I tuned into the first Presidential debate of the election season with alcohol in hand. My friends sat around the couch, watching the live political spectacle alongside 51 million other viewers. Drinks ran dry as both candidates made gaffe after gaffe. While former President Trump lied about abortion “even after birth” and denounced Biden as a “bad Palestinian,” our current President’s age became painfully visible as he struggled to form coherent answers to Trump’s rhetoric. Even when silent, Biden unnervingly stared off into space, looking visibly confused.
In prior cycles, Trump campaigns suffered from poor debate performances. In 2016, his first debate with Hillary Clinton increased his unfavorability rating among voters. The first Presidential debate of 2020 led to a surge of support for Biden. Against the Biden of 2024, however, Trump presented a seemingly stable alternative against a confused and senile man.
In short, the debate was a disaster for Biden. According to an Ipsos/538 poll, 60.1% of likely voters believed former President Trump performed best in the debate. The Biden campaign has gone into full damage control mode as Democratic insiders panic about his less-than-stellar debate performance. At first White House officials stated that the President had a cold. Yet as more among the pundit class call for Biden to leave the race, the campaign has gotten more aggressive, calling its critics the “bedwetting brigade” in a fundraising email.
The childishness of the Biden campaign in response to reasonable concerns about the President’s age reflects a failure to engage with his deep unpopularity. According to a post-debate CBS/You Gov poll, 72% of registered voters do not believe Biden has the mental and cognitive health to serve as President, up from 65% in early June. Biden’s problem with age is not an issue that will get better with time.
Biden’s unique unpopularity comes into focus when comparing him to another floundering entity: the Florida Democratic Party. After being massacred in the 2022 midterms and ushering a new era of blood-red Republican Florida, the state Democratic Party has shown some signs of revival. Winning the Jacksonville mayor’s race and flipping House District 35 in a special election earlier this year, the Florida Democrats’ bleeding may be stemmed this year with abortion and marijuana legalization on the ballot.
The 2024 race for the Florida Senate seat has also gotten surprisingly closer as the likely Democratic candidate, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, has made dramatic gains in the polls. Last April, she trailed Republican incumbent Rick Scott by double digits according to an FAU/Mainstreet Research poll. By June, the same pollster showed her behind Scott in the low single digits. In contrast, Biden has been consistently polling behind Trump in Florida by roughly ten points for months according to 538 polling averages.
The President underperforming Democratic Senate candidates is not a phenomenon unique to Florida. In a number of swing states – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona – Democratic Senate candidates run ahead of Biden. This trend in Florida and battleground states shows that liberal policies have not suddenly become unpalatable to the average voter; Biden is the problem.
At 81 years old, Joe Biden is older than former Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. He has been involved in politics since the Nixon administration. He is the oldest candidate of a major party to ever run for President in the history of the United States. Rather than engaging with voters’ concern about his age, the Biden campaign has become increasingly insular. Since the beginning of his presidency, aides have shielded Biden from those inside and outside the White House. According to a recent report by Axios, those close to Biden are afraid to raise concerns in fear of being viewed as disloyal. The result of such narrow-mindedness came to fruition at the debate: an incoherent and struggling Biden exposed to a live audience of 51 million people.
In 2024, Biden is an electoral liability. Rejecting the reality that millions of voters saw on the debate stage is a losing strategy. If the Biden campaign genuinely believes this upcoming election is a referendum on democracy, he should drop out of the race to make room for a non-octogenarian candidate.
Rey Arcenas is a UF history and women’s studies senior.
