The Atlantic hurricane season may be months away, but meteorologists are forecasting more storms than last year in the 2010 season.
Steve Letro, the meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Jacksonville, said weakening El Niño conditions could contribute to an increase in hurricanes in the upcoming season, which officially starts June 1.
El Niño is a change in the atmosphere and ocean water temperatures in the Pacific ocean and off the northern coast of South America.
El Niño occurs when the water gets warmer and creates a stronger wind shear in the Caribbean and Atlantic ocean, Letro said.
Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said that although El Niño is weakening, it’s far too early to determine if it will be a factor in the upcoming season.
A strong El Niño tends to suppress hurricane activity in terms of number and duration, Bell said.
Bell said there has been an increase in hurricane activity in the U.S. since 1995.
But last year’s hurricane activity fell below average because of this effect, according to Bell.
According to the National Hurricane Center, there were three hurricanes in 2009.
Letro said El Niño is also part of the reason the U.S. has had an unusually cooler winter this year.
Nevertheless, Letro said, it’s important that people focus on the fact that a hurricane could potentially hit their area, not just the numbers, because the path of a hurricane is not predictable.
“When you see the forecast for the number of storms coming up, our reaction should be ‘that’s nice, but I don’t know where any of them are going to go,’” he said.
