Entering one of the most important games of the season, Florida is in a familiar position: on the bubble.
In the middle of its Southeastern Conference season, UF (17-7, 6-4 SEC) will play a rare nonconference game Saturday night at 6 against Atlantic-10 Conference opponent Xavier (16-7, 8-2 A-10) in a matchup with potential NCAA Tournament implications.
“I’d say right now Florida is bubble-icious. It could go either way,” ESPN college basketball analyst Doug Gottlieb said. “I’d give them better than a 50-50 shot. My expectations are for them to make the Tournament. They’ve just got to find a way to be more consistent.”
UF has seven games remaining before the conference tournament, with three coming against the league’s top teams: Tennessee and Vanderbilt at home, as well as a road matchup with Kentucky to close out the year.
The Gators will also play Auburn at home and road contests against Ole Miss and Georgia.
“If they win all but the Kentucky game and maybe the Ole Miss game, I still think they’re in pretty good shape,” Gottlieb said. “The Michigan State win helps you. The Florida State win doesn’t hurt you. Tennessee will be a Tournament team, and Xavier will be a Tournament team.”
To avoid a third-straight National Invitation Tournament appearance, the Gators will need to protect their home court in SEC play, and another impressive nonconference win would certainly boost their resume.
Xavier’s RPI is currently 25th in the nation, the third highest of any nonconference opponent UF has faced this season, behind only Syracuse (2) and Michigan State (20), according to realtimerpi.com
“They’ve got to beat Xavier. They’ve got to beat Tennessee. They’ve got to beat Vandy,” Gottlieb said. “They have a couple of conference road wins, and I think the Arkansas win is going to end up looking good.”
Although the nonconference matchup is going to help boost UF’s strength of schedule, coach Billy Donovan said the move was intended to be a response to the down year the SEC had last season.
Only three SEC teams, Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU, made the 2009 NCAA Tournament’s field of 65, and one of the knocks against the league was its poor nonconference scheduling, and the Bulldogs only made the Tournament by winning the SEC Tournament and locking up an automatic bid.
“There was definitely a kneejerk reaction in our league in the spring meetings because, without the win by Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament, we would have only had two teams in the NCAA Tournament,” Donovan said.
UF capitalized on the more competitive nonconference slate early in the season, capturing big victories against then-No. 2 Michigan State and Florida State. But a three-game losing skid in December — including a loss at home to South Alabama — and an up-and-down conference season put the Gators back on the bubble.
“It’s important for them to finish strong because they had a strong start, that horrible three-game stretch then have been up-and-down in a league that is still a bit top-heavy,” Gottlieb said. “You want to show you’re one of those top four or five teams in the SEC.”
