Will President Donald Trump be impeached? This column previously discussed that for Democrats, Trump’s impeachment and removal from office may not be the best political alternative. However, following the controversy surrounding the president’s unwillingness to denounce white supremacists and neo-Nazis with strong enough rhetoric, many Democrats may not care about the political consequences. They may let their hysteria cloud their judgment and put aside their political goals to remove the alleged white supremacist enabler. To them, a lack of strong rhetoric denouncing an infinitesimal part of the U.S. population that has gained unprecedented media attention is more important than achieving health care, tax reform or infrastructure improvement. But is impeachment even possible?
Recently, several Democratic lawmakers have introduced articles of impeachment to the House Judiciary Committee. But in order for Trump to be impeached not only must the majority of the committee, which is composed of seven more Republicans than Democrats, agree with the suspected violations of law or character of the office (a tall order), but a simple majority of the U.S. House of Representatives must also agree. The Republicans currently control the House with 239 seats, compared to the 194 held by Democrats, with two vacancies. In order for impeachment to occur, 218 of these representatives must endorse impeachment, meaning 23 Republicans must change their minds regarding the president (another tall order).
If, by some miracle, 23 of these Republicans (none of which have voiced any desire to impeach Trump) decide that he has obstructed justice in the now forgotten Russian collusion investigation (as cited by Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman) or that he has proven incapable of protecting Americans due to the death of one “anti-fascist” supporter at the hands of a domestic terrorist (as cited by Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen), the president would be impeached. But this only means he is under an investigation, not that he has been formally convicted of anything. It does not mean he will automatically be removed from office or lose any of his governing powers. While it would obviously destroy his already feeble ability to govern, it would not result in Vice President Mike Pence becoming president. In order for Pence to replace Trump, Trump would have to be removed from office by the Senate.
This idea is not so far-fetched, although it is historically unprecedented. Former President Bill Clinton was acquitted by the Senate, despite being impeached by the House on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice in the Monica Lewinsky fiasco, even with overwhelming evidence against him. Former President Andrew Johnson, who replaced former President Abraham Lincoln and is one of the most disliked presidents in history, was also acquitted by the Senate after being impeached for violating the Tenure of Office Act. The fact that both of these men were not removed from office despite clear evidence against them demonstrates just how difficult it is to actually unseat a U.S. president. Former President Richard Nixon would have been impeached and removed from office if it wasn’t for his resignation one day prior to the impeachment vote. In order for removal from office to occur, two-thirds of a Republican-dominated Senate would have to support the measure. However, despite the difficulty demonstrated by previous Senate acquittals, 12 Republican senators have already voiced that they may be willing to take such action and, in combination with the 48 Democrats who would continue to blindly follow party lines, the House would only be six flipped Republicans away from removing Trump.
While it is unlikely that impeachment would ever occur, it is not impossible. Should Trump be impeached, a successful vote for removal would not be implausible for the Republican senators who seem to despise him. Until the 2018 midterm elections that will likely change the current political composition of Congress, the current Republican domination of the House and Senate make a Trump impeachment a mere pipe dream for Democrats.
Jack Story is a UF graduate. His column appears on Tuesdays.
