This year’s awards season has been nothing short of attention-grabbing. Whether it’s the controversy surrounding “Emilia Pérez” dominating across categories to the anticipation of seeing Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande continue their “Wicked” method dressing, Hollywood’s greats have made headlines left and right. However, before the season comes to a close, there’s one award show left that’s certain to draw in viewers: the 97th Academy Awards.
On Sunday night, the biggest names in film will come together to celebrate a successful year of film. From “The Substance” to “A Complete Unknown” to “The Brutalist,” entertainment connoisseurs are in for a night of glitz, glamour and of course, competition. With a year of box office achievements and cinematic trailblazers, there’s one question on people’s minds: who will take home the Oscar?
In anticipation for Hollywood’s biggest night, the Avenue staff has come together to break down its predictions and hopes for who will win categories such as Best Picture, Actor In A Leading Role and Screenplay.
Best Picture
By Tanya Fedak
Predicted Oscars Pick: “Conclave”
Tanya’s Pick: “Wicked”
It’s not every day nine million tulips are planted to be briefly featured in a film. It’s an excellent example of attention to detail, dedication and a desire for excellence, which accurately describe the overall production of “Wicked” and all its moving parts.
Every element that went into creating this film was intentional and well-thought-out, which can be seen through the intricate details in the set, costuming and staging throughout the nearly three hour journey. Director Jon M. Chu said when it came to the early stages of production, he knew he wanted to create an immersive world. So, that’s what he did. A video posted by Animation World Network shows just how much work went into the process behind the scenes, and that alone is a testament to why this film should win Best Picture. When you combine it with everything the audience sees on screen, ranging from the vulnerability and intensity the actors brought to the table to the demanding songs and choreography, its win should be a no-brainer.
However, “Wicked” has so far had a rather unlucky awards season, often losing to films like “Emilia Pérez” and, in the case of the SAG Awards, Edward Berger’s “Conclave.” “Conclave” brings an element of seriousness and vehemence seeming to prove to be the secret formula for securing Best Picture (i.e. “Oppenheimer” and “Moonlight”). Although an undisputable amount of work went into the creation and execution of “Conclave,” “Wicked” remains unparalleled and deserves to take home the Oscar.
Actor in a Leading Role
By Autumn Johnstone
Predicted Oscars Pick: Adrien Brody, ”The Brutalist”
Autumn’s Pick: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Shortly after Timothée Chalamet became the youngest actor to ever win Best Actor at the Screen Actors Guild Awards for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown,” he said, “I want to be one of the greats.” And that’s exactly what he’s become. Anyone who watched the film — or watched it many times since its release like I did — knows that this movie solidified his prominence in the entertainment industry. Despite many critics claiming Adrien Brody in “The Brutalist” should win Actor in a Leading Role at the Oscars, I whole-heartedly disagree.
While both actors are incredibly talented at bringing intensity to the screen, it ultimately comes down to the effort they pour into their roles. Considering Chalamet took five years to prepare for “A Complete Unknown” and Brody took only 34 days, Chalamet wins by far. Chalamet constantly studied Bob Dylan’s unique mannerisms and even performed almost every song in the movie live, pushing the common practice of pre-recording to the side.
Chalamet is a bit of a perfectionist, as he said he didn’t just want to “imitate” Bob Dylan; he needed to become him. As soon as I sat down to watch “A Complete Unknown” in theaters, I was transported into the world of the Grammy-winning singer. I didn’t have to guess which decade or what city it was set in. It was the beginning of Dylan’s career, and Chalamet played him with perfection — even down to Dylan’s signature distant gaze.
As Chalamet paced down a reimagined 1960s Greenwich Village, we realize he dominates every role he plays. From Tom in “Interstellar” to Elio in “Call Me By Your Name,” he does it with deep intention, all while mastering the art of depicting complex emotions. Chalamet will continue to make history again and again.
Actress in a Supporting Role
By Tanya Fedak
Predicted Oscars Pick: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Tanya’s Pick: Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
I have not only been a life-long Ariana Grande fan, but also a life-long insufferable theater enthusiast. The only music playing on my drives to middle school were “Dangerous Woman” and the “Wicked” soundtrack, so you can imagine my excitement when I first learned Grande would be playing Glinda Upland in the film — my all-time dream role. “Wicked” was the first professional musical I saw when I was only 12 years old, it will always hold a special place in my heart. At 21 years old, I now know this show like the back of my hand, so I’m confidently qualified in knowing what it takes to execute a successful performance as Glinda the Good. Grande’s performance wasn’t just successful; it was excellent.
On the surface, Glinda is, as her title suggests, good. She is kind, energetic and bubbly. When you peel back the layers, however, the character is incredibly complex and is made up of a plethora of contradictions and uncertainties. She’s not inherently “good." Glinda is narcissistic, but she is also selfless. Glinda is confident, but wildly insecure. Only an actress who understands emotional complexity can deliver a performance that encapsulates Glinda’s true character, and Grande certainly delivered. Every time she was on the screen, each of her movements were intentional and revealed something about the character. It’s also important to note Grande sang each of her songs live, which were vocally challenging and emotionally demanding.
