In order to win an election, a campaign has to mobilize voters. The best way to mobilize voters is to go after galvanized and organized groups of constituents.
Perhaps the most mobilized and galvanized group in American politics is Christian voters — more specifically, evangelical voters. Though the number of Americans who consider themselves religious has been steadily decreasing for decades, evangelical voters still head to the polls in great numbers. And the numbers of evangelicals are growing. This is in no small part due to the newest members of the evangelical coalition: Hispanics.
More and more Hispanics are shifting away from the more liberal Pope Francis-led Roman Catholic Church and into more conservative American megachurches. According to the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, “35 percent of Hispanics in America now call themselves ‘born again.’” In addition to this, the Pew Research Center states that while “more than two-thirds of the 52 million-plus Latinos in the U.S. are Catholic, that number could be cut in half by 2030.” As the number of Hispanics in America continues to rise, so does the number of evangelicals. This contributes to the expanding influence of the Christian right.
Evangelicals are incredibly involved in politics. Remember who evangelicals favored in 2008: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the guy who won the Iowa caucus. In 2012, they supported former Sen. Rick Santorum, who placed second in the Republican primaries. Evangelicals can and do easily influence an election.
Now consider what the Republican hopefuls will have to face in 2016: the primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. These states have impressive numbers of evangelical Christians who vote. In 2012, 57 percent of Iowa Republican voters were evangelical. In South Carolina, 65 percent of Republicans were.
If the candidates get past these first four states, they head to what NBC’s Chuck Todd calls the “SEC Primary.” These Southeastern states include Mississippi, Arkansas, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia. Evangelicals make up at least 24 percent and at most 41 percent of these states’ populations.
Now you can see why Ted Cruz went to the evangelical Liberty University to announce his candidacy. You can also see why the Grand Old Party contenders are supporting Indiana’s religious freedom bill.
Evangelicals’ strong turnout rate, political involvement and growing numbers make the Christian right one of the most, if not the most, important constituencies in the Republican and General elections. This is worrying for the establishment GOP. Jeb Bush has raised more money than any other potential Republican candidate. However, dollar bills can’t vote. Mobilized citizens can. For the lesser-known establishment candidates who are falling behind the Bush money machine and have little evangelical support — say a Chris Christie or a Bobby Jindal — this development does not bode well.
What I would like to know is what the evangelicals would like in return for their support.
George W. Bush captured the evangelical vote in 2000 and 2004. He gave them two very religious, albeit Catholic, Supreme Court justices who favor the religious rights of corporations. In 2002, he designed “faith-based initiatives” to “federally fund faith-based programs.” What would the current evangelical movement, which feels more under siege from the liberal secularists than ever, want in exchange for their support? I can imagine they would want prayer in the classroom and the continuation of religious tax exemption. These are not necessarily bad things for the secular country, but these issues are important to the evangelical community.
For those who do not like the growing influence of evangelicals, one can claim the religious voters want to undo the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision and limit marriage to one man and one woman. In any event, evangelical voters could be kingmakers in the 2016 election. Because of their political influence, they will not only be involved in the 2016 campaign, but also in the governing of the country thereafter.
Michael Beato is a UF economics junior. His column appears on Thursdays.
[A version of this story ran on page 6 on 4/2/2015 under the headline “Evangelical voters may decide fate of 2016 election”]
