The 2020 SEC college football season is scheduled to kick off on Sept. 26, 271 days since the Gators’ victory over Virginia in the Orange Bowl last season. Football writers Brendan Farrell, River Wells and Payton Titus are here to tell you what you need to know about this year’s team and how COVID-19 has affected the season.
Payton: In short, everything.
Everything is different this year. As of now, two of the Power 5 conferences have opted to postpone their football seasons, and 54 of the 130 FBS teams will not be playing this fall because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This has left the Gators with a 10-game conference-only schedule.
Although Florida has yet to make any official announcements regarding home-game fan capacity, nine of the 14 SEC schools have all decided on 20 to 25 percent of their stadiums’ full capacity. Assuming Florida follows suit, and even if they don’t, its preseason No. 8 ranking will surely be tested without 2019 Homecoming-esque crowds to frazzle visiting quarterbacks.
That, masks on the sidelines and the mental toll that will be taken on these athletes by three COVID-19 tests per week and social distancing from all the temptations college presents make everything about this year different.
Brendan: What Payton said. With the omission of the Big Ten and Pac-12 and notable players opting out, it doesn’t feel like college football season is right around the corner.
And if we do somehow get a full season this fall, a lot of what makes college football special will be different or missing entirely. It’s going to be weird not seeing The Swamp packed with fans, energetic tailgates and the environment of “College Gameday” every Saturday.
But on the plus side, there’s now a 10-game conference schedule, which could turn out to be one of the best moves the SEC has made in a while, as long as you’re not an Arkansas or Missouri fan. Fans and analysts alike have begged for an extended conference schedule, so it should be interesting to see how this turns out. The only cupcake games this year in the SEC will be against Arkansas and Vanderbilt.
River: As Brendan pointed out, one of the biggest impacts of COVID-19 is the motion to only play in-conference games. While it’s very unfortunate that it had to happen because of these circumstances, the prospect is something I’ve been wanting for a very long time.
It makes things less certain. No longer are 2-3 wins on a schedule essentially gifted to these teams: They’ll have to play programs that can hang for all 10 games this season, and in a format where a single loss can mean the demise of playoff hopes, it should serve to make the college football season far more interesting.
The lack of two Power 5 conferences makes things a bit confusing, though, especially if those two conferences try to play football in the spring. I don’t expect all of this to go as planned, but if it does, get ready for some of the most competitive college football we’ve seen in years.`
River: Expectations are often different from reality.
If the season finishes—and that’s an “if” that’s getting bigger every day—the Gators will be expected to make it to the SEC Championship, due to strong roster retention and its seemingly weaker competition in Georgia and LSU.
But as the Mad Titan Thanos once said: Reality is often disappointing.
Coach Dan Mullen still hasn’t proven he can beat Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs, and even with what many consider to be a weaker roster, it will still be the biggest game on the schedule. The game typically decides who wins the SEC East, and Mullen has yet to win it.
And then there’s big bad LSU. With the departure of Joe Burrow and almost the entire offensive line, things may seem bleak in Baton Rouge. But with the return of star wideout Ja’Marr Chase and the addition of graduate transfer Jabril Cox, head coach Ed Oregeron won’t be planning to hoist the white flag against Florida anytime soon.
My expectations? The Gators lose to Georgia (again), make it to whatever a New Years Six Bowl will look like, and win it. UF is on the up, but in a year with a rollercoaster of extremes, things should look very similar for Florida.
Brendan: Mullen has established what the minimum expectation is in his first two seasons: Make (and win) a New Year’s Six bowl. To win 21 games in two seasons with the team he inherited from Jim McElwain is remarkable, but that means there are no excuses for taking a step backward in year three.
With a pretty light schedule—the Gators only play three opponents in the preseason Coaches Poll—it does look like the stars have aligned for Florida to potentially make a run for both the division and the conference. The biggest hurdle for UF is still Smart and the Bulldogs in Jacksonville. That game will likely decide Florida’s fate, and it’s about time the Gators re-establish dominance in Duval.
Payton: My honest expectations for this season are that it either doesn’t happen at all or, if we by some miracle or sheer incompetence on behalf of conference leadership and medical advisors, make it to Week 1, the season will be canceled or postponed two weeks later—tops.
If schools like Notre Dame and UNC can’t get through two weeks before sending students (that pay tens of thousands of dollars per year in tuition) home to take their classes online, how will they be able to justify keeping student athletes on campus without distinguishing them as essential workers as opposed to amateurs? How will they be able to justify permitting fans inside of the stadium to watch their football team play when students aren’t allowed to walk around campus?
I see no way around it and feel that Greg Sankey and the other conference commissioners are simply prolonging the inevitable.
But, should the season go on, I agree with River and Brendan. Another New Year’s Six Bowl win and maybe even the title of SEC East champions seem to be in the cards for Florida.