Although I believe she should take home the golden statue for this performance, I predict Saldaña will be the one to win the category. Her portrayal of Rita Mora Castro in “Emilia Pérez” has been a favorite for critics and has already earned her a multitude of awards, including SAG and Golden Globes. It’s likely her winning streak will continue at this year’s Academy Awards.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
By Juliana DeFillipo
Predicted Oscars Pick: “Anora”
Juliana’s Pick: “A Real Pain”
After winning the Palme D’Or at Cannes Film Festival last year, Sean Baker’s “Anora” emerged as an immediate favorite among critics and has largely maintained its momentum, picking up awards for directing and acting at events like the BAFTAs. Now facing off with more traditional Oscar-winning films like “Conclave" and “The Brutalist” — which are male-dominated and concerned with epic moral conflictions — for awards like Best Picture, “Anora” possesses the character-driven narrative that makes it ideal for a Best Original Screenplay award (think, “Promising Young Woman”).
While the film has been criticized for not fleshing out its title character, Ani is a heartfelt and dignified depiction of a woman entangled in a deeply confusing and hurtful conflict. Even when in a situation in which she has little to no agency, Baker gives the character direction and curiosity, making her an active voice and player in the search for her husband.
However, the screenplay benefits greatly from Mikey Madison’s deservedly nominated performance, which brings that active voice to life and effortlessly humanizes it. The screenplay alone would not have the same impact, unlike “A Real Pain.”
Jesse Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin gave life to the script for “A Real Pain,” the story of two cousins visiting their late grandmother’s home in Poland. While strong performances are at the core of “Anora,” Eisenberg’s writing is at the core of “A Real Pain,” creating vignettes of grief, loneliness and familiarity. While I would love to see “A Real Pain” win for its profound writing, Baker’s win for Best Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild Awards only helps “Anora’s” chances of an Oscar win.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
By Juliana DeFillipo
Predicted Oscars Pick: “Conclave”
Juliana’s Pick: “Conclave”
In what several people are describing as the “Real Housewives of Vatican City,” “Conclave” hypnotized viewers with its thrilling depiction of a seemingly arcane and inaccessible process: the election of a pope.
Based on the novel of the same name by Robert Harris, the movie has earned several nominations and wins during this awards season, and it is now leading many predictions for Best Picture. But out of all the awards it has been nominated for, Best Adapted Screenplay seems to be a guarantee. The writing is undoubtedly engaging and immerses viewers in a world otherwise entirely closed off to them.
Not only does screenwriter Peter Straughan elucidate the confusing process of conclave, but he also creates rich, immensely dislikable characters out of apparent bastions of holiness, illuminating the pitfalls of ambition. He is even able to render the tangible, looming presence of the recently deceased pope, who the cardinals are voting to replace. Caddy, serious and dramatic all at once, “Conclave’s” writing is undoubtedly deserving of recognition.
Animated Feature Film
By Corey Fiske
Predicted Oscars Pick: “Flow”
Corey’s Pick: “Inside Out 2”
The Best Animated Feature category pits blockbuster animated films against lesser-known works. In the past, Academy Award voters chose big-budget films, but recently, films with less box-office success took home the prize.
“Flow” stands out among the rest of the nominees for its lack of dialogue and its artistic animation style. However, I found the movie looked like a video game at times. I also felt unsettled by the whale-like creature and the birds.
I predict “Flow” will win Best Animated Feature, although it's not my personal pick. The film’s underlying messages of community and survival, as well as studying our complex relationship with water, are likely to resonate with voters.
I want “Inside Out 2” to win not only for its depiction of Anxiety, but also the message of embracing every emotion, good and bad. The movie expanded on the world-building of the first one, which won Best Animated Feature in 2015. The visuals of the “belief system” are nothing short of a spectacle. My desire for the film to win this category may also be because I feel a sense of nostalgia — which is also an emotion depicted in “Inside Out 2” — from watching the movie for the first time at 11 years old.
Actress In A Leading Role
By Garrett Shanley
Predicted Oscars Pick: Demi Moore, “The Substance"
Garrett’s Pick: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
If any race this year is a toss up, it’s this one.
While Cynthia Erivo deftly anchored “Wicked” with her mezzo acrobatics, the film’s script doesn’t offer her character enough depth to compete with the other heavyweight contenders. Jon M. Chu’s lackluster direction doesn’t do her any favors either, leaving Erivo with a performance that, while memorable, feels less like a winner and more like a flag planted in the ground for future awards seasons.
At first, Karla Soíia Gascón seemed like a promising contender. But much like her character in “Emilia Pérez,” Gascón’s Oscar campaign went up in flames last month. Past misdeeds surfaced mid-race — in this case, troves of racist social media posts — likely torpedoing her chances of securing enough votes for a win.
