At the height of the Gators’ victory in the 2007 NCAA men's basketball tournament, another historical moment lurked — the 2007-2009 recession.
Now as past and current Gator fans watch the 2025 game against Houston, a familiar economic shift could be on the way.
JP Morgan became the first bank to forecast a global economic recession April 4 with a 60% probability, notably up from the 40% it initially predicted late March.
But some students, like Olivia Poe, a 20-year-old UF psychology junior, don’t believe the country will enter a recession. More specifically, she has faith in God that one won’t happen. But if it did, maybe it’s “what needs to happen” for the Gators to win.
Poe arrived to the O’Dome five hours before seating opened.
“I don't feel we're gonna have a recession because A — single handedly, I shop enough to save us and B — I just have faith that we won't,” Poe said.
A recession “involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months,” according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Amid President Donald Trump imposing tariffs, Amanda Phalin, a UF business professor, said there will be a recession this year. Phalin believes Florida can expect to see less tourism, more impacts on education and more businesses declining, she said.
“When we have volatility and uncertainty in the market and in the economy, that means that people are more risk averse,” Phalin said. “They’re not going to be spending as much money on buying goods and services, or spending as much money on investing in their business.”
The best way to prepare for a recession is to not spend, Phalin said.
Similarly, Phalin noted what makes a potential 2025 recession so pivotal is the fact that it’s “self-inflicted.” In 2007, the recession was an unexpected crash. This potential recession, however, will have been created entirely by the Trump administration, she said.
GDPNow, a model for gross domestic product growth, has entered the negative territory. If the data continues to be accurate, it may suggest a recession has already begun.
Anabella Fernandez, a 21-year-old UF animal science junior, also said she was not worried about a recession, t she is now uncertain as to whether the Gators winning may be bad luck.
“I mean, now I'm like, ‘Wait, should the Gators not win?’” Fernandez said.
A 2023 report by QuadC outlined how “historically, state funding for higher education is usually the first to be slashed during a recession.” Recessions also tend to impact tuition rates and college completion rates.
Similarly, a 2013 Harvard paper analyzing the effects of a recession on college students revealed a mix of positive and negative impacts, such as growing unemployment reducing the costs of attendance while also decreasing family incomes and home values.
Chris Smith, a 38-year-old UF alum, found himself grappling with the effects of a recession at the same time he was celebrating back-to-back NCAA Gator championships in 2007. Though he said he wasn’t affected too deeply, he witnessed the outside perspective of the market crash that left thousands without jobs or housing.
Smith said he hopes that like in 2007, the Gators will win this game — minus the recession.
“There's a pretty good chance [for a recession],” Smith said. “Theoretically, if history repeats itself.”
Contact Vivienne Serret at vserret@alligator.org. Follow her on X @vivienneserret.
Vivienne Serret is a UF journalism and criminology senior, serving as the Fall 2024 race and equity reporter for The Alligator's Enterprise desk. She previously worked as a columnist and previously reported for The Alligator's university desk as the student government reporter. She loves karaoke and lifting at the gym.
