The Florida Gators travel to Baton Rouge, Louisiana, to take on the rival No. 18 Louisana State Tigers Saturday.
The Gators (5-4, 3-3 SEC) and Tigers (6-3, 4-2 SEC) both lost their previous matchups and are looking to get back on track with a victory Saturday. UF lost an overtime heartbreaker at home to Arkansas, while LSU fell on the road to bitter rivals Alabama.
I sat down with Peter Rauterkus, the sports editor of the Reveille, the student newspaper at LSU, to break down the matchup.
Can you talk about LSU’s strengths and weaknesses as a team?
Rauterkus: “With this LSU team, I don't know that I've seen a team whose strengths and weaknesses are more glaring, you've got, I haven't checked the rankings after the Alabama game. But at least coming into that game, the number one ranked offense both in scoring and in yardage in the country. Best, at least in my opinion, best quarterback in the country, at the very least one of the best, you know, two or three quarterbacks in the country. But then on the other side, you've got an awful defense. I mean, you've got a defense that ranks near the bottom, both in the SEC and in the country, in pretty much every statistical category, from points to passing yards to rushing yards. Defensive line gets very little pressure on the quarterback don’t force a lot of turnovers. So, you know, it's very similar to the LSU team in 2020. I would say a little bit better overall, since this team does is at least still 6-3, but and this team has a much better offense than that team, but yeah, great, great offense, bad defense.”
How was the season gone for LSU this year?
Rauterkus: “Iit shows up when LSU has had to play elite teams, you know, it's funny, look at the schedule, you see 6-3, you think ‘Oh, that’s bad for LSU.’ But the same time to you know, the losses are all to top 10 teams on the road, technically, Florida State was in Orlando, but you know, more or less a road game, you know, got undefeated top five Florida State, you've got Alabama on the road, you've got a game against Ole Miss, which that one you really should have won, but that's also a top 10 team on the road. So they’ve beaten the teams they're supposed to beat and the games that are sort of 50/50s, they just don't have the defense to get him over over the edge. And Brian Kelly, one of his best quotes from the press conference, both after the Alabama game, and on Monday was you know, ‘we’re good right now but we’re not elite’ and to win on the road against teams like Alabama you have to be elite, and they’re elite on one side of the ball, but below average on the other.”
What have you seen from LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels this season?
Rauterkus: “He's been everything for LSU, you know, probably cemented himself as the second-best quarterback in LSU history. He's thrown for almost 30 touchdowns, and almost 3,000 yards. He also leads the team in rushing yards with just over 600. He ran for 163 yards in just 11 carries against Alabama. He's elite, both as a runner and as a passer. He's developed just so much from last season, especially in the deep passing game. He's so dynamic now. He can stretch the field. He can work the quick game. He can run and hurt teams with his legs. He can just do everything and this offense that has been so elite runs through him.”
With Jayden Daniels’ status still day-to-day after the concussion, what does his backup, Garrett Nussmeier, bring to the table if he plays?
Rauterkus: “Yeah, so Garrett Nussmeier, you know, kind of had an interesting story, interesting time at LSU. He came in, in the 2021 season as a freshman and backed up Max Johnson. There were calls throughout that season for Nussmeier to get playing time when there were struggles to Max Johnson. Nussmeier never started a game, but I think it was against Arkansas. Max played the first series, and then Nussmeier came and played the rest of the game. That's the closest he's had to a start in his LSU career, and played okay in that game, you know, was a true freshman. But didn't really show anything crazy. Last year was a backup for most of the year and saw some playing time in blowouts. The most notable playing time he saw was in the SEC championship game where Jayden Daniels left the game early with injury. And he had for a second he looked like he might be about to bring LSU back. He had a few huge plays. But then we also saw later in the game, he threw two interceptions. That's kind of Nussmeier’s thing. He has really good arm talent, you know, and likes to throw the deep ball. He's a gunslinger, you know, he likes to throw the ball around, but he'll also make some questionable decisions, some questionable throws, every now and then, I mean, I want to say, take it with a grain of salt, given the situation he's been thrown into. But I think his career completion percentage at LSU is in the 50s. I want to say he was 5-for-10 in the time that he played against Alabama, which, you know, really the game was not out of reach yet when he came in, I mean, they were down by 14, but they had a chance to, they're driving late in the game, to at least cut the lead to seven. And if Malik Nabers doesn’t drop a pass near the sideline, LSU scores, you know, all it would have taken was one stop or one mistake for Alabama for it to be a different game. So Nussmeier’s a capable quarterback. I think there's a lot of teams that wish they had a guy of Nussmeier’s capabilities to start, so I think having him as a backup is a luxury. But I think it goes without saying that he's definitely no Jayden Daniels. The biggest thing is he doesn't give you near as much with legs as what Jayden Daniels would give you.”
