Linda Swann’s nightmare scenario may soon become her reality. An electric Jaguar I-PACE vehicle rounds a corner, creeps to a gentle halt and whisks passengers across town. The Jaguar, vying to become Swann’s competition, is a cluster of cameras, sensors and software — a robotaxi.
The 64-year-old Tampa driver is among the growing number of ride-share contractors anxiously anticipating an industry overhaul. The sector’s dominant players, Uber and Lyft, recently revved up efforts to integrate driverless vehicles into their fleets, threatening some drivers’ livelihoods.
“A lot of these ride-share drivers use this platform to make money for their families, and it’s their only source of income, so it’s sad that it’s gone to this,” she said.
Swann started working for Uber and Lyft three years ago, looking for flexible work and steady pay. She said she’s since soured on the companies’ management styles and is worried about their automation plans. Six months ago, Swann began weaning off ride-hailing apps before her corporate superiors could potentially unseat her.
Now, she’s established an independent driving service, allowing her to curate a pool of clients and pocket 100% of her earnings. She advises others in the business to do the same and insulate themselves from market volatility as autonomous vehicles flood the zone.
A new transportation frontier
Last summer, Google’s parent company, Alphabet, introduced its self-driving taxi service, Waymo One, to San Francisco streets. The cars employ radars, computers, artificial intelligence and sensors to navigate, which are generally reliable but not fail-safe tools. Following a series of high-profile accidents, Alphabet briefly recalled its cars in 2024 and returned to the drawing board to correct safety issues.
The robotaxi service, powered by Jaguar I-PACE electric cars, now operates in two other U.S. cities: Los Angeles and Phoenix. It has scheduled launches in Austin, Texas, and Atlanta. Across its commercial markets, Waymo provides more than 150,000 weekly rides.
The company plans to debut in Miami early this year, launching its cars in testing stages. It aims to make its ride-hailing service publicly available there in 2026.
Industry analysts warn the cars will soon create state-by-state regulatory challenges. Florida does not currently require specific operating permits for autonomous vehicles, which some officials believe could jeopardize traffic safety, according to the Miami Herald.
Humans take a backseat to big tech
Uber, which enjoys a 76% share of the ride-hailing market and manages nearly 4 million drivers in Florida, abandoned efforts to create its own robotaxis in 2020. It signed multi-year contracts with robotaxi companies Waymo in 2023 and General Motors’ Cruise in 2024.
It also has partnerships with driverless companies Motional, Avride and Aurora to add automated services to its fleet. Uber’s ride-share rival, Lyft, works with Mobileye, May Mobility, Motional and Nexar to bring driverless tech to its customers.
The Economic Development Research Group estimated Uber contributed about $1.1 billion to Florida’s annual gross domestic product in 2017, the most recent year for which data is available. That means if the company replaces its current workforce with robotaxis, the state could see an erosion of economic productivity.
Andrew Macdonald, Uber’s senior vice president of mobility, told The Wall Street Journal earlier this month that the pivot toward automation has long been in the works. In preparation for a driverless future, the company has undertaken a full-scale infrastructure makeover, finding storage and charging space for its new fleet of electric vehicles and training mechanics to maintain them.
Newly minted Target associate Matthew Santos said he may have dodged a bullet when he quit driving for Uber. The 25-year-old Santa Fe human resources senior said he wasn’t earning enough to make the job worthwhile, and considering a robot could one day supplant him, he’s happy to have exited the market when he did.
Santos said he doubts Uber and Lyft have plans to protect drivers’ jobs as they introduce robotaxis to the market.
“Once they do get it up and running, I assume it's not going to be good for people who still want to make a living off of Uber,” Santos said. “They’re just doing what’s best for their bottom dollar, but I mean, at the end of the day, it’s a business, it’s a company, so I’m not surprised that’s what they want to do.”
Uber has disputed robotaxis will destroy jobs en masse. The company’s CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi, recently told The New York Times that automation could unlock opportunities for displaced drivers in areas such as customer service, vehicle maintenance and recruitment.