River: First, look to the defense. Defensive lineman Gervon Dexter is the one to watch, as he’s one of the Gators’ biggest recruits in recent memory. The five-star out of Lake Wales, Florida, had 17 sacks in 13 games with 35 tackles for loss in his senior year of high school and should plug into UF’s defensive line without a problem. Linebacker Derek Wingo is another defensive newcomer who should make his presence known on defense. Florida has a bit of a crowded linebacker corps, but Wingo should find a place for himself among the group with his notable athleticism.
On the offensive side, the Gators have tried to mend a gaping hole at WR with four-star Miami recruit Xzavier Henderson. It’s hard to tell where exactly Henderson will fit in—Trevon Grimes and Jacob Copeland will return, and receivers like Rick Wells will be looking for a shot—but any new weapon for Kyle Trask will be imperative if UF plans to finally reach the SEC Championship during Mullen’s tenure.
Brendan: For me, it’s the three former five-star transfers Mullen has brought in: linebacker Brenton Cox, running back Lorenzo Lingard and wide receiver Justin Shorter.
Mullen raved about Cox during fall practice, and the Gators do lack five-star talent. The fact that Cox transferred from Georgia will only make the game in Jacksonville more interesting and a victory even sweeter for Florida. Cox can play all over the field and has the potential to be a real gamebreaker for defensive coordinator Todd Grantham.
Lingard, whose waiver for immediate eligibility was approved, arrives in Gainesville after a couple years in Coral Gables. He’ll compete for carries with junior Dameon Pierce and also help replace Lamical Perine. Considering how bad Florida’s run game was last season, an infusion of talent will only help.
Lastly, Shorter’s status is still up in the air, but he would be a much-needed addition to the Gators’ wide receiver corps. Shorter caught just 15 passes for 157 yards at Penn State, but at 6-foot-4, he gives quarterback Kyle Trask another big target to throw to.
Payton: Kyle Trask is the kind of quarterback that likes to drop back into the pocket, so a solid offensive line is a must. Freshman Joshua Braun is a new face to keep an eye on in that respect.
The 6-foot-6, 356-pound offensive lineman was supposed to be the newest addition to Georgia’s Great Wall of Athens but flipped last year after UGA’s offensive line coach Sam Pittman took the Arkansas head coaching job. His size and agility, as seen on the tennis court at the Class 2A state quarterfinals match, should provide some much needed relief for the returning quarterback Trask, who will likely be hard pressed for targets this season.
Speaking of targets, incoming freshman Xzavier Henderson could be of assistance. Until Jacob Copeland and Kadarius Toney say otherwise, assuming neither athlete decides to play for the Gators this season, Trask is looking at very few receivers to choose from. To Dan Mullen’s vocal displeasure, transfers Jordan Pouncey and Justin Shorter have yet to receive confirmation of their eligibility this season. If the four-star recruit can manage to fill the holes left by the four Florida seniors drafted this offseason, the Gators will be looking at a solid receiving core this year.
Brendan: It all starts and ends with who’s under center. The Gators’ biggest advantage is that they’re one of only a handful of SEC teams who is returning their starting quarterback from last season. With Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa now in the NFL, the door is wide open for Kyle Trask to become the best signal caller in the SEC.
Out of returning SEC quarterbacks, Trask led the conference in completion percentage, passing touchdowns, passer rating and QBR. He’s also been listed on several preseason award watchlists, thrusting him into the national spotlight this season. Not bad for a three-star prospect who hadn’t started a game since his freshman year of high school.
Combine Trask with backup dual-threat quarterback Emory Jones, and the Gators should feel very comfortable about the most valuable position on the field.
Payton: This year, the SEC will move forward without star quarterbacks Joe Burrow (LSU), Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) and Jake Fromm (Georgia).
Of the conference’s 14 teams, only seven of them—including the Gators—will have returning quarterbacks this season.
Kyle Trask leads this small crop of veterans with 2,914 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. He and head coach Dan Mullen look to lead the Gators to the SEC championship game this season. Between his stat line, almost a full year of experience as a starter and the help of running quarterback Emory Jones, they might be able to do just that.
River: Few schools can claim the ever-contentious mantle of “DBU” and still be taken seriously. You’d better believe Florida is one of them.
C.J Henderson may have departed in hopes to make some better memories at TIAA Bank Field in the NFL, but his absence is far from a death knell for UF’s secondary. Marco Wilson and Kaiir Elam return to the fold, the former of which will serve as the veteran presence for the secondary. Trey Dean III will look to find a role that suits him in the secondary in 2020, and expect recruits like Jahari Rodgers, Kamar Wilcoxson and Ethan Pouncey to begin their prowl this year.
Florida’s cornerbacks are enough to make any SEC quarterback shiver at the thought of throwing toward them. UF’s safeties, however, are another matter...
Brendan: I think my biggest concern is at wide receiver. After the graduation of four seniors and pass-catching back Lamical Perine, the Gators had to desperately keep the pantry stocked. Senior Trevon Grimes looks like he could be a legitimate No. 1 receiver, and redshirt sophomore Jacob Copeland has a lot of potential, but there are a lot of question marks after that.
