With Sunday’s announcement of the NCAA Tournament field, bracket season is finally upon us. Here are a few tips to help you win your pool.
- The most common read of the NCAA Tournament is that the field is “wide open.”
While there is no clear No. 1 team, there is a definite drop off after about the four-seed line. Don’t get too crazy.
- No. 1 seeds are 112-0 in the first round, and there’s no reason to predict that streak to end. Not all of those teams will make the Final Four — we’ll have more on that tomorrow — but a first round upset doesn’t appear to be in the cards, especially this year.
- Resist the urge to pick a No. 15 seed to pull a first-round upset. Although two No. 15 seeds won their first game last year, only six teams have done it since the field expanded to 64 in 1985.
No. 14 seeds are 16-96, while No. 13 seeds are 24-88. Still, it’s worth noting that six 13 seeds have reached the round of 32 in the past five years.
The upset pick du jour has been the 12-5, as those teams are 20-28 in the first round during the past 12 years.
On Wednesday, we’ll have a breakdown of some potential upsets.
- Don’t worry about teams that lack depth. With longer TV timeouts, rotations typically tighten in the postseason.
- Just because a team isn’t on ESPN doesn’t mean it isn’t a threat. The Atlantic 10 and Mountain West put five teams in the dance, and KenPom ranks the MWC as the No. 3 conference in the NCAA.
Here’s a quick bit on each:
No. 3 New Mexico: The Lobos play great defense and have good players 1-5, but they’ve won 15 games by single digits. Their 29-5 record could easily be worse.
No. 8 Colorado State: One of the best rebounding teams in a long time, the Rams are an experienced, physical group.
No. 5 UNLV: Easily one of the most talented teams in the country, the Runnin’ Rebels have four players with NBA potential. But without a true point guard, they struggle to get in a flow on offense.
No. 7 San Diego State: Jamaal Franklin is a one-man show. He leads the Aztecs in points, rebounds, assists, steals and highlight-reel dunks.
No 13 Boise State: The Broncos rely on the dynamic but inconsistent guard duo of Derrick Marks and Anthony Drmic.
No. 4 St. Louis: A trendy Final Four pick, the Billikens have the guards to match up with anyone on the perimeter.
No. 5 VCU: One word: havoc. The Rams lead the NCAA in forced turnovers and turnover margin, which allow them to get out and score in transition.
No. 6 Butler: The Bulldogs are tough, and coach Brad Stevens always has his team ready to play in March.
No. 13 La Salle: The Explorers play four guards with regularity, making them a difficult matchup.
No. 9 Temple: When Khalif Wyatt’s shot is on, the Owls are really, really dangerous.
Contact Greg Luca at gluca@alligator.org.
Junior center Patric Young (right) attempts a hook shot during Florida’s 66-40 win against Vanderbilt on March 6 in the O’Connell Center. .
