With former Republican and former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist announcing his gubernatorial candidacy on Monday, all eyes will eventually rest on our state in 2014. He will most likely be the Democratic challenger to face off against current Gov. Rick Scott. The main question that will be asked is, “Can the turncoat win back his office?”
Florida is a purple state. Conservative Sen. Marco Rubio and liberal Sen. Bill Nelson represent the state in the Senate, and 17 Republicans and 10 Democrats serve in the House of Representatives. The state is led by Scott with a Republican legislature. President Barack Obama carried the state in the 2012 and 2008 presidential elections. If there is a state in which a former governor who declared no party affiliation to run for the Senate and then switched his party yet again to run for governor’s office should be, Florida is definitely it.
But the question still remains: Can Crist win?
Democrats will vote for their guy, period. Their guy presumably will be Crist, due to his high profile and previous political experience. His status as a former Republican probably won’t bother them.
But will Republicans vote for him?
It is important to take two things into consideration: his tenure during his time as governor and his 2010 race for the Senate.
During his tenure in Tallahassee, Crist vetoed a bill that would ban taxpayer-funded abortions, and he supported environmental policy that opposed offshore drilling. These are no-nos in the current state of the Republican Party. He also nominated judges and justices who varied in their political ideology. Crist was a moderate to left-leaning Republican governor.
In 2010, he challenged former state House Speaker Marco Rubio for Florida’s vacated Senate seat. Even though Rubio has taken flak during the immigration debate not too long ago, he is still a popular, high-profile Republican. Many Republicans are still upset the moderate Republican Crist challenged Rubio for the seat.
History shows more Republicans than Democrats turn out to vote in non-presidential elections. Right-leaning independents and Republicans will make the difference in this election. They will decide if they want four more years of Crist at the helm or if his party change will affect their vote.
I propose that Crist will win the Democratic primary but lose to Scott in the general election.
But why? Demographics are shifting in the state and Florida voted for Obama in the last election.
Here are my reasons:
First of all, Florida is a pretty right-wing state. The state is pro-gun and pro-life, among other right-wing policy positions. Many municipalities — Miami, Orlando and Tampa to name a few — do have a large amounts of Democrats. However, the state has a stronger rural population that supports Republicans and will turn out for the election.
Second of all, Florida voted for Obama 50 to 49 last year. That was a high-profile, high-stakes presidential election. Everybody who was likely to vote did just that — they voted. It was not a landslide victory for Obama in Florida. As previously stated, off-year elections favor Republicans and tend to have lower voter turnouts.
Third, the most galvanized group in the state — and the country, for that matter — is the right-wing populists. They do not like Crist, did not support him in the Senate race and will not support his changed “political views.” They arguably have the strongest get-out-to-vote efforts and will mobilize supporters. Even though they may not support some of Scott’s policies, they will certainly unite to defeat Crist.
Even though this prediction is like picking a football team to win the Super Bowl before the season even starts, it is important to realize that Florida will be in the national political spotlight for 2014. If history tells us anything, we have a lot to worry about.
This election will be divisive, dirty and will attract a lot of super PACs. Here’s to looking forward to the madness.
Michael Beato is a UF economics sophomore. His column runs on Tuesdays. A version of this column ran on page 7 on 11/5/2013 under the headline "Can former Gov. Charlie Crist win?"
