Will Muschamp, which nearly forced me to fall out of my chair when it happened. Why the South Carolina administration thinks the same man who failed at an already successful Florida program could turn around an already-failing South Carolina program is beyond me. Then there’s the quarterback situation, where true freshman Brandon McIlwain and redshirt senior Perry Orth are the two favorites. The fact that Orth is being challenged by a true freshman is certainly concerning, because even if McIlwain turns out to be a transcendent talent down the road, few teams go far with a true freshman at quarterback. And with a sparse supporting cast, it seems likely that South Carolina is destined for another year as a bottom feeder.
Prediction: 3-9, 1-7 SEC
Ethan Bauer is the assistant sports editor. Contact him at ebauer@alligator.org and follow him on Twitter @ebaueri.
