Will Muschamp is back from the gas station.
He holds in his hand 23 scratch-offs. Some are the $5 type with huge potential payouts, like Jonathan Bullard and D.J. Humphries. Then there are the $4 and $3 investments like Jessamen Dunker, Latroy Pittman and Matt Jones, who aren’t as touted but could easily lead to big bucks.
Either way, he won’t know until he gets to scuffin’.
Unlike most scratch-offs, this reveal takes a while. Muschamp says we need to wait two or three years to start evaluating a recruiting class, so let’s look back on some of UF’s past five-star shots.
In hindsight, would anybody be that bummed if Florida hadn’t landed Ronald Powell in 2010? Gary Brown in 2009? Will Hill, Carl Moore or Matt Patchan in 2008? Torrey Davis or Cam Newton — oh, wait… scratch that last one — in 2007?
Point is, the names and the stars matter significantly less than what’s revealed after the silver latex film is rubbed away.
Florida brought in 11 five-star players from 2007 to 2009, and only Carlos Dunlap truly panned out.
By contrast, the 2007 class alone brought in eight four-star studs — Joe Haden, Aaron Hernandez, Ahmad Black, Chris Rainey, Major Wright, Jaye Howard and Mike and Maurkice Pouncey — out of 16 recruits.
Mixed in with those success stories are the 19 four- or five-star players recruited from 2007-2010 who either transferred or were kicked off the team.
Now, obviously these are pretty small samples sizes, and I have the luxury of picking and choosing who to highlight to make my point.
But the fact remains that every year someone writes that too much importance is placed on the stars and the ratings, and every year that lesson is quickly forgotten.
So here’s your 2012 reminder: All Florida did today was secure 23 shots in the dark. Sure, all the experts think the five-stars have a better chance to pan out than the four-stars, but at this point nobody knows.
Urban Meyer thought he assembled a defensive front for the ages in 2010 with five-stars Dominique Easley, Sharrif Floyd and Ronald Powell. But it didn’t work out right away, and it remains to be seen if any of them will reach their potential.
Why is that? Because of the way recruiting is covered.
All of these five-star kids have been praised and worshiped for two or three years at this point, and it’s impossible for that not to get to a high-school athlete’s head. The environment breeds players who walk around campus calling themselves the “Big Three” and expect success to just come naturally.
Give me a four-star with a chip on his shoulder who feels slighted by the system and wants a shot to prove himself over that entitled attitude every time.
At the end of the day, they’re all lottery tickets anyway.
Contact Greg Luca at gluca@alligator.org.
