Corey: For those of you looking for a competitive NBA finals, don’t get your hopes up. The real finals ended when the Thunder took four straight games to upset the Spurs. Now begins the encore: like when you sit through a Dexys Midnight Runners concert. When they hit the stage at the end to play one last song, there is only one possible outcome.
After witnessing Scotty Brooks out-coach the great Gregg Popovich, Erik Spoelstra might as well step down and escape with what little confidence (and resume) he has left. Opening as a 4.5-point favorite, the Thunder will take Game 1 from a worn-down Heat squad in the Sooner State.
Sure, the Heat might find a way to fight back, maybe connect with a few slaps here and there. The Pacquiao-Bradley judges might even claim the Heat were the better team. But with an 8-0 record at home this postseason, the Thunder will ultimately end this series in six games.
Joe: Oh, Corey. Did you even watch the Eastern Conference Finals? It may have been a rough, ugly, seven-game crap fest, but it produced a real champion: the Heat.
Granted, Miami looked far from great. They were inconsistent and, at times, overmatched by the Celtics. But then, much to the dismay of throngs of haters, the dominant version of the Heat made an unwelcome return to the spotlight only rivaled by the release of the utterly useless third installment of the Men in Black franchise. Down 3-2 and sitting on the brink of elimination, LeBron James roared back to life and dominated.
King James scored 76 points and grabbed 27 rebounds in the final two games of the series to send Boston packing. In the words of Dwight Schrute from NBC’s The Office, “The hand that reaches from the grave to grip your throat is the strong hand you want on the wheel.” With LeBron sitting pretty in the driver’s seat, Miami is cruising towards a championship.
Corey: You could have Jimmie Johnson in the driver’s seat for all I care; in the end you still have a Pontiac Fiero. Sure it looks flashy, but put it in a race and you’re no better than Danica Patrick.
Just look at the Thunder’s supporting cast: Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins and Thabo Sefolosha. With two prolific shot blockers down low, and a defensive specialist roaming the perimeter, LeBron will have a better chance of getting in and out of Cleveland alive than attacking the rim.
Say what you will about the Thunder’s defense, but what they did to the Spurs after Game 2 was nothing short of impressive. And with an offense averaging 102.3 points per game with a 51.2 adjusted field goal percentage, defense might as well be optional.
Joe: Looks flashy? C’mon, Corey. LeBron James was named the NBA MVP this season. He’s the best automobile on the market. And as much as Chicky-Chicky-Bron-Bron tried to prove he’s a one-man show in the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, he’s only one part of “The Big Three.”
Even though he dresses like a Ken doll, Dwyane Wade is a top-five player in the league, and Chris Bosh — the only known dinosaur still roaming the earth — is a perennial All Star. These three guys are not a joke. D-Wade is known for his ability to create — and convert — tough shots.
The Thunder may boast a powerful paint trio, but it’s nothing Wade hasn’t seen before. In fact, Wade averaged 20.5 points per game against Oklahoma City in two meetings this season. As far as Bosh is concerned, he can form an adequate duo with Udonis Haslem down low. The Heat may not overpower the Thunder in the post, but they’ll keep it close.
Corey: Udonis Haslem would make a better duo with Art Garfunkel (sorry, Florida fans). That 6-foot-8 liability will give either Perkins or Ibaka the chance to sit in the lane and cut off the Heat’s bread-and-butter: driving the lane. This season, the Thunder led the league with 8.17 blocks per game, almost two blocks more than the second-place Wizards.
And you’re forgetting that one dreaded quarter — the one that comes after “The First Three.” The Heat are notorious for struggling in the fourth, and the Thunder seem to have found their stroke this postseason, putting up 29.3 points in their last four games with an 83.5 free throw percentage. Meanwhile, Miami has not fared as well at the charity stripe this postseason with a 72.3 percent clip.
It goes without saying that adjusting to the trio of scoring champ Kevin Durant, sixth-man-of-the-year James Harden and All-Star Russell Westbrook is like predicting who will be gone from the Heat next year: Bosh or Spoelstra.
Joe: Funny you should mention blocks considering the Heat lead the NBA with the fewest opponent blocks per game in the playoffs (3.5). If anything, Miami will drive the lane with fervor against Oklahoma City. When it comes down to it, LeBron is better man-to-man than anybody in the NBA.
Also, as I mentioned before, that Wade guy is pretty good at getting to the basket and making things happen. The Heat will get to the free-throw line early and often against the Thunder. Granted, Miami averaged roughly three fewer free-throw attempts against Oklahoma City than against other foes this season. However, the Heat’s 93 percent rate from the charity stripe against the Thunder, which was 15.5 percent higher than their regular season clip, should compensate for the slightly lower free throw count.
In this high-powered battle between two abstract, natural elements, James and Wade will play like freaks of nature. The Thunder can’t take the Heat, so they better stay out of the kitchen.
Contact Joe Morgan at joemorgan@alligator.org and Corey McCall at cmccall@alligator.org.
