Each week, two alligatorSports columnists will debate the biggest looming matchup in college football. Today, Phillip Heilman and Adam Lichtenstein preview No. 17 Florida’s showdown against No. 10 LSU in Baton Rouge, La., on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. on CBS.
Adam: Florida’s real schedule is about to start. After playing a mid-major, three Southeastern Conference weaklings and Miami, the Gators are about to enter the roughest stretch of their season.
They will play three straight ranked opponents that will make or break Florida’s shot for an SEC title, and it all starts on Saturday in Tiger Stadium.
The Gators have shown they are a resilient team. They have been without their offensive and defensive leaders for two games, and they have come away with two convincing victories.
After Florida marches into Death Valley as the underdog, it will come out with a third.
The Gators have shown all season that their defense is an unstoppable force. They haven’t just limited opposing offenses, they have shut them down. Offenses were completely unable to break through a powerful rush defense or a shut-down pass defense.
Although LSU will be the best offense Florida has faced, the defense will rise to the challenge and take down the Tigers.
Phillip: Thanks for making my job easy, Adam. You already stated my first point: Florida hasn’t played anybody.
For as well as the Gators’ defense has played to this point of the season — incredibly considering what it lost from 2012 — it has only faced one team that is averaging even mediocre numbers in 2013. And Miami promptly handed Florida its only loss of the season.
Of the five games Florida has played, Miami’s offense, which is tied for 24th in the nation, is the only team that cracks the top 60 in the country. Toledo is next at 65th. The trio of measly SEC teams UF has lambasted sits 84th, 85th and 91st in the country in total offense.
The Gators are in for a rude awakening in Death Valley on Saturday.
Led by senior quarterback Zach Mettenberger, LSU’s offense is far superior than even the Miami unit that shredded Florida during the first quarter of its 21-16 win on Sept. 7. The Tigers are scoring an insane 45.5 points per game and accumulating nearly 500 yards of total offense.
Even if Florida cuts those averages in half, the Gators will lose by a touchdown.
Adam: The Tigers have had nearly as easy of a schedule. Only two teams they faced are inside the top 50 for total defense. TCU — the top defense LSU has faced — held the Tigers to their second-lowest output of the season. And the Horned Frogs are 32 spots lower than the Gators in that category.
Yes, Florida struggled early against Miami, but that was against a team the Gators had not played in five years. They play the Tigers every season and are more familiar with the boys from the bayou. And once UF got a chance to settle in against UM, the defense excelled and has not looked back.
In the 15 quarters the Gators have played since surrendering 14 points to the Hurricanes in the first quarter in South Florida, the defense has allowed 27 points total. Seven of those points came on a 4-yard Miami drive after a turnover, and seven more came in garbage time against Tennessee. That’s absurd.
Mettenberger has had a great season throwing the football, but he has not faced a quality pass defense. Florida is No. 6 in the country at defending against the air attack — 50 spots higher than LSU’s top opponent.
This is clearly a game of strength against strength. LSU is great on offense, Florida is all about the defense.
And, like the cliché says, defense wins championships.
Phillip: Since the end of the 2009 season, the Tigers have lost just once at home. Once!
And that was last year — a game LSU should have won — to eventual champion Alabama.
It is incredibly rare for the Tigers to be taken out in Death Valley — ask the Florida squad that got pummeled by 30 points there two years ago — especially without a star quarterback. And guess what? Florida doesn’t have one of those.
Everything that Tyler Murphy has touched to this point in the season has turned into gold, but I’m willing to bet this is the week he becomes a pumpkin.
That is not to say Murphy will look as lost as Jacoby Brissett did in Tiger Stadium in 2011, but his numbers are going to take a hit playing in front of the most raucous crowd in the nation.
Matt Jones and Mack Brown will continue to struggle to find holes in the running game, which is going to put the onus on Murphy to make plays throughout the game. I don’t believe he can do it.
Murphy found the softest landing spot on Florida’s schedule to come in and play well right away.
Tennessee sucks. Kentucky sucks. Arkansas sucks a little less. But the fun and games are over. The bullies of the SEC are on their way.
Until Murphy shows me something against a real team, I will remain skeptical.
If he beats LSU on Saturday, then maybe I will think differently, but that’s not going to happen.
Follow Adam Lichtenstein on Twitter @ALichtenstein24. Follow Phillip Heilman on Twitter @phillip_heilman.
Tyler Murphy runs the ball during Florida’s 31-17 victory against Tennessee on Sept. 21 in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
