Tom Green
twitter: @tomas_verde
A friend messaged me from Las Vegas last week regarding the over/under set for Florida’s win total this season, its first under coach Will Muschamp.
The seemingly all-knowing oddsmakers set the mark at eight (!) wins for the Gators. After staring at a Florida schedule toting six matchups with preseason top-25 teams, including three with top-five teams, I’d be hard-pressed to take the over.
That’s not to say I condone gambling. This is college football, and I wouldn’t dare sully the integrity of the game.
However, if I were a betting man, I’d take the under because Muschamp’s inaugural season will be a rocky one.
Never mind the daunting schedule — this team has too many question marks on both sides of the ball to reach that nine-win threshold.
Will the team’s pass rush make a turnaround from a dismal 2010? Who will replace Ahmad Black and Janoris Jenkins in the secondary if that pass rush fails (again)?
Who will be the go-to receiver, and will John Brantley even be able to find that as-of-yet-determined receiver? And of course, how will the offensive line hold up after losing three starters to the NFL?
Those questions will be masked early when the Gators start the season 4-0 with wins over powerhouses Florida Atlantic and UAB, and Southeastern Conference East foes Tennessee and Kentucky.
But then the calendar will turn to October, and things will get ugly.
Remember those six top-25 opponents? Four of them come in October — and only one within the friendly confines of The Swamp.
The Gators will drop three straight against Alabama, LSU and Auburn before a “season-salvaging” win in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party at the end of October.
That win against Georgia will only stall the hemorrhaging, though. Florida’s throttling of Furman will be sandwiched by losses to the Ol’ Ball Coach and the team formerly known as the School Out West.
At 7-5, the Gators’ season will end much like it did last year: in disappointment and a second-tier bowl game in central Florida.
Matt Watts
twitter: @wattmatts
If you’ve been paying attention when Will Muschamp speaks, chances are you’re confident. You can feel it. Brimming with eat-you-alive swagger, Coach Boom has you believin’ that 2010 couldn’t possibly be repeated.
Florida’s new head honcho walks with a limp, and he doesn’t have gout or a broken toe. Muschamp’s “One Voice” campaign — where he is the only coach speaking to the media — has somehow blossomed a resurgence of belief in Gator Nation. Fans see potential here in Gainesville.
But as even Muschamp will tell you, potential doesn’t mean squat. It means you haven’t done anything — perfect for these Gators.
The players on this roster wear the same orange-and-blue uniforms of those who hoisted the national championship trophy twice in the last five years. They practice in the same nuclear-hot weather. They even run out of the same tunnel on game days.
But that’s where the similarities stop.
This isn’t your big brother’s Florida Gators.
This isn’t the team that incited thousands of Gainesvillians to rush the streets of Midtown in 2006-07 and again in 2008-09, clinging to light poles and chanting fight songs into the night.
This team isn’t the best in the country. It’s not even the best in the state. Expectations need to follow suit.
Fans need to realize what Urban Meyer accomplished in his short time at Florida is an aberration. They need to understand that the Gators are implementing brand new systems under a brand new coaching staff, all while playing quite possibly the most difficult schedule in the nation.
The Gators are not No. 1.
In fact, they’ll be lucky to win one game in the month of October, when Florida plays Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Georgia. Only one of those games is in The Swamp — against the preseason Southeastern Conference favorite Crimson Tide.
Sure, Florida has the usual cupcakes on the schedule, meaning six wins and bowl eligibility should be a lock. But don’t let pseudo confidence and potential trick you into expecting greatness this season.
Tyler Jett
twitter: @tyler_jett
Boom … expect a lot of that from the defense this year. There better be.
If Will Muschamp wants a fast start, if the players and returning coaches want to wash the sour taste that was the 2010 season out of their mouths, they will need to lean on the D with a dose of conservative offense.
For all the sizzle that came from the Age of Urban (or Tebow, or Percy), it was always the team’s defense that proved key. During the 2006 title run, when Chris Leak validated his career and Tim Tebow stole your hearts, UF ranked a respectable 19th in total offense. The defense, meanwhile, was sixth.
Remember pre-Jaguars Reggie Nelson? Remember long-hair-don’t-care Earl Everett chasing down Troy Smith sans helmet? (boom).
And in 2008, more of the same. The offense was ranked 15th, defense was ninth, and the Gators sealed the season by holding Sam Bradford and the Sooners’ super-sexy no-huddle attack to 14 points. (boom).
If this year’s squad wants even a taste of that kind of success, the Gators will again need to take no prisoners on defense. Sure, Charlie Weis has four Super Bowl rings; but, more than masterminding explosive offenses, he has been successful because he adequately fits his style to the personnel, something that held UF back under former coordinator Steve Addazio.
Weis has already joked you can count on no hands how many times Johnny B will run the option. Instead, expect Florida to play to its strengths: Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey.
Which brings us back to the defense, the reason Muschamp was hired. Though the team lost its two best players (Ahmad Black and Janoris Jenkins), it should make up for it with a stronger defensive line, led by Dominique Easley, Omar Hunter, Jaye Howard and Sharrif Floyd (boom).
Muschamp is also taking the leash off the animal that is Ronald Powell (boom). And expect Jon Bostic and Jelani Jenkins to take steps forward at linebacker (boom).
Maybe Weis can get the offense dropping points like it’s 1996. But UF’s success won’t be measured by that. This year, it’s going to be all about the hits, the picks, the booms.
Greg Luca
twitter: @gregluca
Experts across the nation, and across this page, have outlined why fans should expect disappointment in 2011.
John Brantley isn’t who we thought he was, Janoris Jenkins and Ahmad Black are gone, and the offensive line is in shambles.
But there are two reasons that might not matter: Will Muschamp and Charlie Weis.
The tag-team of coaching wizards has had success everywhere they’ve been, and there’s no reason for that to change at Florida.
In eight seasons as a collegiate defensive coordinator, Muschamp led six top-10 units.
His first year calling the plays, he took LSU from No. 75 nationally in total defense to No. 8. A year later, the Tigers touted the top-ranked defense and brought a national championship to Baton Rouge, La.
Never before has a Muschamp-coordinated defense been worse than it was in the year before he took the reins — a scary proposition as he inherits a UF defense that ranked ninth nationally a season ago.
The real concern is on offense, where the Gators finished No. 82 in 2010. Enter Weis, who took over the No. 81 offense when he started at Notre Dame in 2005 and instantly elevated it to 10th.
In two seasons under Weis, quarterback Brady Quinn bested his totals from the previous two seasons by 2,928 yards and 43 touchdowns, all while throwing 11 fewer interceptions.
Given Quinn’s pro career, it’s easy to heap the praise on Weis.
Coordinators like Weis are often given the moniker of “mad scientist,” and anyone who watched Florida’s offense last season knows there are enough ineffectual, seemingly lifeless parts for Weis to create his own version of Frankenstein’s monster.
Weis’ best-case scenario resembles the creation from Mary Shelley’s novel: gigantic, fast, smart, unstoppable.
The worst-case? An abomination reminiscent of the modern interpretations: slow, hulking, more known for it’s frightening style than incompetent substance.
The difference between the two could be the difference between a 10-win success story and a five-win meltdown.
