alligatorSports Consensus Bracket
After finishing in the 99th percentile in the ESPN.com Bracket Challenge last year, the alligatorSports Consensus Bracket is back for another run. This season’s picks come from columnist Greg Luca and basketball writers Katie Agostin and Landon Watnick.
Midwest
Second Round
No. 1 Louisville beats No. 16 North Carolina A&T: Louisville is the No. 1 overall seed for a reason. This game won’t be a challenge.
No. 9 Missouri beats No. 8 Colorado State: Colorado State has been exploited by scoring guards before, and Missouri’s Phil Pressey will continue that trend.
No. 5 Oklahoma State beats No. 12 Oregon: The Ducks are under seeded as a 12, but freshman Marcus Smart and the Cowboys will prevail.
No. 4 St. Louis beats No. 13 New Mexico State: A team that avoids turnovers and plays great defense, the Billikens will not fall prey to an early upset.
No. 11 St. Mary’s beats No. 6 Memphis: An athletic but disjointed Memphis team will get picked off by Matthew Dellavedova and St. Mary’s ball-screen offense.
No. 3 Michigan State beats No. 14 Valparaiso: Spartans coach Tom Izzo has been through this grind too many times to bow out in the first round.
No. 10 Cincinnati beats No. 7 Creighton: The Bearcats struggle to score but will have athletic mismatches across the board against the Blue Jays.
No. 2 Duke beats No. 15 Albany: After a second round loss to Lehigh as a No. 2 seed last year, Duke will be locked in against Albany.
Third Round
No. 1 Louisville beats No. 9 Missouri: Louisville’s relentless pressure will force Pressey into countless mistakes.
No. 4 St. Louis beats No. 5 Oklahoma State: St. Louis will control the tempo and keep Oklahoma State’s dynamic guards in check.
No. 3 Michigan State beats No. 11 St. Mary’s: The Spartans will win by pounding it inside with Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne.
No. 2 Duke beats No. 10 Cincinnati: The Blue Devils’ sharpshooting offense will overwhelm the Bearcats, who simply don’t have the firepower to keep up.
Sweet 16
No. 1 Louisville beats No. 4 St. Louis: Louisville guards Russ Smith and Peyton Siva are simply too fast and too athletic for St. Louis.
No. 3 Michigan State beats No. 2 Duke: The Spartans win this game on the boards as Duke’s Mason Plumlee wilts against the physicality of Nix.
Elite 8
No. 1 Louisville beats No. 3 Michigan State: The fast, athletic Cardinals will force the Spartans into turnover after turnover. The size advantage Michigan State has against most teams won’t exist against Louisville rim protector Gorgui Dieng.
West
Second Round
No. 1 Gonzaga beats No. 16 Southern: Center Kelly Olynyk and the Zags have far too much talent.
No. 8 Pittsburgh beats No. 9 Wichita State: In a battle of two similar teams, the Panthers are simply better across the board.
No. 5 Wisconsin beats No. 12 Ole Miss: The Badgers will slow the tempo and take Rebels guard Marshall Henderson out of his comfort zone.
No. 4 Kansas State beats No. 13 La Salle: The Wildcats have the personnel to match up with the Explorers’ guard-heavy offense.
No. 6 Arizona beats No. 11 Belmont: Arizona’s trio of freshman bigs will thrive against a Belmont team that doesn’t have a player taller than 6-foot-7 in its rotation.
No. 3 New Mexico beats No. 14 Harvard: The Lobos are too good on defense is to fall prey to an early upset.
No. 7 Notre Dame beats No. 10 Iowa State: Notre Dame’s Jack Cooley dominates on the glass and in the post, negating Iowa State’s spread attack.
No. 2 Ohio State beats No. 15 Iona: Iona is a dangerous team, but Ohio State’s Aaron Craft will lock up Lamont Jones.
Third Round
No. 8 Pittsburgh beats No. 1 Gonzaga: The Bulldogs have been dominant all year, but they haven’t faced a team with the size and physicality of the Panthers.
No. 5 Wisconsin beats No. 4 Kansas State: Kansas State’s big men will be uncomfortable guarding Wisconsin on the perimeter, and the Wildcats’ harassment won’t faze the Badgers’ guards.
No. 3 New Mexico beats No. 6 Arizona: Lobos center Alex Kirk’s ability to step outside will be the difference in an otherwise even matchup.
No. 2 Ohio State beats No. 7 Notre Dame: Buckeyes’ power forward Deshaun Thomas will run wild against the Fighting Irish.
Sweet 16
No. 5 Wisconsin beats No. 8 Pittsburgh: In a matchup of two physical teams, Wisconsin’s defense grinds Pittsburgh to a halt.
No. 2 Ohio State beats No. 3 New Mexico: Craft shuts down New Mexico point guard Kendall Williams as Thomas drives the offense.
Elite 8
No. 2 Ohio State beats No. 5 Wisconsin: Ohio State earns some sweet revenge after losing to Wisconsin in the Big 10 Tournament final. The Badgers sub-par shooting will be the difference against one of the NCAA’s top defensive teams.
South
Second Round
No. 1 Kansas beats No. 16 Western Kentucky: No. 1 seeds are 112-0.
No. 9 Villanova beats No. 8 North Carolina: North Carolina struggles to rebound from a loss in the ACC Tournament final as inconsistent Villanova plays one of its best games of the year.
No. 5 VCU beats No. 12 Akron: With point guard Alex Abreu suspended, the Zips will have no answer for the Rams’ “Havoc” defense.
