While it is still relatively early in the primary season, I think I am ready to place my bet on who will eventually be the Republican candidate for 2016: John Kasich. You may know him from his comments about going to a same-sex wedding in the first Republican debate, but otherwise he has not made a lot of waves in the Republican race so far.
Perhaps his subtlety and quiet demeanor have been missed through the loud ramblings of anti-establishment candidates such as Trump, Carson and Fiorina. Even though the surges in these three candidates’ campaigns should be a concern to establishment Republicans, they will not be relevant next November. A campaign, especially for the presidency, is a marathon, not a sprint; this is something these three candidates do not seem to understand. Also, I don’t think many voters would vote for a candidate who proudly boasts zero government experience on a resume.
Compared to his fellow candidates, Kasich is the Hillary Clinton of the Republican Party as far as government experience goes. Kasich had a political career in Congress that lasted from the early 1980s all the way to the 2000s. While in Congress, Kasich was chair of the House Budget Committee as well as a member of the House Armed Services Committee.
Kasich not only has his congressional experience to pull from, he is also the current governor of Ohio. This brings with it a whole different set of experiences that many congressmen and congresswomen have not had. Kasich can cite his long career in public service in that he has worked in Congress and served as the governor of a state, the closest state-equivalent to a presidential role.
Kasich’s connection to Ohio also brings about certain advantages. A general rule of thumb for the election is the decision of Ohio is usually followed by that of the nation. Whoever wins Ohio wins the presidency, or so the motto has been since the 1960s. Kasich’s governorship there is definitely an advantage; in his re-election campaign last year he won by nearly 30 percent against his opponent. It is a tantalizing possibility that Kasich can utilize his popularity in Ohio to win the presidency.
Kasich’s ability to pivot from a conservative stance on a subject to a more moderate one could help him in the general election. For instance, during the first Republican debate he was asked if he would attend a same-sex wedding. He replied that he had attended a wedding that just so happened to be for a same-sex couple, and we as a people should accept individuals regardless of whether we agree with them on certain issues. After this, he received applause in a Republican primary debate, something that would have seemed impossible four years earlier. Kasich’s opinion on the issue was not a spur-of-the-moment thought: Ever since the Obergefell v. Hodges decision he has said the Supreme Court has made the final decision, and although he may not agree with it, there are other issues that need to be talked about. This is a candidate who actually understands how the political process works, a quality that has become increasingly rare in this primary season.
In an election where having the most divisive rhetoric allows you to reach the top of the polls, Kasich is not leading in any poll. Instead, he is one of the background candidates who speaks in between Trump’s egotistical ramblings and Carson’s Islamophobic asides. This may prove to be advantageous. Candidates who win Iowa or New Hampshire rarely end up winning the candidacy of the party: This is something to be mindful of if Donald Trump wins the Iowa caucus.
I do not agree with Republicans on most things, but Kasich seems to be one of the most moderate Republicans in the race. During the next debate, make sure to look out for that quiet Ohio governor, because he might become a household name in a few months.
Kevin Foster is a UF political science senior. His column appears on Thursdays.
