Russian President Vladimir Putin hadn’t been seen in public between March 5 and March 15, and it made everyone a little worried. In a world constantly connected by social media and more traditional forms of news, world leaders — including our own President Barack Obama — have become more available to their subjects, at least in terms of their appearance in the public and technological sphere. In this reality, the disappearance of a constantly sought-after public figure becomes even more concerning.
Naturally, the rumor mill started churning. Was Putin in Switzerland to witness the birth of his love child with Olympic gymnast Alina Kabaeva? Had he fallen ill to the flu virus that is currently taking Moscow? Was he being held within the walls of the Kremlin as part of a coup endorsed by the Russian Orthodox Church? Or was he just taking a “well-deserved” rest?
While this unusual sabbatical from the public eye ended March 16, as he met with the president of Kyrgyzstan, Almazbek Atambayev, it has still raised the question in many people’s minds about what would happen if Putin had died.
Dmitry S. Peskov, the president’s press spokesman, had tried to lay the rumors to rest with ambiguous words, insisting there was nothing wrong. But in the midst of the recent and suspicious assassination of opposition leader Boris Y. Nemtsov several days before he planned to play a role in a peace rally against Russia’s involvement in the war in Ukraine, it’s no wonder the world, particularly Russia, was anxious to know where Putin was.
The New York Times quoted a reporter who has covered Putin for years as saying, “If an American president dies, not that much changes, but if a Russian leader dies everything can change — we just don’t know for better or worse, but usually for worse.”
Certainly people would care if an American president died, and there would be an upset in the so-called free world for some time while he was mourned, but it is something that has happened before. The vice president would usurp him and business would continue as usual until the next election. But in a federal semi-presidential system with communist precedence, as in Russia, the worry is real about what could happen if Putin were to die.
Despite an economy faltering under the effect of Western sanctions over Crimea occupation and the collapse in oil prices, Putin is still largely popular.
And while many do not agree with his policy or ideology in the running of the Russian government or its dealings with the rest of the world, many figure his successor would not be the remedy to the impending crisis. Likewise, the aftermath of his death would cause unrest due to the huge regional influence and nuclear arsenal Russia has.
The inner workings of the Russian government, like those of any other political superpower, are a mystery. As per statute, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev would become the temporary president and organize a presidential election within three months. But even then, a smooth transition would be unlikely.
Many wish for Putin’s demise in the hopes of a new start for Russia. But it is unlikely that a liberal, Western-friendly candidate will arise. As pro-opposition analyst Dmitry Oreshkin said, “Things would only get worse.”
It seems that the rise and fall of progressively less efficient and more nefarious rulers has become a cyclical norm. Elusive change will come eventually with tireless efforts, but this transformation will not come with the mere transition in power of a figurehead. It will be gradual, and it will be grueling.
Sol Angel Canal is a UF English junior. Her column usually appears on Mondays.
[A version of this story ran on page 6 on 3/19/2015 under the headline “What if Vladimir Putin had really died?”]
