The Florida baseball team could have played itself into being an NCAA Tournament lock with a strong finish to its season. Instead, the Gators lost seven of those 12 games, including two of three to unranked Auburn and Georgia. Today, alligatorSports baseball writers Josh Jurnovoy and Adam Lichtenstein debate what will give Florida more trouble in this week’s Southeastern Conference tournament: hitting or pitching.
Josh: Both the lineup and pitching staff have significantly underachieved for the Gators this season. However, the bats have been absolutely dormant lately. Meanwhile, the arms have shown signs of rounding into form. In the final series of the regular season, Florida got two strong starts from right-hander Jonathon Crawford and left-hander Bobby Poyner. Offensively, the team only mustered seven runs in three games against the staff with the leagues second-worst ERA at 4.61.
The potential is clearly there for the pitching staff to be a strength for this team, but the flashes just haven’t been there at the plate.
Adam: Crawford and Poyner turned in those starts against the cellar-dwelling Bulldogs – not exactly a selling point.
The last time Crawford faced a team with a record above .500, he got rocked for four runs in four innings. Crawford has a world of talent, but he has not been close to the ace Florida needed him to be this season.
Poyner has not been the model of consistency, either. He has made it into the sixth inning four times as a starter. Two of those games were against Florida Atlantic and Florida Gulf Coast. I know the Gators have had trouble with the Eagles this season, but come on, Gulf Coast plays in the Atlantic Sun Conference.
The other two outings were against Georgia and Tennessee – the worst teams in the SEC East. Neither team will be in Hoover, Ala., with Florida this week.
The Gators have talented bats that are due to turn things around. The pitching, however, has been inconsistent all season.
Josh: Although this last weekend wasn’t the best litmus test for how Florida will perform against better teams in postseason play, it’s the most recent sample, and the pitchers were better. They’ve also turned in quality outings this season against better lineups than Georgia’s. Poyner might not be a workhorse, but he turned in four strong innings in Tallahassee against then-No. 7 FSU and held FGCU — a team that had swept Florida earlier in the season — to one run in 5.1 innings. Crawford has thrown a shutout against Ole Miss and has a quality outing against then-No. 8 South Carolina under his belt.
Also, Johnny Magliozzi, who has been dominant against both good and bad teams, is moving to the rotation this week. Meanwhile, the offense has scored more than five runs just six times since the beginning of April (I’m not counting the 22-run outburst against 6-42 Florida A&M on May 6).
One of the talented bats you’re counting on to figure things out is catcher Taylor Gushue. He went 0 for 12 against Georgia, which isn’t something that can be easily dismissed. Gushue is supposed to be the team’s best power hitter, and a stretch like that isn’t one you want to be in as the postseason approaches.
Adam: Gushue slumped against Georgia, but he’s only one of Florida’s several talented bats. Justin Shafer went 4 for 11 in Athens. Vickash Ramjit went 5 for 11. Harrison Bader went 4 for 8.
If one or two players don’t hit, it’s a problem, but it’s not fatal to the Gators’ chances. If the pitching struggles, Florida won’t be playing much longer.
It’s simple baseball. If the Gators’ pitchers shut out the opposition, the offense only needs to score one run. If the pitchers collapse, the offense needs to step up that much more.
Magliozzi will give the Gators a boost in the rotation, and he may carry them past the Aggies, but Kevin O’Sullivan is robbing Peter to pay Paul. Sully clearly would prefer him in the pen – that’s why he’s only started him twice all season. Magliozzi is a decent starter, but he’s a great closer.
In his limited time as a starter, he’s given up six earned runs in 12.2 innings. That’s good, not great.
That’s nearly as many runs as he gave up in 44 innings of relief. Now that’s domination.
Starting Magliozzi shows just how desperate O’Sullivan is for good pitching.
Josh: Magliozzi has been Florida’s best reliever all season, but moving him to the rotation will lessen the burden on those remaining in the bullpen. Even though his ERA isn’t great as a starter, he hasn’t been chased early in those outings. His seven-inning performance last time out against Auburn is the longest start for any UF pitcher this season besides Crawford’s one shutout.
The point that the offense only needs to score one run if the pitchers throw shutouts is a valid one. But based on what we’ve seen, the more likely scenario is that the pitchers will be solid and not allow more than a few runs, and the bats will struggle to be average.
Adam: The problem is that the kind of “solid” we’ve seen from Florida pitchers is not going to cut it in the postseason. Four or five innings of three-run ball just isn’t good enough.
Crawford doesn’t need to repeat his no-hit performance from last year’s NCAA Tournament, but he needs to be somewhere in the vicinity. Magliozzi needs to continue his performance against better teams than Auburn. If Florida advances, it needs Poyner, Eric Hanhold or somebody to step up and deliver quality pitching. The offense will perform, but it can’t bail out its starters like last season.
Contact Adam Lichtenstein at alichtenstein@alligator.org. Contact Josh Jurnovoy at jjurnovoy@alligator.org.
Senior Vickash Ramjit swings at a pitch against Florida State on March 12,at McKethan Stadium. UF will play in the Southeastern Conference Tournament today against TAMU.