That leaves Mikey Madison and Demi Moore as the obvious frontrunners. Madison delivered an electrifying turn in “Anora,” a film that has only gained momentum in recent weeks. Her blend of raw vulnerability with razor-sharp intensity makes her a formidable candidate. A win for Madison would solidify her as one of the most compelling young actresses working today.
Then, there’s Demi Moore. If you’ve seen “The Substance,” you know Moore didn’t just act — she detonated. Her performance as an aging, Jane Fonda-esque fitness guru who turns to a radical experimental procedure is nothing short of mesmerizing. It’s a fearless, full-throttle comeback that reminds audiences why Moore was once Hollywood royalty. An Oscar win wouldn’t only be a victory lap for her career, but also a validation of the risks she’s taken with this role.
I ultimately think Moore deserves the golden statue this year. Her performance in “The Substance” isn’t just great — it’s the kind of semi-auto-biographical feat that begs to be commended.
And have you seen “The Substance?” The woman needs a win.
Cinematography
By Garrett Shanley
Predicted Oscars Pick: Lol Crawley, “The Brutalist”
Garrett’s Pick: Jarin Blaschke, “Nosferatu”
In a category where big-budget pizazz has reigned in recent years, Lee Crowley could pull the Academy back to its arthouse sensibilities. Americana abounds in “The Brutalist,” and no other contender this year has yielded images with as much power as Crowley’s.
The film’s reprisal of VistaVision, a grainy but vibrant 50’s-era film stock, is also easy bait for Academy voters. After all, pastiche is their biggest vice.
Greg Frasier would be an obvious runner-up. But even after gracing IMAX screens with his infrared experimentations in “Dune: Part Two,” his win for the film’s predecessor three years ago is probably a turn-off for voters, who historically prefer having a larger time gap between two-peats.
There’s a slim-to-none chance my personal pick for cinematography, “Nosferatu,” will win; Demi Moore is poised to take home a win for her performance in “The Substance,” and it’s unlikely the Academy will shirk its aversion to horror movies twice in one night. That’s a shame, because Jarin Blaschke’s work is nothing short of hypnotic — every frame a haunting tableau of shadows and candlelight, drenched in gothic mood. His use of chiaroscuro is painterly, evoking Murnau’s silent original while forging something entirely its own.
But Oscar voters have their patterns, and Nosferatu may be too stark, too eerie and too relentlessly stylized to claim the prize. If Crawley doesn’t win, expect Fraser to ride Dune’s coattails to a second victory. Either way, the Academy will have to reckon with the fact that some of the year’s most breathtaking cinematography came from filmmakers unafraid to push the boundaries of visual storytelling.
Film Editing
By Garrett Shanley
Predicted Oscars Pick: Sean Baker, “Anora”
Garrett’s Pick: Nick Emerson, “Conclave”
Sean Baker’s genre-hopping in “Anora” makes it a strong contender for Best Editing, especially in a year when the Academy has leaned into bolder, risker choices. Transitioning from a Cinderella story to a screwball comedy to a gut-punch drama in under two and a half hours is the kind of ambitious storytelling voters love to showcase. It’s reminiscent of Jennifer Lame’s win last year for “Oppenheimer,” where her meticulous, non-chronological cut kept a dense narrative propulsive.
But on a second viewing, Anora’s breakneck tonal shifts felt less exhilarating and more exhausting. The hourlong wild goose chase in the second act, while undeniably funny, begins to drag once you know where it’s headed. The whiplash between its comedic chaos and its emotional rug pull in the third act is impressive, but it doesn’t feel completely seamless.
That’s why my pick is Nick Emerson for “Conclave.” Where Anora leans on sharp pivots and dizzying pacing, Conclave thrives in restraint. Emerson sculpts tensions from hushed glances and clipped exchanges, turning a dialogue-heavy thriller into a gripping gossip fest.
Anora may have the showiest editing, but Conclave has the sharpest. And in a category that’s favored the loudest choices in the past two years, I’d love to see the Academy reward the quiet option.
Music (Original Score)
By Garrett Shanley
Predicted Oscars Pick: Daniel Bertelmann, “The Brutalist”
Garrett’s Pick: Volker Bertelmann, “Conclave”
The film that should win wasn’t nominated.
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ techno-laden score injected loads of adrenaline into the intensity of “Challengers.” It could’ve done the same for a category where orchestral composers coast on stage for acceptance speeches, but it seems the Academy is still afraid to get a little risque.
(The Academy, too, volleyed a separate sweep of snubs for Halina Reijn’s erotic thriller “Babygirl,” which features a career-best performance from Nicole Kidman and a tight edit from Matthew Hannam.)
Begrudging feelings aside, Volker Bertelmann’s sobering stringwork on “Conclave” is well-deserving of a win — for me, at least. Bertelmann took home the award two years ago for “All Quiet on the Western Front” which, like Frasier, might knock him out of the race. That leaves Daniel Blumberg, who scored “The Brutalist,” as the heir apparent for the title this season.
This is an Avenue Staff Report
