Florida is a busy state this election cycle. Our state has many decisions to make with presidential front-runner Donald Trump being a Florida resident and all eyes on ballot initiatives. But one race that has flown under the national radar could be the most important of all. The U.S. Senate race between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott and former Congresswoman Debbie Murcasel-Powell is not just another race. It’s a battle that could shape the future of Florida politics. Multiple polls show this race to be extremely close, but I believe that this race will be a blowout with Scott coming out victorious.
The most important part of any election is the name I.D. of each candidate. This is crucial to winning any election, especially at the state-wide level. With Scott being an incumbent and former governor for eight years, there's not a Floridian who doesn't know who Scott is. What could hurt Scott is the policy Florida Republicans have championed for the last four years. Bringing new residents to Florida from blue states. These new residents barely know Scott or his work in politics. For many Floridians, Scott resembles a change in Florida politics, from being an outsider in politics to running and dominating in office. Scott was like Trump before Trump entered politics. This style of politician has helped reform the Republican party over the years; it’s what made Trump win in 2016, and this style will help Scott win another election in 2024.
His challenger, Murcasel-Powell, is a disastrous recruit for Democrats — a one-term congresswoman who lost her seat to a Republican in re-election. While Florida Democrats are used to losing, this pick is almost too easy to call a loss. While in Congress, her only sponsored bill passed was a renaming of a post office and a failed attempt at giving aid to Venezuela. While it’s a strange pick from Democrats to have a no-name congresswoman take the lead against the face of Florida Republicans, the strategy has surprisingly worked. Murcasel-Powell is polling close to 2 points behind Scott in most polls. While impressive for her, it’s unrealistic and not going to happen.
While the polls of elections can be exciting and exploring hypotheticals is always fun, assumptions are bad politics. Looking at the previous 2022 Florida Senate election between Sen. Marco Rubio and challenger Val Demings, Rubio won by 16.4% of the vote. A similar challenge arises for this election as well. Despite being a presidential election, there is no realistic way Trump will lose Florida; this likely predicts a Scott win as well.
Even though the polls seem close, Republicans in Florida have just hit a one million voter differential against Democrats. The work done by Republicans in Florida has created a challenge for Democrats: The challenge of letting go of a state like Florida that was once a stronghold for them. Due to Scott, Florida Democrats have become a laughing stock on the national scale. The state is no longer competitive for Democrats due to effective and proven conservative policy. Scott’s work in Florida changed the national scale for presidential elections. It puts a target on his back for Democrats by being one of the few true Republicans that stay true to their values.
Scott's campaign strategy has been to discredit Murcasel-Powell, and so far, it has been extremely effective. Scott has even beaten Murcasel-Powell in her own demographic by being able to pick up multiple endorsements from multiple Latin American leadership organizations as well. He launched his run for senate leader when Republicans were likely to win the majority. This is a massive sign of power and confidence that he will win. It's a move of putting all chips on the table for his political career, and by the looks of it, it's an easy bet against Murcasel-Powell.
Murcasel-Powell's career is filled with mediocrity. This will be the most national news she has ever made in her life, besides her controversy of taking $700,000 from a Ukrainian oligarch or taking PAC money from a pedophile in her previous campaigns. For Democrats, the hype behind Murcasel-Powell is artificial; it’s become a trend for Democrats this election cycle. It feels very similar to presidential candidate Kamala Harris, where the candidate would not be in the position in any other election cycle but assumed it in a very artificial and almost planned way.
For fundraising this campaign, Democrats are more nervous than ever. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer knows Scott will be a much tougher Republican leader than the current and retiring Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Senate Democrats see this race as a possibility to maintain a strong influence in their likely minority in the Senate after this election if they can keep Scott from winning. However, the truth is, no amount of Democrat money can stop Scott from winning. Ultimately, Floridians know the right decision. Voters know politicians like Scott are the reason Florida has become one of the most successful states in the country.
While this election may not be the most prominent on the national scale, it holds immense importance for the future of the U.S. Senate and the destiny of Florida politics. The outcome of the Florida Senate race could significantly shape the political landscape, making it a crucial event to watch and a potential game-changer for the future of Florida politics.
Lucas Sprung is a UF political science and international relations junior.
