Am I crazy to think UAB might actually have a shot Saturday?
Even when Florida opened last season with a historically anemic performance against a patsy from the Mid-American Conference, it still beat Miami (Ohio) by 22. Coincidentally, that’s the margin by which Florida is favored against UAB, a Conference USA team that went 4-8 last year.
But here are the 10 biggest reasons I think Florida should be on upset alert:
1. UAB is a lot better than it seems. This team lost four games by one score or less in 2010 and is returning 16 starters.
2. Blazers head coach Neil Callaway. He’s in his fifth year on the job, and he needs to win now, or he’s likely gone.
3. UAB is unveiling a new defensive scheme with Tommy West calling the shots. Since Saturday marks UAB’s opener, a lot of what he’s going to do is a mystery. Charlie Weis said he’s using both 2010 UAB film and 2009 Memphis film — West’s last job — to prepare. That’s a lot for UF to digest.
4. UAB will test Florida’s weakness. The Blazers will air it out in a pass-happy spread offense, one that figures to be effective with returning starter Bryan Ellis at quarterback. Without question, Florida’s most shaky, or at least most unproven, position group is the secondary. With Jeremy Brown still “probable-to-questionable,” the Gators could be forced to lean heavily on four players who never started before this season and one Moses Jenkins. Not a great scenario.
5. No heat off the edge. One area Muschamp tagged as a weakness from Saturday was the outside pass rush. UF can expect UAB’s offensive line to set up with wide splits, making that task even more difficult.
6. Florida could suffer a letdown. The Gators have been running the two-scrubs-then-Tennessee open to the season for a while now, and history shows they’ve been equally dominant against both softies. But this is a new, young group that was under enormous pressure to look good in Week 1 following last year’s struggles. Now that this hurdle has been cleared, it wouldn’t be a stretch if they had their sights set on Tennessee rather than UAB.
7. UF’s defensive tackles could never match Saturday’s effort. Florida’s big men in the middle looked like world-beaters last weekend. Dominique Easley, Jaye Howard and the rest of the gang lived in the backfield, and there was nothing FAU could do about it. UAB isn’t that bad. The Blazers return four of five offensive line starters and a Rimington Trophy watch list center in Darion Smith. If they can convert just one or two first downs — something FAU couldn’t do until almost halftime — UF’s defensive tackles might start to breathe a bit heavier, and Dominique Easley’s legendary get-off might not be so legendary.
8. No Floyd, big problem. With Sharrif Floyd still ineligible for the time being, the Gators might lack the depth necessary to keep their big guys fresh, especially if both teams stick with the hurry-up.
9. The Swamp won’t have its familiar sting. Florida drew only 88,708 fans for its season opener, breaking a streak of 137 consecutive sellouts dating to 1989. Considering that was opening day, the crowd for UAB should be significantly smaller.
And even if it isn’t, the Blazers won’t care. In front of 95,183 fans at Tennessee last season, UAB was any one of five missed field goals in regulation away from a win, instead falling 32-29 in double overtime.
10. UAB has a new kicker.There’s an extremely high likelihood I’m way off base on this. If Florida rolls by 30, I won’t be shocked in the least, and I’ll gladly eat a large helping of crow. But, if it works out that way, it’ll be because UF proved something, not because UAB is just another pushover.
Contact Greg Luca at gluca@alligator.org.
