Americans rarely ever pay heed to international celebrations that honor the establishment of a foreign nation. On Oct. 9, the People's Republic of China celebrated the centennial of the 1911 Chinese Revolution. Aside the cacophony of other pressing matters, this event signifies three important issues all Americans should be concerned with: (1) the upcoming Fifth Generation of leadership, (2) potential foreign and economic issues and (3) the future of China.
For anyone privy to the accordance of the Chinese Constitution (or lack thereof), current General Secretary and President Hu Jintao must relinquish his positions in 2012 and 2013, respectively. In regards to term limitations, the Fifth Generation will succeed President Jintao and his premier, Wen Jiabao. At the nadir of his reign and influence, President Jintao appeared on Sunday with his predecessor, former General Secretary Jiang Zemin.
President Zemin appeared to usurp rumors of his passing and worsening health since he left office in 2002. The reasons are also political, both to reaffirm China internationally in its own era of prosperity and to smooth crumbling relations between old Communist loyalists of President Zemin and younger technocrats of President Jintao. Currently, it is widely anticipated that First Secretary Xi Jinping will succeed President Jintao.
If so, his reported frank and terse manner in dealing with domestic corruption, economic matters and foreign matters could highly shape the future of Sino-American relations for the next decade. In particular, potential disputes involving Taiwan, trade wars that could increase the prices of goods and services domestically here, U.S. naval supremacy in Southeast Asia, competitions in currency evaluations and investments in developing countries are simply a miniscule number of issues.
While the legacy of President Zemin in China remains censored and reportedly mediocre, his economic contribution in both policy and philosophy is still being experienced. From the beginning of his reign in 1989 to his bowing out in 2002, the People's Republic of China has shifted from a primarily command-based Communist nation to a semi-authoritarian Communist nation that has seen private enterprise on both regional and state fronts. Average GDP growth under President Zemin hovered above 6 percent, spelling increase per capita income gains for millions. The joining of the World Trade Organization and the establishment of firm trade relations under President Clinton produced innumerable economic gains. In our current global atmosphere, Xi Jinping (if chosen as leader) will be unable to avoid several daunting issues: An increasing U.S. military presence challenges Chinese military capabilities in the region, trade wars with the U.S. over the Chinese currency or managing an ever increasing nation under the strain of an archaic Communist political system. We have very little to go upon from the intelligence gathered on Xi Jinping. Will he be a hardliner like some of his predecessors, increasing the strain of our relationship with China? Or will he be a moderate like President Jintao, part of a sweeping generation of consensus-building moderates?
Perhaps all speculation must be based on some semblance of factual information gathered before us. If Xi Jinping does hold the dual offices of general secretary and president, his approach to domestic matters may open a window into our future. Growing environmental devastation and pollution endanger the lives of millions of Chinese citizens. While China managed the "Great Recession" with a well-crafted stimulus package that cushioned decreased GDP quarterly growth, investments will peak. Higher production costs in China have shifted some goods to its competitors, including Thailand, India and Singapore.
The Hong Kong Trade Development Council estimated a potential jump from 5 to 9 percent in producing goods. Growing social unrest from crippling gaps in income wages between agricultural farmers and blue-white-collar workers will also test the Chinese government's ability to hold stability. There is much we have to look forward to, but any continuing of a peaceful coexistence must be factored with a pragmatic approach to China.
Guillermo R. Pradieu is an English sophomore at UF.