Who are some players on the defensive side of the ball who could make an impact?
Rauterkus: “The one standout is Harold Perkins. He's definitely the most talented player on that defense. There's been a lot of talk throughout the season of about whether or not LSU is using him correctly. ‘How should he be used?’ They've got to kind of playing in the nickel/SAME role where he kind of gets to do a little bit of everything. One of the big things that people have said, that's kind of been one of the biggest debates is ‘Oh, he shouldn't be playing in coverage as much as he should be rushing the quarterback.’ But he's also been LSU’s highest-graded linebacker in coverage as well. So it's like, he can kind of do everything. And he's been so good in coverage that you need him to kind of play that role. But you also might be losing your best pass rusher when you take him off the edge. So it's kind of like what do you do in that situation? Outside of him, what really hurts you going into the Alabama game, you lost Mekhi Wingo and Zy Alexander. Wingo, All-American, and All-SEC, was your best defensive lineman. Zy Alexander, in what had been a really struggling and beaten up secondary, was your best corner. And he's out indefinitely. Wingo is also out, at least for the rest of the regular season, but might be able to return for a bowl game. Currently no timetable on Alexander's return. But yeah, I mean, just the overall struggles. It's really been at all three levels, you know, the biggest concerns are with the secondary, but then you saw Alabama run all over LSU, especially in the in the quarterback run game. Jalen Milroe ran for 155 yards in that game. They just couldn't contain them. You've got some young DBs who I think are alright, but it's not DBU. It's far from what you've seen in the past with LSU. So the struggles really come at all three levels, but you know, Harold Perkins is still a guy who can change the game, and it's gonna come down to how he's able to be utilized.”
Besides Jayden Daniels, the Tigers also have one of the best receivers in the nation in Malik Nabers. Can you talk about him and some other guys on the offense who can impact the game?
Rauterkus: “Nabers has been amazing this season. He's got over 1,000 yard already. I want to say leads the country still in receiving yards. Just his and Jayden’s chemistry has just been one of the things I've been most impressed with this season. You can tell how much work they put in together during the offseason. What makes him so good is he's so versatile. You can line him up everywhere. He can be a deep threat, but he can also be a guy that you go to in the quick passing game, you know, somebody could just make that five-yard out and get the catch you need on third down. He's got strong hands. You can put him in the slot, you can put him on the boundary, and kind of do whatever you need him to. But then next to Nabers, you got Brian Thomas Jr., who's also been a really really good receiver for LSU. For a while, I'm not sure if he still is, was leading the country in touchdowns. Kind of a different build to Malik. Malik is more the smaller, I think six feet and around 200 pounds. Brian Thomas is kind of your typical long red zone threat, you know, about 6-foot-3-inches tall and he's been the red zone threat. I mean, that's where he's been the most effective this season on jump balls and on those fades going into the endzone, but also, deceptively quick and really good in the open field. Then Logan Diggs at running back has really opened up the offense a lot this year didn't have a huge game against Alabama, but having him and Jayden Daniels kind of running that read option. Then LSU kind of has what you know, I kind of call the triple option package where they run that play with Mason Taylor, the tight end, where you've got the zone read and then into the the dump off to Mason Taylor, which was the play that beat Alabama last year. So you've just got weapons all over the field on this LSU offense. You know, obviously, Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers, those are the two main weapons, but Brian Thomas and Logan Diggs have, in different games this year, also taken over games at times.”
What do you see as the deciding factor in this game if you had to boil it down to one thing?
