The 2021 Georgia Bulldogs defense will likely go down as one of the best of all time.
Georgia had five first round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, including first overall pick Travon Walker. A total of eight defenders were selected.
The Bulldogs allowed just 8.8 offensive points per game, which ranks third all-time in points per game allowed. They held Michigan and Alabama to a total of 29 combined points in the College Football Playoff and didn’t allow more than 20 points in the regular season.
This defense more than earned its place in history.
But what if it had played one of the best Florida offenses ever seen?
Often forgotten due to a thrown shoe, the 2020 Gators offensive attack featured future first-round draft picks Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney alongside NFL players Kyle Trask, Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis. Florida averaged nearly 40 points, 510 total yards and more than 375 passing yards per game. Trask threw for nearly 4,300 yards and 43 touchdowns with just eight interceptions.
Pitts became the first tight end to ever be a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award — given each year to the nation’s top receiver. He was the first Gator to receive unanimous first-team All-American honors since cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III in 2015. Pitts’ 12 touchdowns were the second-most in SEC history.
He played in just eight games.
Toney actually led the team with 984 receiving yards and added 161 yards more on the ground. Wide receiver Trevon Grimes scored nine touchdowns and had almost 600 yards.
The Florida passing attack toasted the 2020 Georgia defense to the tune of 44 points.
The 2021 Florida squad featured a whole new cast of characters, losing Pitts, Toney, Grimes and Trask to the NFL. As a result, it mustered just eight points in a blowout loss to the Bulldogs.
The 2020 Georgia defense was nothing to scoff at either, allowing 20 points and 321 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play. All three figures ranked second in the Southeastern Conference.
Let’s run the numbers to predict what would’ve happened if the 2020 Gators and the 2021 Bulldogs clashed in reality.
Through the air
The closest team Georgia played with Florida’s level of offensive talent was Alabama, who it played twice: once in the SEC Championship and once in the College Football Playoff Final.
Alabama quarterback Bryce Young had a slightly better statistical season in 2020 than Trask, throwing for 4,872 yards, 47 touchdowns and seven interceptions. In the SEC Championship against Georgia, Young completed 59% of his passes for 421 yards, three touchdowns and an interception.
As previously alluded to, Trask had his way with the 2020 Georgia defense, tossing for 474 yards, four touchdowns and an interception — 53 more yards and one more touchdown than Young. The Crimson Tide quarterback struggled the second time he played the Bulldogs last season, though, tossing two interceptions, one touchdown and 369 yards.
If Young’s numbers across both games are averaged, he threw for an average of 395 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions (rounding up 1.5). Trask’s totals can be added to this statline, given the similarities the two quarterbacks had statistically year over year. Add in Trask’s 2020 figures against Georgia, that average is 435 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions (again, rounding 1.5 up).
The argument can be made that Trask had better weapons to throw to than Young did last season, so his figures could be stronger. The talent gap between the Georgia defense in 2020 versus 2021 accounts for the offensive talent gap between Jameson Williams and John Metchie versus Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney. Not to mention, the Gators only had Pitts for less than a half in 2020 against the Bulldogs, as he left the game with a concussion.
So, by these metrics, Florida would’ve been able to move the ball through the air against Georgia.
What about the ground game?
The Gators weren’t exactly a run-first offense in 2020 — lead horse Dameon Pierce had 503 yards on the ground over 12 games, while Malik Davis had 310. However, Davis was effective in the pass game, hauling in 31 receptions for 377 yards.
The Bulldogs run defense, meanwhile, was already strong in 2020, allowing 2.4 yards per attempt and 72.3 yards per game. In 2021, Georgia was just a tad weaker, but not by much: 2.6 yards per attempt and 78.9 yards per game. Possibly the best front seven of all time featured Walker, Jordan Davis, Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt, Channing Tindall, Nakobe Dean and Jalen Carter. No one was running on that squad.
Considering the strength of Georgia’s rushing defense in 2020, it’s reasonable to use Pierce’s numbers from the 2020 game as a decent indicator. He had 15 carries for 52 yards and a touchdown in Jacksonville that season.
However, Georgia only allowed three rushing touchdowns all season in 2021, so for this projection, take away Pierce’s touchdown. Davis added 21 yards on nine carries and Nay’Quan Wright added 15, so in total the Florida running backs totaled 88 yards on the ground.
Factoring in the stinginess UGA had against a better Alabama rushing attack in the 2021 National Championship — Brian Robinson Jr. went for more than 1,300 yards on the year and had just 68 against Georgia — it’s reasonable to assume Florida would’ve had even less success in this hypothetical.
As a result, pencil in Florida for 75 rushing yards and no touchdowns as opposed to 97 yards (including QB scrambles) and a touchdown.
Overall totals:
Four hundred and thirty-five passing yards, 75 rushing yards, two turnovers and three touchdowns.
When the 2021 Georgia offense had the ball versus the 2020 Florida defense, it would’ve swung heavily in favor of the Bulldogs. Georgia averaged 38.60 points per game, while Florida allowed 30.83 points per game. The meter leans toward UGA, and it would more than likely hit the season’s 38-point average.
Unfortunately, not everything is predictable, such as how Georgia would guard Pitts, the rivalry itself or Stetson Bennett's performance.
Conclusion
Judging by the makeshift algorithm used to predict Florida’s offensive production, it’s reasonable to assume kicker Evan McPherson would’ve put some points on the board. In 2020, he made three field goals. In this fictional matchup, UF will stall in the red zone a few times based on Trask’s yards versus the touchdowns scored. The current Bengals kicker will knock through three in this game as well.
Thus, it can be concluded that the 2021 Georgia Bulldogs would’ve beat the 2020 Florida Gators 38-30.
A one possession game. The 2020 Florida offense would’ve given the 2021 Georgia defense all it could handle, but the Bulldogs would still come out on top due to critical interceptions and a stingy run defense.
Contact Michael Hull at mhull@alligator.org. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Hull33.
Michael Hull is a fourth-year journalism sports & media major and a sports writer at The Alligator. He hosts the weekly sports podcast and has worked on staff for five semesters. In the past, Hull has served as the sports editor, the men's and women's golf beat writer, the volleyball beat writer and the football beat writer.