The companies could not provide comment in time for publication.
Some drivers remain undaunted
Andy Esteller, a 29-year-old Gainesville Uber driver, isn’t convinced a robot could easily replace him. He said human drivers will remain integral to Uber’s business model, regardless of the company’s plans for automation.
“Trust me, Uber is always gonna want more drivers on the road, especially on heavy days,” he said. “The Uber driver is such a good liability, because it’s my car; it’s my driving.”
Esteller explained that by contracting freelance drivers, Uber avoids financial responsibility for accidents, gas, insurance and vehicle maintenance.
As Uber transitions to a capital-intensive robotaxi model, it will have to spend billions upfront on equipment like cars and charging stations, a Morgan Stanley analyst told The Wall Street Journal in October. Later, it will be responsible for repairs and technological upgrades.
Swirling questions and adoption hurdles
The industry must also contend with existing deficiencies and consumer skepticism.
“There’s still the question of who is more efficient,” said Patricia Kio, an assistant professor in UF’s sustainability and the built environment program.
Riders in a rush may still opt for Uber and Lyft over robotaxis. Due to limited availability, self-driving autos generally take longer to hail. Travel times may also be slower, as the cars are programmed to avoid complex shortcuts most human drivers can navigate. And unlike humans, robotaxis must adhere strictly to speed limits and traffic signs.
That’s why Kio thinks autonomous vehicles will never replace traditional cars; instead, the two will share the roads.
Although self-driving car proponents argue the vehicles offer safer transportation by curbing human error behind the wheel, that doesn’t mean people are ready to fling themselves into robotaxis. The public’s reticence to adopt the technology could undermine Uber and Lyft’s automated aspirations.
According to a Pew Research Center analysis, about six in 10 adults say they wouldn’t ride in a robotaxi, and about 45% say they’d be uncomfortable driving alongside the vehicles.
What’s coming down the pike?
While Cruise and Waymo cars aren’t yet burning rubber down I-75, that’s about to change. Pruthvi Manjunatha, a researcher in UF’s civil and coastal engineering department, predicts the public will encounter autonomous vehicles more often within the next five years.
“I think we are right on the cusp of most of these technologies going from pilot to actual usage,” he said.
Autonomous shuttles are already operating in Gainesville, Orlando and Lake Nona, but robotaxis in the state are still undergoing tests.
Manjunatha, the program manager for UF’s I-STREET lab, which tests and deploys advanced transportation technologies, stressed the importance of transparency as driverless car companies rush products to market. He and his research team analyze publicly available data from robotaxi manufacturers and make technological recommendations for improving safety and mobility.
But not all companies readily share their algorithmic information, which creates regulatory blindspots and hampers researchers’ ability to assess the safety of emerging systems.
Manjunatha said the I-STREET lab works to combat industry opaqueness by signing data and nondisclosure agreements with automakers to access protected datasets. It also facilitates discussions between mobility companies and public agencies through meetings and showcases.
“We are trying to solve a certain problem with the technology, so if safety is one of those problems, we need to have access to those data,” Manjunatha said.
Meanwhile, ride-share juggernaut Uber doesn’t seem as concerned about its drivers, according to Xiang Yan, director of UF’s Just & Green Transportation lab. Although Yan said it’s unlikely robotaxis will entirely crowd out human drivers, he’s confident they’re about to send waves through the industry.
“I don’t think the current Uber and Lyft drivers have any advantage in this kind of environment,” Yan said. “The threats from the robotaxis, the disruption on the transportation industry, I think, is real, and we need to be prepared.”
Contact Natalie Kaufman at nkaufman@alligator.org. Follow her on X @Nat_Kauf.
Natalie Kaufman is a sophomore journalism student and the Alligator's Fall 2024 Metro General Assignment reporter. In her free time, she likes drinking copious amounts of caffeine and running.
