Last week, President Barack Obama unveiled a proposal to make the first two years of community college tuition free for students who uphold certain standards.
These standards include being at least a part-time student, maintaining at least a 2.5 GPA and making “steady progress” toward completion of an associate’s or a bachelor’s degree. This proposal is a noteworthy one, as it would help cover part of the cost for students to attend college and increase human capital in the U.S., something that is definitely lacking. However noble the cause is, the one big question that remains is how it will be paid for.
A program of this magnitude is bound to become the next Obamacare. It sounds good in talking points and in speeches, but in reality its cost far exceeds initial estimates. According to the most recent Congressional Budget Office Economic Outlook, from now until 2024, the cost of Affordable Care Act subsidies will increase eightfold and Medicaid will double in cost, bringing the price tag for Obamacare up to $707 billion in 2024. Comparing that to the CBO projection of the cost of national defense in the year 2024, they will be nearly equal.
Again, making community college free is a noble endeavor, but so was the Affordable Care Act, and look at what its side effects have been: increased premiums, insanely high costs and a disruption in the marketplace. The same is bound to happen with making community college free. Just look at the numbers.
According to the White House’s own projections, the average cost of tuition per year for community college students is $3,800 and 9 million people would benefit from the program. Taking into account that the federal government would cover three-quarters of the cost and participating states would have to cover the rest, the cost of the program would be approximately $25.7 billion each year. That number could be lower if you include part-time students and the fact that all 50 states may not participate, but it’s still a substantial amount. And that expense would increase if you also figure in the cost of Obama’s proposal for an American Technical Training Fund, another government fund aimed at awarding college programs that provide accelerated training and accommodate part-time work.
The White House announced the program would cost $60 billion over the next 10 years, a number that doesn’t seem to add up. Even being nice and lowering my estimate of $25.7 billion a year to $15 billion a year, the actual cost would be $150 billion; and that doesn’t even include inflation and the increasing costs that we are bound to see happen with community colleges. With more students enrolling, community colleges will increase their tuition costs to align with demand. It has happened with four-year universities, and the same trend is expected with community colleges.
Adding to the disingenuity of it all is that it’s advertised as “free” — but only the tuition is free. Tuition is only 21 percent of the total cost of community college. According to College Board, other costs for community college include off-campus housing at $7,705 a year, books at $1,328 a year and transportation at $1,735 a year. Additionally, Obama’s proposal does not cover college fees, such as labs and campus health centers. Just like what he did with the Affordable Care Act, the president is trying to sell his plan as something that it is not.
All of this might be worthwhile if the country gained some sort of value from it. Unfortunately, graduation rates for community college students are at a shockingly low 25 percent among students who do not transfer to universities. Americans will fork over the money to pay for this program, but we won’t be getting any bang for our buck. The program pays for people to go to school, but hardly addresses any attempt to increase graduation rates, which is what really matters. According to Thomas Bailey, director of the Community College Research Center at Teachers College of Columbia University, “Lowering tuition increases enrollments, and that’s a good thing — But cost isn’t the only barrier to finishing.”
Typical liberal policy will not work with community colleges just as it never works for anything. Throwing money at the problem isn’t the only part of the puzzle. I would love to see a proposal from Obama that implements policies aimed at lowering costs of community college and four-year universities, so that people can pay for it on their own without government assistance. The current plan will only inflate costs over the coming years, putting a bigger burden on taxpayers with no noticeable results.
Nick Eagle is a UF economics and political science senior. His column appears on Mondays.
[A version of this story ran on page 7 on 1/12/2015 under the headline “Obama's proposed 'free' community college has its faults"]
