The Favorite: Louisville
The Cardinals enter the tournament as the favorite, and deservedly so. They compiled a 29-5 record even as center Gorgui Dieng missed seven games in November and December. Louisville opens the dance as hot as any team in the nation after winning 10 consecutive games and outscoring Syracuse 49-16 during the final 15:34 of the Big East Tournament championship game. Lightning quick guards Russ Smith and Peyton Siva live in the lane on offense and create havoc on defense for the Cardinals, who lead the nation in defensive efficiency and force turnovers on 27.6 percent of opponent’s possessions. Dieng is an eraser on the back line, and his offensive game is developing at a scary pace. Chane Behanan will rebound, Luke Hancock can knock down a three, and Wayne Blackshear provides a little of everything. As if that’s not enough to contend with, freshman Montrezl Harrell proved that he, too, is a threat, scoring 20 points in the Big East final.
Top Challenger: Duke
For the past two months, every conversation about Duke has revolved around Ryan Kelly. With Kelly in the lineup, Duke started the season 15-0 and was the No. 1 team in the nation. When Kelly missed 13 games between Jan. 12 and March 2 with a foot injury, Duke went 9-4. And when he scored 36 points in his first game back, a 79-76 win against Miami, Duke immediately re-entered the conversation as one of the best teams in the nation. Kelly’s impact is undeniable. A 48.6% three-point shooter, Kelly stretches defenses and makes life easier for center Mason Plumlee, an early-season player of the year candidate who averages 17.2 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. Quinn Cook has improved his shooting enough to become an all-around threat at point guard, while Seth Curry has scored 17 points per game despite playing the entire season with a right leg injury that limits him to one or two practices per week. With Tyler Thornton’s perimeter defense and Rasheed Sulaimon’s NBA talent, the Blue Devils are a team to be feared.
Storyline to Watch: Region of Death
Louisville may have been named the No. 1 seed, but its path to the Final Four is no reward. The Midwest region has nine of KenPom.com’s top 25 teams. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo has developed a reputation as perhaps the NCAA’s best coach in March, leading the Spartans to six Final Fours in his 17 years as MSU's head coach. After St. Louis coach Rick Majerus died of heart failure in December, interim coach Jim Crews led the Billikens to an Atlantic 10 championship. Butler coach Brad Stevens said St. Louis is a “legitimate contender to win the whole thing.” Oklahoma State is a dangerous team with Freshman of the Year Marcus Smart, and an athletic Memphis group is desperate to win an NCAA Tournament game for the first time in coach Josh Pastner’s four-year tenure.
Player to Watch: Doug McDermott, Creighton forward -- and -- Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State guard
McDermott ranks second nationally with 23.1 points per game and can score in every way imaginable. Not only does McDermott have an array of post moves, the 6-foot-8 power forward shoots 49.7% from beyond the arc. With his soft touch and quick release, McDermott can get and make any shot he wants. Smart, meanwhile, has been the focal point of Oklahoma State’s offense from his first day on campus. In addition to leading the team with 15.4 points and 4.2 assists per game, Smart averages 5.7 boards and 2.9 steals. Both Smart and McDermott are talented enough to carry their teams to the second weekend and beyond.
Sleeper: Oregon
The Ducks are a sleeper thanks only to the NCAA Tournament selection committee, which drastically under-seeded Oregon as a 12. With point guard Dominic Artis in the lineup, Oregon is 21-4. When he missed nine games between Jan. 26 and Feb. 23 with a foot injury, the Ducks went 5-4. But those numbers come with a caveat. Artis averaged 10.2 points and 3.8 assists on 38.9% shooting pre-injury but just 3.3 points and 2.3 assists on 26.9% shooting since his return. Whether or not he’s right will determine how far Oregon goes.
Junior center Patric Young (right) attempts a hook shot during Florida’s 66-40 win against Vanderbilt on March 6 in the O’Connell Center. .
