What Americans have experienced in the course of the last three years has been a cacophony of Arab political upheavals, U.S. economic uncertainty, a flurry of legislative achievements and a divided nation.
In spite of some extraordinary foreign and legislative accomplishments, President Obama’s re-election remains eerily uncertain, compounded by several factors both in and out of his control.
When determining the prospects that a sitting president will be re-elected, one has to look at the state of the economy.
Let’s get the facts straight. Americans vote with their pocketbooks. The U.S. economy is currently picking up, which is in Obama’s favor.
Earlier this week, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke told ABC News, “We haven’t quite yet got to the point where we can be completely confident that we’re on a track to full recovery.”
However, there were 2 percent fewer foreclosures in February compared to January, according to RealtyTrac.
On the other hand, gas prices continue to increase, bringing down the president’s approval ratings.
Job growth has steadily increased, with more than 200,000 jobs added last December.
The economy grew 3 percent during the final quarter of 2011, but these numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show some foundation for an improving economy.
The danger over European austerity threatens the fragile euro, and our own economy is not free of either the burden of inflation or a double-dip recession.
On the foreign policy front, a New York Times poll found that 69 percent of Americans believe we should not be at war in Afghanistan.
This lack of confidence signals trouble to the unstable Middle Eastern nation, just as the U.S. prepares to depart.
The biggest issue, in terms of foreign policy, appears to be the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran, which Israel has already stated it will not tolerate.
The relationship between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel is tainted with a lack of confidence and personality conflicts.
At the American Israel Public Affairs Committee policy conference on March 5, Netanyahu stated, “We’ve waited for diplomacy to work, we’ve waited for sanctions to work. None of us can afford to wait much longer.”
This year’s election will give Obama yet another headache, especially if Netanyahu decides to launch a preemptive attack on Iran, potentially destabilizing the region and putting Israel and the U.S. at risk.
Health care, one of the president’s biggest accomplishments, may be dealt a major blow by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care act, if the hearings at the U.S. Supreme Court are any indication.
The Supreme Court concluded hearing arguments on Wednesday, breaking several precedents. The six hours of hearings over three days set off a flurry of speculation.
The scathing controversy surrounding the individual mandate remains the source of the bill’s fate. The scope of federal government oversight of commerce was challenged and skeptically held by Justices Scalia, Thomas and Alito.
Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Kennedy remain on the fence, more than likely holding the deciding votes on the legislation.
If the bill is entirely thrown out, Obama will be dealt an enormous blow. His major legislative accomplishment, with political capital, goodwill and effort, will be squandered.
When it comes to demographics, President Obama still has influence over Hispanics, African-Americans and much of his base. However, Obama has lost ground with Caucasian, blue-collar voters.
In the 2012 election, every vote will count. Even Obama’s large campaign war chest, which USA Today estimated at more than $240 million, may not be enough. Crossroads GPS and other Republican super PACs will soften Obama’s formidable purchasing power with their own large war chests.
It still is possible for Obama to narrowly win his re-election, especially when you consider the divided Republican nomination process and eventual battered nominee.
In any case, this election still contains a lot of uncertainty about where the president will stand with the American electorate.
Guillermo Pradieu is an English sophomore at UF.
