There’s about 53 hours until Florida basketball will tip off in the NCAA Tournament. That includes three and a half hours of flights, a little over 40 minutes of bus travel and maybe a 12-hour hotel stay near the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina. When the Gators wake on Friday, they’ll have their biggest game of the season so far: No. 16 seeded Norfolk State.
The aforementioned statement is categorically correct. Over the last four and a half months, 29.41% of UF’s games will have come against ranked opponents (10). Seven of those contests were against top 10 teams, with two featuring the No. 1 team in the nation. However, Friday just means more. Lose, and Florida will go home.
In the 40 years that the NCAA Tournament has included 64 teams, there have only been two instances in which a No. 16 seed has won. Both have come in the last decade, with the most recent in 2023 when Purdue fell to Fairleigh Dickinson. While the odds aren’t in Norfolk State’s favor, the Gators don’t want to complete the trio of upsets.
Here are the primary storylines of No. 1 seed Florida basketball’s Round of 64 scouting report.
All about the bass (tempo)
UF head coach Todd Golden has said his team plays fast, but in control. One of those two pieces is completely true, as Florida is in the top 60 nationally in tempo. However, the Gators are far from mistake free, averaging over 10 turnovers per game (sub-280 nationally).
That could be critical against Norfolk State. The Spartans are 226th in adjusted tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) and have a turnover rate that ranks nationally in the top 150. The Virginia natives lean on a controlled pace that allows their offense to set itself up and get good shots, resulting in the 26th highest field goal percentage in the nation.
In the last five years, all but one upset with a more than three-seed-line difference has featured dramatically distinct paces. When Purdue lost to Fairleigh Dickinson, it relied on a slow-tempo offense that FDU exploited by pushing the ball up the court.
Additionally, slower-paced underdogs compete better in the NCAA Tournament because they keep games close. Norfolk State will look to draw Florida into a slugfest, and the further the Gators stray from their typical, up-and-down the court offense, the better odds they’ll have of becoming the next laughing stock of collegiate basketball.
“Whoever is able to dictate the terms and the tempo I think has the best chance to win,” Golden said ahead of his contest with slow-paced Tennessee in the SEC Championship, recognizing his team’s flaw. A similar thought process likely applies entering Florida’s Friday contest.
Guards on guards
Florida’s trio of starring senior guards has been well-documented. UF’s offensive production comes from Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard 53.40% of the time, which is near the top of the nation for any trio of players. With that in mind, the Gators won’t be the only team in Raleigh relying on a guard-heavy offensive approach.
Graduate student Brian Moore Jr., a transfer from Murray State, leads the Spartans with 18.4 points per game. He earned Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) Newcomer of the Year as he guided Norfolk State to its third conference championship since 2021.
When Moore Jr. isn’t scoring, graduate student Christian Ings is. He averages 11.9 points per game, while only one other Spartan reaches double-digits. Moore Jr. and Ings each shoot 40% or better from three, but they’ve only combined for 141 attempts this season.
Last year, the pair would’ve concerned Florida more than it does now. The Gators’ defensive efficiency improved by 85 slots this season, per KenPom, with Florida now ranking No. 9 in the nation. It can be partially attributed to an emphasis by Golden on evening his team’s strengths.
“If we don't improve defensively, we have the opportunity to stay in the same spot we did last year,” Golden said. “So [we] really made a concerted effort to be more balanced in practice.”
Maintaining Focus
It’s Norfolk State. Not Auburn. Not Duke. Not even UConn. But that may be part of the danger of this matchup.
While it isn’t frequent that No. 1 seeds lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, upsets happen all the time. Since 1985, an average of eight upsets occur each year where the winning team is five seeds lower than its opponent. However, in nine of the last 13 tournaments, at least 10 have happened.
If Florida doesn’t want to join the growing fab for losing in the NCAA Tournament when you shouldn’t, it will need to remain focused. That feels straight forward, but after facing three consecutive ranked teams in the SEC Tournament, and defeating each of them by at least nine points, it's easy to look ahead.
The Gators will be joined by No. 8 seed reigning national champion UConn and No. 9 seed Oklahoma in Raleigh. A victory against Norfolk State would slate UF to take on one, a much easier matchup to drift your mind towards. Arguably Florida’s largest challenge this weekend will be keeping its sight on the team in front of it.
"We're a hungry group," senior guard Will Richard said. "We know the main goal… Cutting down the nets is a great feeling, but we want to do it in the NCAA tournament as well."
Contact Noah White at nwhite@alligator.org. Follow him on X @noahwhite1782.
Noah is a Spring 2025 Assistant Sports Editor and Copy Desk Chief. He's a second-year journalism major who enjoys reading and shamefully rooting for Tennessee sports teams. He is also a Liberty League Women's Soccer expert.
