Look at Florida’s “Keys to Success” chart, and you will only see one assignment for the offense: succeed in the red zone.
Of course, the chart as a whole is an oversimplified way to explain wins and losses. It only consists of four keys.
But since Urban Meyer brought his super spread option to Gainesville in 2005, the amount of points Florida’s offense posted has directly correlated with the group’s red-zone success. In the Age of Urban, the offense’s peak seasons were 2007 and 2008, when the Gators averaged 43.1 points per game and scored on 89 percent of red-zone possessions.
But in Meyer’s other four seasons, Florida has scored on just 75 percent of trips inside the opponents’ 20-yard line, making this year’s red-zone efficiency rate (73 percent) troubling not because of how low it is but because of how little it tells fans about the offense.
Why are the Gators managing only 27.6 points per game, the lowest since 2002?
Yes, Florida’s red-zone offense has been bad. But, by comparison, the team’s offense outside the opponent’s 20-yard line has been much worse.
This season’s offense is scoring about the same amount of points (18 per game) inside the red zone as Tim Tebow and Friends did last year. But the 2009 unit averaged 36 total points.
Big plays have made the biggest difference between the two groups. Florida averaged almost 18 points outside the red zone last year while this season’s group is scoring less than 10 per game, the worst rate since Meyer became coach.
Translation: the Gators aren’t explosive.
Jeff Demps’ leg injury and Chris Rainey’s suspension have hampered the running game. Through seven games last season, the duo had each busted a pair of long touchdown runs. This season, Demps has scored on two big runs while Rainey has been sidelined for buckwild texting.
But the difference in long runs negligible. And, with scores coming from three interception returns and one kickoff return, Florida’s defense and special teams are pitching in more than they did last year.
This really leaves only one scapegoat: the dump-n-run passing game. John Brantley has only thrown one touchdown from beyond the 20 — in the season opener on a fourth-quarter Hail Mary to Rainey in double coverage.
The play was so Les-Miles lucky that Meyer looked on with disgust as his team celebrated the score. But at least they could celebrate then.
Through seven games last season, Tebow awkwardly windmilled the ball for seven touchdowns longer than 20 yards.
But if Brantley is the culprit, he isn’t performing the unintentional heist solo. Sure, Florida’s passing offense is the SEC’s fifth worst (or eighth best, depending on your outlook). But of Tebow’s seven long-ball, big-nuts touchdowns, only two were directed at receivers on this year’s team.
Both of those went to Deonte Thompson. And would you blame Brantley if he forgot to look in Thompson’s direction for the rest of the season?
You can’t defend Florida’s red-zone problems. But that’s not the only area of concern. The Gators have struggled inside the 20 before and still scored in bunches.
The key for the Gators is to start finding the end zone from far away, particularly with the ball coming off Brantley’s right arm, because Florida has not outscored opponents enough this season.
And that’s the greatest “Key to Success.”
