With a truncated out-of-conference schedule, conferences and teams opting out of competition and COVID-induced cancellations, NCAA tourney predictions are a trickier science.
As Florida bears down on the last six weeks of its schedule, the Gators are squarely in the tournament by every metric. UF ranks 25 in the NET rankings — the NCAA’s preferred metric — while also ranking 23 in KenPom and 27 in T-Rank.
UF has 10 games remaining before the SEC Tournament kicks off in Nashville March 10, so it’s worth noting the Gators’ current resume, red flags and important matchups going forward.
The quadrant system has become important in measuring a team’s tournament chances, wherein wins and losses are placed into one of four categories based on location and quality of opportunities. The calculation method for each quadrant can be found here.
Quadrant 1: 1-2
Quadrant 2: 4-1
Quadrant 3: 2-1
Quadrant 4: 2-0
Key Victories: (9) Tennessee
Bad Losses: (80) Kentucky
The standout win on Florida’s resume is its 75-49 schellacking of Tennessee, a Volunteer team that will certainly remain within the parameters of a Quad 1 win. UF has a lack of elite victories, however, as Florida has the fewest Quad 1 victories of any Power Five team ranked inside the top 40.
UF’s 5-3 record in the top-two quadrants is quite good, and it’s one bad loss against Kentucky is likely overstated. The Wildcats beat the Gators quite convincingly back in January, but their 3-0 conference start was a false dawn as Kentucky lost its next three games. KenPom and T-Rank are much more charitable to 5-11 Kentucky, ranking the Wildcats 54 and 64 respectively.
Gator Nation will have to root for Kentucky through gritted teeth this year as a strong finish from coach Calipari’s side will wipe UF’s slate clean of a Quad 3 loss.
Most current projections agree on Florida’s placement as either a 6-7 seed, a noted improvement off the 10 seed the Gators earned in 2019. UF’s No. 23 ranking in the NET rankings suggest it would be the third-best six seed, while T-Rank’s average tournament simulation saw Florida as a 6.8 seed.
Bracketology deity Joe Lunardi has tabbed Florida for the 7 seed against Drake in Indianapolis, if any eager Gator fans want to make travel plans to the Hoosier state.
CBS analyst Jerry Palm has the Gators as an eight seed against Rutgers. FOX Sports writer Mike DeCourcy gave the most unfavorable forecast, putting ninth-seeded Florida against Virginia Tech.
There’s more than enough time for a late-season collapse to sink the Gators’ tourney chances, so here are three games that are particularly important for UF to secure a fourth-straight bid.
Jan. 30 @ West Virginia
Putting the Mountaineers on upset alert is a bit of a bold pick, especially with 25% capacity still allowed into WVU Coliseum, but a second Quad 1 win would provide a huge boost to the Gators’ resume and UF matches up well with WVU.
Opponent height has been the biggest variable Florida’s success this year, and West Virginia ranks just 121st in that metric. Florida center Colin Castleton should be able to handle 6 feet, 10 inch, WVU big man Derek Culver, and West Virginia’s two power forwards stand at just 6 feet, 7 inches.
Feb. 6 @ LSU
The Gators were pretty convincing last time out against the Tigers, holding a 10 point lead late-on before a final LSU spurt closed the gap to four. LSU doesn’t have a bonafide center, and with the emergence of sophomore Omar Payne, Florida should have a field day in the paint. This may be Florida’s best opportunity for a Quad 1 victory.
Feb. 23 vs. Georgia
After the Georgia game, coach Mike White said the only thing separating the two teams was a strong start to the second half from Florida. Rivalry games are never cut and dry, and a Quad 3 loss to the Bulldogs would be an unwanted blemish just three weeks from Selection Sunday.
Contact Declan Walsh at dwalsh@alligator.org and follow him on Twitter @declanaw
