Political junkies across the state and throughout the country had their eyes fixated on Pinellas County last week, wondering whether the result of a special election to fill Congressman Bill Young’s vacated seat was a sign of things to come. Young was a Republican who served the district for decades until he passed away late last year. The district is firmly Republican, but Democrats felt they had an opportunity to win the seat, especially with former gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink.
Sink had a strong lead in early polls as Republicans duked it out for the nomination. Ultimately, David Jolly, a former aide to Young, won the seat by 3,400 votes and kept a Republican seat in Republican hands. Now, politicos throughout the country are trying to use this special election to determine the outcome of this fall’s midterm elections.
Here’s why you shouldn’t listen to the pundits:
Special elections tend to bring out only the most hardcore voters. It’s incredibly difficult to turnout Democrats in a midterm election, let alone a special election in the middle of March. Not trying to polish a turd — because Alex Sink had an opportunity to win and failed to do so — but this was a Republican seat won by a Republican in which about 125,000 voters turned out.
It is true that Democrats are not poised to do well in November, but that’s not strictly due to the current political climate. Rarely does the party of the incumbent president win seats in the second midterm elections. Remember 2006? Republicans took a bath after the American people seemed ready to move past George W. Bush.
Now, Republicans fully expect it’s their turn to bathe the Democrats and are hopeful that they’ll win additional seats in the House of Representatives. They feel confident they’ll take control of the U.S. Senate.
To my Republican friends: Be careful not to count your chickens before they’ve hatched.
Republicans are counting on an American electorate fed up with the policies of President Barack Obama and are still riding the anti-Affordable Care Act train, but Obamacare may not be the pariah in November that it seems to be right now.
Just a quick update on the Affordable Care Act: More than 4 million Americans now have health insurance as a result of the law, and the White House is hoping that when the March 31 deadline rolls around, that number will increase to 6 million. What happens if millions of Americans who didn’t previously have health insurance get it, like it and realize that maybe Obamacare isn’t the socialistic, communistic, evil, terrible, no-good law Republicans say it is?
That rhetoric may work for a March special election in Pinellas County, but we still have more than seven months until voters across the country cast ballots. And while the American people might be getting Obama-fatigue, they may not reward the Republicans, either. The president’s approval ratings continue to hover in the low 40s, which isn’t particularly good, but when you look at Congress’ approval rating, the low 40s look like an A-plus rating. A recent poll conducted by Public Policy Polling shows Congress with an 8-percent approval rating.
Yes, only 8 percent of Americans approve of how members of Congress are handling their jobs. Instead of Republicans winning in a so-called “wave” election, we instead may see a different wave — one in which challengers defeat incumbents.
Regardless of which party controls the House and Senate come January of next year, there are likely to be some new faces around the Capitol and some shocked, recently defeated incumbents lamenting their losses at home.
[Joel Mendelson is a UF graduate student in political campaigning. His columns appear on Mondays. A version of this column ran on page 6 on 3/17/2014 under the headline "Election results not an accurate forecast"]
