After our show at Jeff’s Deli on Friday night, we comics decided a few squirts might induce slumber. We bolted to Mother’s Pub.
Several patrons came up to me and said, “Hey man, I read your Alligator column. You’re the bookie.”
Two of the seven tried to place a bet with me. The other five asked whom I liked in the playoffs.
They just didn’t get it.
Stop betting. Even Pete Rose couldn’t win betting baseball. The deck is stacked against you.
Today’s piece will explain how bookmaking actually works. Readers who muddle through my minimal mathematics will be rewarded with an infallible system.
Most gamblers know about vigorish. The “vig” is the 10 percent bookies skim off the top of a losing bet to ensure the occupation stays profitable. Gamblers bet $110 to win a $100, or $1,100 to win a $1,000.
The “all-knowing” Wikipedia defines vig:
“Bookmakers use this concept to make money on their wagers regardless of the outcome. Because of the vigorish concept, bookmakers should not have an interest in either side winning in a given sporting event. They are interested, instead, in getting equal action on each side of the event. In this way, the bookmaker minimizes his risk and always collects a small commission from the vigorish. The bookmaker will normally adjust the odds, or line, to attract equal action on each side of an event.”
To summarize, “Joe bets $100 on the Giants; Frank bets $100 on Dallas. The bookmaker lays them off against each other and snares $10 for his trouble.
This is complete bullshit.
In today’s computerized world, most bookies operate over the Internet via offshore casinos, so they don’t have individual control to adjust a line and balance their books. Offshore services charge standard fees to take action for bookies throughout the world. The bookmaker checks his weekly printout and then pays off or collects.
Here’s how the system works.
The first week of the NFL season, 13 games were played. Of the 13, the bookie cares about five or six.
For a Miami bookie, the Buffalo-Miami game; for a New York bookie, the Giants-Dallas game; and whatever game CBS sees as the match up of the week. All these games would be loaded with action.
Sunday night’s game is always significant for every bookie because it is a gamblers last chance to “bail out” or break even.
The other seven or eight games would have minimal money spread across the board.
So, for argument’s sake, let’s say five games are top heavy with money. Because of the “juice,” the “vig,” the 10 percent, all the bookie has to do is win two out of those five games, and he breaks even. In any occupation besides bookmaking, when you’re right only 40 percent of the time, you’re broke.
The bookie also provides “specialty bets” such as parlays, teasers, reverse bets and other novelties. These “sucker bets” help bookies balance their sheet and usually involve “double juice,” or 20 percent vig.
If the bookie wins three of those crucial five games, he wins big. If he wins four of those five games, he crushes. To beat the bookie, betters must win four out of those five top-heavy games. On average, that might happen twice a season. The bookie cleans the players’ clocks the rest of the schedule.
My first year in the business, I had two partners: Blinky and Red. We had 100 customers. I asked them how many winners they thought we’d have by season’s end.
Blinky squinted, reflected and said, “Twelve.”
Red didn’t stutter; he shot back, “Eight.”
When the season ended, we had no winners. The following year: 200 customers, no winners. The following year: 350 customers — no winners. We didn’t count money. We measured stacks by inches.
Mathematics is a pure science. If you bet 10 games over a week, a year or a lifetime, you need six winners to break even. “Juice” dictates that you hit seven out of 10 games to win a little cash. To win real money, you must win eight out of 10 games. It can’t be done against the Vegas spread.
If bookmakers ran the Treasury, there’d be a budget surplus every year. Their lines are laser accurate.
Here’s the tip I promised about how to come out ahead betting sports: Take your money out of your left-hand pocket. Count it. Study the football lines. Now, pick a team you like. Count it again, then fold your money and place it back in the same pocket.
Later, spend it on something productive — like a hooker and an eight ball?
If you’re still compelled to wager, make a “mind bet.” If it loses, all you’ll have lost is your mind.
Bill O’Connor is a Vietnam vet, former Bronx firefighter and pub and restaurant owner. He is currently a journalism major at UF and a stand-up comic. The highly irreverent and acerbic O’Connor performs free stand-up comedy in various locations around Gainesville.
