Davidson, Belmont, Minnesota and St. Mary’s will be the teams that defy their seeding and open the Big Dance with upsets.
I say this not just because those teams are good — an obvious prerequisite — but because they most closely resemble the teams that have slain Goliaths before.
In the past 10 seasons, 43 teams seeded 11 or lower have won their first-round matchup.
A close examination of the winner’s KenPom.com profile, the loser’s KenPom.com profile and the box score reveals some interesting trends.
Every upset is different, but offense was usually the biggest key to underdog success.
Taken as a group, the 43 games can be treated as a season, with all of the upset winners viewed collectively as Team Underdog. That team posted a 110.9 offensive efficiency and a 99.5 defensive efficiency. Because the national average for efficiency in 2013 is 100.6, we see that these teams have been much more reliant on offense than defense.
The key to this offensive success has been multifaceted, but the biggest difference is that Team Underdog hits a berserk percentage of threes. The average three-point shooting percentage of the winners was an absurd 43.4 percent. If an NCAA team shot 43.4 percent from three in 2013, it would lead the nation in that category by a full percentage point.
Team Underdog’s offensive success has also been related to not turning the ball over. On average, those upset winners gave it away on just 17.9 percent of possessions. The 2013 NCAA average is 20.
Team Underdog was also good at shooting twos (49.4 percent), getting to the free-throw line (40 FTA/FGA, 2013 NCAA average is 36), and keeping the favorite off the charity stripe (allowing 31.3 FTA/FGA).
To try to determine how predictable those results might be, I looked at the advanced stats profile of all 43 upset winners on KenPom.com. Unsurprisingly, the teams were usually pretty good, with an average offensive efficiency of 108.7 and an average defensive efficiency of 94.8. Many of their strengths in the upsets mimic what they did successfully during the season.
On average, they shot well from three (35.7 percent), shot well from two (49.9 percent) and got to the free-throw line (37.9 FTA/FGA). They were also good at offensive rebounding (34.6 percent, 2013 NCAA average is 31.8) and forcing turnovers (22 percent of opponent possessions), although these strengths did not consistently show in their upsets.
So, taken as a whole, I’m looking for upset candidates who, in order:
1. Have strong offensive efficiencies
2. Shoot threes well
3. Avoid turnovers
4. Play adequate defense
5. Get to the free-throw line
6. Shoot twos well
7. Keep opponents off the free-throw line
8. Offensive rebound
9. Force turnovers
10. Don’t have any glaring weaknesses
But there are two parts to every upset. What teams are the most vulnerable? In my findings, the teams that got upset averaged a 113.5 offensive efficiency rating and a 92.6 defensive efficiency rating during the season, meaning they were also offense-first teams.
Because they were seeded high enough to be upset candidates, there isn’t really a lot of negative things to say about them as a group. The only trend I could really find was that they were all average in terms of turnovers (giveaways on 19.6 percent of possessions), forcing turnovers (takeaways on 20.6 percent of possessions) and defensive rebounding (allowed 31.8 percent offensive rebounding).
Based on the same game data I mentioned before — only this time viewing the 43 games as a season for Team Favorite — I’m looking for 2013 teams that don’t defend well, don’t force turnovers, don’t get to the free-throw line and put the other team on the free-throw line too often. The game data also showed that Team Favorite would often become three-pointer happy and go on missing sprees.
So, taken as a whole, I’m looking for upset candidates who:
1. Focus more on offense than defense
2. Don’t take care of the ball
3. Don’t force turnovers
4. Don’t win the free-throw battle
5. Sometimes go insane from outside
Before I get to the picks, one important note is that these factors can only do so much to make up gaps in efficiency. For example, No. 16 seed LIU Brooklyn is an offense-first team that shoots well, wins the battle of the free-throw line and grabs offensive rebounds. But it ranks No. 319 in defensive efficiency, so picking LIU to beat No. 1 seed Indiana would be moronic.
The deepest, darkest sleeper picks I would never advise making are (15) Iona over (2) Ohio State and (15) Florida Gulf Coast over (2) Georgetown. Iona shoots a lot of threes fairly accurately without turning the ball over, and FGCU could force some turnovers. But neither is truly good enough to be expected to win.
I considered (13) South Dakota State over (4) Michigan, as this game should become a jump-shooting contest that could go either way.
(12) Ole Miss is solid all around and won’t turn the ball over, but its style matches up terribly with (5) Wisconsin.
(11) Bucknell won’t exploit (6) Butler’s turnover problem, but it could put up enough threes to be dangerous.
As for the picks I actually am making:
-(14) Davidson beats (3) Marquette: Davidson won’t turn the ball over and should get good looks at threes. The Wildcats should hold their own on the boards, and they have the big men to contain Davante Gardner. I worry they won’t stop Vander Blue on the perimeter, but I can’t go against the stats.
-(11) Minnesota beats (6) UCLA: The Bruins are an offense-first team that doesn’t rebound, force turnovers or get to the line. The Golden Gophers, the nation’s leader in offensive rebounding percentage, will own the boards, and UCLA won’t make the most of Minnesota’s turnover problem. The Gophers are flat-out better on both sides of the ball, especially after the injury to the Bruins’ Jordan Adams.
-(11) Belmont beats (6) Arizona: Belmont forces turnovers and can exploit a careless Arizona offense. The Bruins will also take and make a lot of threes, as the Wildcats won’t force turnovers. In a battle of two offense-first teams, Belmont will have the edge if this becomes a shooting contest.
-(11) St. Mary’s beats (6) Memphis: My system likes Memphis, save for their turnover problem, but St. Mary’s is the more efficient team regardless. With a low-turnover, three-happy offense and average defense, the Gaels are primed to bust some brackets.
Contact Greg Luca at gluca@alligator.org.
Davidson’s De’Mon Brooks (24) shoots as College of Charleston’s Adjehi Baru (1) defends during the second half of the Southern Conference tournament final on March 11.