Penn State transfer and former five-star prospect Justin Shorter and Texas transfer Jordan Pouncey were supposed to help fill in the gaps, but neither has received a waiver yet.
Senior Kadarius Toney has almost as many rushes (47) as receptions (50). As for the rest of the depth chart senior Rick Wells, he of two career catches for 27 yards, is the only one who has caught a pass at the college level.
It’ll be difficult to spread out opposing defenses if the Gators only have three receivers. Kyle Pitts is one of the best tight ends in the country, but Florida will need more out of its wide receivers.
Payton: I’m with Brendan and his concerns on the wide receiver front.
While Trevon Grimes (along with defensive lineman Zachary Carter) has made it clear via Twitter that he will be playing for the Gators this year despite having sat out the first day of camp last week, Jacob Copeland and Kadarius Toney have yet to squash any rumors about the possibility of opting out of the 2020 season over health and safety concerns.
And perhaps if Justin Shorter and Jordan Pouncey were quarterback transfers instead of wide receivers, then their waivers may have already been approved. But, I digress.
Another year of the Kyle-to-Kyle connection sounds promising, but five of Kyle Trask’s targets from last season are on professional rosters now, and two more have been very vocal about their to-play-or-not-to-play deliberations.
That warrants some concern.
River: Remember that other matter?
Florida’s safety corps was probably its weakest link last year, and that isn’t exactly set to change in 2020. Its bright spot is Shawn Davis, a veteran presence that the team will look to lean on once the season starts. But while Brad Stewart Jr. is known for his heroics against LSU two years ago when he picked off Joe Burrow, he saw a sharp decline in production last year that he’ll need to fix if the safety group wants to prove its worth.
While the Gators will lose safety Jeawon Taylor—which may be more of a blessing than a curse—they’ll retain safety Donovan Stiner, who led the team in interceptions last year despite a few rocky performances last season. UF will also see the addition of four-star recruit Reshad Torrence II, who it hopes will do much to shore up the weak line-up of safety talent when the season starts.
Payton: I’m most looking forward to the only rivalry game the Gators have left on their schedule: Florida-Georgia.
While this year’s matchup won’t be played Halloween weekend nor will it look like the World’s Largest Cocktail Party, it’s still poised to be a top-10 contest and the closest we’ll get to a normal season this year. Plus, the Gators might actually win this time.
Florida is 4-6 against Georgia over the last 10 years, with half of those losses coming out of their last three meetings. But this year, UGA quarterback Jake Fromm will be in Buffalo with the Bills instead of in Jacksonville under center for the Bulldogs.
In his three years with Georgia, Fromm typically showed out for the neutral site crowd, going undefeated against Florida in his college career and posting stats far more impressive than his season averages. For example, last year, he averaged 204 passing yards and 16.7 completions. Against UF, Fromm racked up 279 passing yards off 20 completions. In 2018, he averaged 196 passing yards and 14.7 completions on the season, but recorded 240 passing yards off 17 completions versus the Gators.
So, with a question mark in place of the starting quarterback position for UGA and a more experienced Kyle Trask at the helm for Florida this year, the Gators have a real shot at winning the newest edition of the age-old rivalry.
Brendan: I’ll go a little out of the box here, but I’m going with the opener against Ole Miss.
First, I’m still not sure how much football we’re actually going to get this year, so I’d rather pick one I know is going to happen. Plus, as weird as it is to enjoy sports coming back considering how the pandemic has affected this country, the first week of football is always enjoyable.
New Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin also has some history with the Gators. After being hired as Tennessee’s coach in 2009, Kiffin immediately started a rivalry with then-Florida coach Urban Meyer, accusing him of recruiting violations and promising a victory over UF.
Meyer and the Gators won 23-13, and Lane Kiffin left Rocky Top for USC after the season, but Florida fans still remember Kiffin’s antics. While Mullen wasn’t at UF in 2009, it should still be an interesting coaching matchup.
Plus, these two teams haven’t met since the Gators blew out Ole Miss in 2015, so it’ll be nice to watch a matchup we haven’t seen in a while.
River: I’m going to one-up Brendan by going even more out of the box: I’m really looking forward to seeing UF play Arkansas.
“But why?” you ask. “Arkansas hasn’t won a conference game in two years!”
I’ll tell you why, disembodied voice. Because that game will see one Feleipe Franks make his triumphant return to The Swamp, and revenge games are always a blast.
Fans typically recognize that Franks had a high ceiling with his tremendous arm strength, but he could have games (Missouri in 2018, Kentucky in 2019) that would leave anyone flabbergasted. The emergence of Kyle Trask has certainly improved the Gators’ fortunes, but that doesn’t mean Franks won’t try to march into Gainesville and prove to Dan Mullen that he made the wrong choice.
With the massive disparity in talent between Arkansas and UF, it’s very unlikely he accomplishes anything of the sort. But if the season actually manages to make it to November, I’d advise Mullen and the gang to be wary of a man under center with something to prove.