No. 4 Michigan beats No. 13 South Dakota State: Trey Burke and the Wolverines outshoot Nate Wolters and the Jackrabbits in the second round’s best individual matchup.
No. 11 Minnesota beats No. 6 UCLA: The Golden Gophers will dominate on the offensive glass as the Bruins struggle to adjust to the absence of injured Jordan Adams.
No. 3 Florida beats No. 14 Northwestern State: The Gators will have no trouble playing at the Demons’ frenetic pace.
No. 7 San Diego State beats No. 10 Oklahoma: SDSU’s Jamaal Franklin will be by far the best player on the floor against an Oklahoma squad that does nothing especially well.
No. 2 Georgetown beats No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast: FGCU upset Miami earlier this season, but Georgetown will be on guard.
Third Round
No. 1 Kansas beats No. 9 Villanova: Villanova will have no answer for dynamic Kansas guard Ben McLemore.
No. 4 Michigan beats No. 5 VCU: The nation’s best at taking care of the basketball, Michigan will have no trouble with VCU’s pressure.
No. 3 Florida beats No. 11 Minnesota: The Gators’ pressure will exploit turnover-prone Minnesota from start to finish.
No. 2 Georgetown beats No. 7 San Diego State: Georgetown will pack it in on defense and force San Diego State to take contested threes.
Sweet 16
No. 1 Kansas beats No. 4 Michigan: Defensive anchor Jeff Withey will be the key as Kansas slows Michigan’s high-powered offense.
No. 3 Florida beats No. 2 Georgetown: The Gators have the personnel to defend Hoyas’ superstar Otto Porter, and UF will drain three after three when the Hoyas go to zone.
Elite 8
No. 1 Kansas beats No. 3 Florida: Kansas has the size and athleticism to guard UF at all five positions. With Withey patrolling the lane, the Gators will become even more reliant on the three ball. A cold shooting night will spell their demise.
East
Second Round
No. 1 Indiana beats No. 16 James Madison: Indiana is really good. James Madison isn’t. #analysis
No. 8 N.C. State beats No. 9 Temple: As long as N.C. State can contain Temple’s Khalif Wyatt, the Wolfpack will win on sheer talent.
No. 5 UNLV beats No. 12 California: The Runnin’ Rebels are one of the NCAA’s most talented teams, while the Golden Bears aren’t great in any area.
No. 4 Syracuse beats No. 13 Montana: After enduring a prolonged rough patch, Syracuse’s revitalized offense will continue to roll.
No. 6 Butler beats No. 11 Bucknell: Butler coach Brad Stevens will have a game plan to stop dominant Bucknell center Mike Muscala.
No. 14 Davidson beats No. 3 Marquette: Davidson will get enough good looks at threes to open up space for the frontcourt duo of Jake Cohen and De’Mon Brooks.
No. 7 Illinois beats No. 10 Colorado: Illinois guard Brandon Paul shows up big time, outshining Colorado’s Spencer Dinwiddie.
No. 2 Miami beats No. 15 Pacific: Miami is too good defensively to suffer an early upset.
Third Round
No. 1 Indiana beats No. 8 N.C. State: The more talented Hoosiers will crush the Wolfpack on the offensive glass.
No. 4 Syracuse beats No. 5 UNLV: Without a true point guard, the Runnin’ Rebels will be unable to get their offense into a rhythm against the disruptive Orange zone.
No. 6 Butler beats No. 14 Davidson: In an otherwise even game, Butler’s toughness and Rotnei Clarke’s shooting will be the difference.
No. 2 Miami beats No. 7 Illinois: Miami has the personnel to guard Illinois, and Hurricanes point guard Shane Larkin will be the best player on the floor.
Sweet 16
No. 1 Indiana beats No. 4 Syracuse: The Hoosiers will once against dominate on the offensive glass, kicking the ball out to open shooters who will have an easy time getting good looks against the Orange zone.
No. 6 Butler beats No. 2 Miami: Never doubt Brad Stevens come Tournament time. Butler wins the battle of the boards and grinds Miami into a pulp.
Elite 8
No. 1 Indiana beats No. 6 Butler: More than three long months after Butler’s 88-86 overtime win against Indiana on Dec. 15, the Hoosiers will have their revenge. Cody Zeller will be an impossible cover for Andrew Smith, while Victor Oladipo and Yogi Ferrell will be too fast and too athletic for Butler’s perimeter players.
Final Four
Louisville beats Ohio State: While OSU’s Craft will take away either Siva or Smith, the other will run wild. Cardinals center Gorgui Dieng will dominate around the basket, and Buckeyes power forward Deshaun Thomas will be shut down by the combination of Chane Behanan and Montrezl Harrell.
Kansas beats Indiana: After looking like little more than a highly talented role player for much of the season, McLemore charges into the national spotlight and asserts himself as one of college basketball’s best players. Withey takes away Cody Zeller and Travis Releford takes away Victor Oladipo as the Jayhawks stout defense slows one of the NCAA’s best offenses.
National Championship
Kansas beats Louisville: Smith and Siva have lived on the edge all season, overcoming bad decisions and questionable shots with sheer talent. Against a defense as strong as KU’s, those slip-ups will prove costly. The Cardinals’ pressing defense and mix of man and zone will present a challenge, but Jayhawks point guards Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe are hitting their stride at the perfect time. The clash between future NBA centers Withey and Dieng will be epic, with Withey coming out on top.
Senior guard Kenny Boynton (1) takes it to the basket during Florida’s 66-63 loss to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament final on March 17 at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn. Boynton and the Gators have lost in the Elite Eight each of the last two years.
