Anyone who is expecting big things from the Gators this season is either falling victim to blind optimism or foolishly taking the team at its word.
At quarterback, many expect the winner of the battle between Jacoby Brissett and Jeff Driskel to take significant steps forward from last season, when both struggled.
They played only a limited number of snaps in 2011 and have had to learn a whole new offense since the season ended. We haven’t been able to watch practices, so how can we be sure that the reason the competition between the two is so close is because they have both played so well, not because they have both played poorly? Because that is what they tell us? That is hardly convincing.
Even if you want to believe that the winner of the starting quarterback job will be OK, it is laughable to expect big-time production from either option given the weapons around them.
While the quarterbacks have a relatively clean slate because they saw limited playing time in 2011, the wide receiving corps that struggled as much as any unit on the team last year remains largely the same.
The Gators’ four returning wideouts with receptions are Frankie Hammond Jr., Quinton Dunbar, Solomon Patton and Andre Debose. That group combined to catch 48 passes for 864 yards and six touchdowns in 2011.
Sixty wide receivers in the NCAA last year had more receiving yards than that group, more than 100 receivers had more receptions and 88 caught more touchdowns.
Debose led all of the returning wideouts with 16 receptions last year. That total would have made him a top-four pass catcher on just one other Southeastern Conference team — LSU.
Some think the formula for the UF offense this season is simple: Run the ball and don’t ask the quarterbacks to do too much.
But the running backs haven’t accomplished enough to prove they can hold up their half of that equation. Mike Gillislee’s 5.9 yards-per-carry average is nice, but very little of his production came in meaningful situations. His backups have accomplished even less.
To assume the Gators can win by leaning on the run game is misguided. They have to get something out of their wide receivers, but the wideouts on the roster have nothing to offer.
Maybe a freshman skill position player steps up, perhaps Kent Taylor or Latroy Pittman. But relying on freshmen is risky.
The last freshman to catch 20 passes for the Gators was Trey Burton in 2010, and he averaged just 6.6 yards per catch.
A freshman wide receiver hasn’t caught 20 passes for Florida since Percy Harvin caught 34 in 2006.
The defense will be as dominant as everyone expects, but unless the Gators find an unexpected source of offense, banking on more than seven wins is simply unrealistic.
Contact Josh Jurnovoy at jjurnovoy@alligator.org.
