After Donald Trump’s stunning win over Kamala Harris in both the popular vote and electoral college, cranks have lined up to offer their hot-take-masquerading-as-diagnosis for why Democrats underperformed in 2024. Some have pinned the blame on “wokeness,” claiming that Democrats going to bat for the rights of transgender people placed them in a bad position against an increasingly right-wing American population. Pronouns, “latinx” and defunding the police, according to these pundits, cost Harris the election.
Barring the fact that Harris did not, in fact, run on wokeness (campaigning with Liz Cheney, loudly defending an onerous border bill, and touting her gun ownership), other more level-headed diagnoses still somewhat miss the mark. Bernie Sanders, for example, argues that the Democrats failed to prioritize the working class, neglecting the economic concerns of the American people. Although I broadly agree with his argument, the answer is even more simple: Harris lost because of Joe Biden.
In almost every swing state Trump won, Democrats down the ballot continued to be elected. Senate Democrats won in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada while Democrats secured the governorship of North Carolina. Elected Democrats shared no singular ideology. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan is a former-CIA moderate while Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin is a progressive supporter of Medicare for All. Their only shared characteristic is that none are members of the Biden administration.
Even more damning against the “wokeness” explanation is that almost everywhere, progressive policies outran Democratic candidates. Seven states passed pro-abortion measures and deep red Missouri voted to raise the minimum wage.
To put it simply, voters were willing to support progressive policies and elect Democrats, just not those tied to an administration they see as an incompetent failure. Harris, although unburdened by the fact she isn’t an octogenarian, failed to sufficiently separate herself from Biden. One lowlight from her campaign was her stating “there is not a thing that comes to mind” when asked what she would have done differently from Biden. She surrounded herself with Biden advisors who had run his moribund campaign for months. Even after the medical episode Americans witnessed called a “debate,” Biden wasted precious weeks battling his own party over whether or not he should even run.
Not only are transphobic pundits within Democratic ranks ignoring the obvious fact that Biden’s abysmal unpopularity dragged Harris down and left her with a few months to run a presidential campaign, they are also objectively wrong on how Americans view trans issues. Data For Progress found that a majority of likely voters were more likely to vote for a pro-trans candidate, rejected anti-trans legislation and believed politicians are playing political theater on trans issues. Prior to 2024, the Republican party’s attempts at running primarily on transphobia had, almost across the board, failed in states even as deeply red as Kentucky. On the whole, Americans generally support trans rights but see it as a low-salient issue.
Democratic hacks scapegoating trans people are baselessly and irresponsibly fueling transphobia right before Trump’s second administration looks poised to unleash an unprecedented national attack on the rights of transgender Americans. Wokeness, however, didn’t lead to Trump’s ascendance — it was the stubbornness of an 81-year-old man who refused to see that Americans despised his administration.
Rey Arcenas is a UF history and women's studies senior.
