Presumptive Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has a huge electoral problem looming on the horizon, and it seems he and many of his supporters either do not want to acknowledge it or would rather dismiss it as a non-issue. The problem is Trump does not seem to do well with a diverse general election constituency.
For one, he has run a campaign that highlights building a border wall, calls for a temporary ban on all Muslim immigrants and refers to undocumented Mexican immigrants as drug dealers and rapists. Trump’s rhetoric did well — in fact, very well — in Republican primaries, but it probably does not have the mettle to win a long general election against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.
Take a look at the 2012 election, in which former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney lost, even though he won a majority of white male voters. Trump needs to get all those voters, plus women, Latinos and African-Americans. The policies and things Trump has said just don’t go over well with most voters. But Trump is lacking something else that he vitally needs: the full support of his party.
Trump’s nomination has already splintered the Republican Party in a way that will not be fully reparable this election cycle. While some, such as House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., will in all probability come around to Trump’s appointment as nominee, other Republicans seem to already be packing their bags and looking to 2020 for a more promising candidate. Many Trump supporters say Trump does not need help from the "establishment," but the hard truth is a general election candidate cannot be picky when it comes to supporters.
The division will likely increase, with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin saying she will put her support behind Ryan’s opponent in his district this November, recalling a former colleague, former House Speaker Eric Cantor, who met a similar fate. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has also been vocal on the difficulty of candidates who have local campaigns to run and win with Trump’s policies as the banner for the Republican Party.
Trump seems to understand his own general election problem to a certain degree, ergo the Cinco de Mayo taco bowl. While it may not be working, it clarifies how he recognizes his own shortcomings, to some degree. On the other hand, his woes with the “establishment” will be difficult to repair, since he will have to become part of it and unite the party.
Although Trump has started off his general election campaign from behind, winning the primaries by a lot, he has potential for giving gains to the Republican Party this election cycle. Ironically, the things that made Trump so popular with primary voters don’t look promising for the future of the party. Trump can continue to claim he is very popular with minorities and women, but saying it will not make it true, no matter how many times he says it. If Trump wants to win, he will have to do something that you cannot do over Twitter or at a rally: effectively organize the Republican Party and make peace with dissenters. If not, his losses against “crooked Hillary” will be huge. Really huge, folks.
Kevin Foster is a UF political science senior. His column appears on Tuesdays.
