Once every four years, the two biggest teams in America put on the biggest shows in the country. Each flexing their accomplishments and wins of the previous years to sell a vision to Americans for their future. These events of showmanship are the Republican National Convention and the Democratic National Convention. From porn stars to presidents, the conventions brought big names in front of the country and gave their best shot at putting their candidate in the most powerful office in the world.
The first and most interesting was the RNC, and as always, the Republicans never fail to make headlines. The biggest question facing the future of the Republicans is how to handle an ideological split between new MAGA Republicans and old establishment Republicans. With each group fighting it out with accusations of warmongering, betrayal against the GOP or worst of all, working with Democrats in Congress. We saw it play out last year when Donald Trump disciple congressman Matt Gaetz ousted former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and replaced him with MAGA Republican Mike Johnson. This ideological split has played out since Trump won the nomination in 2016, entering a new age of the Republican party. The split between the old and new was on full display at the RNC. No former Republican presidents, or even former Vice President Mike Pence, were to be found near the RNC. In this election cycle, the ideological split of new “America First” policies vs. Neo-Conservatives will test the new ideology of Republicans. Many Gen Z Republican voters are starting to look like old Democratic voters with an emphasis on free speech, anti-war diplomacy and a right to life. Maybe this is why Republicans have been able to pick up support from Democrats like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who prioritize freedom of speech and public health. Besides, if a Kennedy endorsing Republicans isn’t a sign of a party realignment, I'm not sure what is.
The next biggest issue for Republicans in this conference is a two letter name: J.D. While J.D. Vance may be an up-and-coming name for the Republicans with his work in the Senate and his successful “Hillbilly Elegy” book, does anyone truly believe that this was the best pick to win? Sure, he may have similar policies to Trump and have the traits on paper of a vice president. But in practice, Vance has a weakness that no political consultant could’ve predicted. Awkwardness. Watching Vance campaign is like watching your weird uncle socialize at Thanksgiving. Nobody cares, nobody is interested and nobody wants him there. Videos of Vance at campaign stops having socially awkward conversations with voters and polling in negative numbers in swing states will create an issue for Republicans this fall. The Republicans also have an identity crisis within their base. Having Amber Rose, who is currently a rapper and porn star, as a speaker at the convention was one of the biggest messaging failures of the RNC. Republicans are losing a grip on the rustbelt states. A rapper with face tattoos and an OnlyFans account will not shift or solidify any swing state voters. Rose is the polar opposite of conservatism that attracted Midwest voters in the first place. If Republicans want to win this election, they need to return to their base and stop going after voters who would rather die than vote for a Republican.
The second half of the show took place in the Democratic stronghold of Chicago. The biggest question was “Who is Kamala Harris? And how did she get here?” Sure, she might be the vice president, but nobody ever believed she was qualified for the job. She couldn’t even finish Iowa for the 2020 Democratic primary. As a senator, she had an unimpressive record that did not gain national attention or impact any policy. As vice president, she is known more for her awkward laughter in every speech than her ideas or policy. So, without a vote in her name, she took the DNC head on and came out victorious. She rested the previous concerns of Biden being too senile for office and pushed him to the curb. Harris created a new brand of pop culture by bringing in rappers to her rallies and endorsements from Hollywood. The issue is, though, no one knows her policies or her vision. With the Biden-Harris White House failing on domestic policies, waging endless war with Russia, sending billions of dollars to Iran to attack Israel and 29 U.S. embassies having to be evacuated, Vice President Harris needs to give a convincing explanation on why she deserves to stay in power.
While the DNC could’ve had an impact and delivered a meaningful message, they could not escape the man who has lived in Democrats’ minds for the last nine years: Donald Trump. While attacks were expected from each party, the DNC made it their focus. In every speech at the convention, mentions of Jan. 6, Trump's radicalism and Project 2025 came into play. There were no speakers who introduced new ideas or tried to give logical reasons as to why Democrats should stay in power. This DNC was also the first national look at vice presidential pick Tim Walz. Walz is the definition of a weirdo, being described as a politician for “low testosterone men,” putting tampons in boys bathrooms and lying about his military service. Walz has now replaced Biden as the unserious and uninspiring grandpa of the Democratic party.
My predictions for the 2024 election will be a Harris-Walz White House winning 303 to 235. The hope for Republicans is flipping the Senate and keeping the House by flipping Montana and maintaining their slim House majority. With Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell leaving Senate leadership, Republicans have an opportunity to put in a stronger Senate majority leader that can push their new ideology forward and control Congress for the next two years.
Lucas Sprung is a UF political science and international relations junior.