Rauterkus: “It's what I’ve said about a lot of LSU games, and I said this about the Alabama game last week, and I think, especially at halftime of the game, when it was close, it's going to come down to who can force a turnover. It's ‘can LSU as defense just be okay?’ With how good this offense is, they don’t have to be great. You don't even have to be good. But you just have to get one or two stops a quarter. It prevents the LSU offense from having to be perfect because while this offense is really good, it becomes tougher when there's an unrealistic amount of pressure on you every drive. And we saw that kind of eventually show itself in the Alabama game last week where you saw the interception to start the fourth quarter. And that was that one play. That was the one turnover that kind of changed the tune of the game. Alabama, also though, had a really good defense. I worry about Florida's defense a little bit, especially, you know, coming off last weekend, but then also if you want to look at last weekend, one thing I'm interested to see with both of these teams is who responds better to what was both ways kind of a gut-wrenching loss. You know, you had LSU-Alabama, where you go into it's the biggest game of your year, it's an emotional high. And then you lose, and now kind of everything's off the table, you're not really playing for an SEC championship spot or anything like that anymore. And then Florida, who was kind of looking to get right after the Georgia game playing against an Arkansas team who was struggling, then they end up losing. How does Florida respond to that? So I think even more than X's and O's wise just how both teams respond mentally is kind of what I'm looking forward to seeing most, especially early in the game. Who gets off to a fast start?”
Where do you see LSU having the biggest advantage against Florida and what are some potential weaknesses?
Rauterkus: “Yeah, I worry. I’ll talk about disadvantages first. I worry about Florida's running backs. LSU has been bad. I mean, like I said, they’ve been bad all over defensively. But they've been bad stopping the run this year. And we saw that, especially against Alabama, we saw that against Missouri. I mean, Cody Schrader ran for over 100 yards on just like nine or 10 carries. This defensive line hasn't really had a real defensive line coach all season. You know, they've battled some injuries, and I think that would play to Florida's advantage, where if you can run the ball, and you can control the clock against this LSU offense, keep them off the field, you know, keep the crowd out of the game too. Just controlling the game. That's where I think this game could start to shift into Florida's favor. That's kind of my biggest worry with that Florida team. But at the end of the day, advantages for LSU. I mean, I think it's just always LSU’s offense, versus really, whoever at this point. I think LSU’s passing game matches up well, against Florida’s secondary. I think that's where they're really gonna try to exploit. And they've done that against everybody they've played so far. But I think for Florida, the key is just going to be to keeping LSU’s offense off the field. And if they can do that, it's I think it can get interesting. If they can do that, and they can keep this game into even just the 30s, then I think it ends up being pretty close. Looking at what Arkansas, obviously Arkansas didn’t beat LSU. But they had a lot of long drives, they ran the ball, well, consistently, just moved the ball and LSU didn't get a lot of drives, and LSU had some mistakes early. That's what had LSU playing from behind in the first half, and they needed that big second half to finally go there and never really pulled away. I mean, it still took a game-winning field goal for LSU to win at home. So those are kind of the matchups that I'm looking at most in this game.”
Finally, how do you see this game playing out, and can you give me a final score prediction?
Rauterkus: “Yeah, so for one, it is still a little bit tough as of right now with Jayden Daniels’ status up in the year, but I guess I'll make this prediction assuming that he will play. If he is playing and LSU’s offense is doing what it does. I think they're able to get enough stops against this Florida offense, given what I think LSU can exploit against Florida’s defense. I think it’ll be high scoring just like every LSU game is, but I think it can go either one of two ways, looking at LSU’s previous games. It can go the way the Arkansas game did, like I mentioned where Arkansas did a good job, you know, putting together drives keeping LSU off the field, forcing one or two mistakes in the game. Or it’ll be like against Auburn where they tried to throw the ball more, forced it a little bit on offense, you know, couldn't really get anything going consistently. And LSU was able to pull away pretty early because of that. I think Florida's offense is a little more capable than Auburn's to where even if they have to throw the ball, I think they're in a little bit better shape. So I think it'll be close for a while, but I think just with LSU’s offense, they'll pull away. You know, I don't think Florida will be able to keep up as the game kind of wears on. So I would say for my score prediction, I think LSU 45, Florida 35. That was the score of last year's game, but yeah, I think I'm gonna go to a repeat of last year's game: LSU 45, Florida 35.”
LSU: 45
Florida: 35
Contact Jackson Reyes at jacksonreyes@alligator.org Follow him on Twitter @JacksnReyes. Follow Peter Rauterkus on Twitter @peter_rauterkus.
Jackson Reyes is a UF journalism senior and The Alligator's Fall 2023 Sports Editor. He previously served as Digital Managing Editor and was a reporter and assistant editor on the sports desk. In his free time, he enjoys collecting records, long walks on the beach and watching Bo Nix.
